No More Hurricanes

First, I will admit I did not watch the 52-24 Tulsa debacle with my full attention. The Phillies were beginning their defense of the Pennant in full high def, while Tulane was available only via a grainy, possibly illegal internet feed.

No matter. Hard to draw constructive tactical lessons from yet another rout. On the surface, the game was perplexing. As predicted here, Tulane did possess the ball an awful lot, mostly through the air: QB Ryan Griffin was 36-53, 412 yards, 2 TDs; 35 rushes for a decent 117 yards, 36 minutes ToP. Yet, how can Tulane run 91 plays, score 24 points, 527 yards of offense, simply have the ball that much - and still get decked?

Our collective football frame of reference is the NFL and the proto-NFL (SEC)- and the collective associates a three TD loss into one team being dominated. But that is not C-USA.

You have to think about C-USA a little different. Defenses in the NFL tend to fail in stages- sort of a linear progression from good-to-okay-to-bad. C-USA defenses tend to gap down, a geometric reaction versus arithmetic- like a bridge sagging, sagging, sagging, then utter failure. I tend to think that stems from a talent gap factor. There is an ability step down in the NFL from star to starter to reserve. But that gap is miniscule to the step down in C-USA. You can have a pro prospect one place, and a guy who might not start for Harvard at another. In the NFL you might occassionally have one or two defenders who totally can’t handle their assignments. In C-USA, you routinely have three or four guys who are just over matched.

Thus, Tulane’s defense Saturday is explained. Their improvement over last year is tied to a couple of transfers and Shakiel Smith. They can have extended the sag capacity- but total collapse is still possible. Thus, this Tulane gap downward is understandable- decked for 52 points and 350+ yards rushing. Further proof of collapse: ten Tulsa players had double digit rushing totals. Ten! Five of those ten averaged more than ten yards a pop. I honestly don’t know if I ever seen that- even from an option team.

Tulane’s offense, particularly the quarterback, wasn’t terrible. Certainly, the Tulane offense did not deserve to be on the short end of this kind of rout. Ryan Griffin supporters have won the argument at this point. Yet again, he turned in that 65% completion percentage, low turnover day. The big yardage totals surfaced when faced with the typical challenged C-USA secondary.

But Tulane was not able to engineer that same defensive collapse in Tulsa- where 500 yards of offense becomes 50+ points in 25 minutes versus a mere 24 points in 35 minutes.

Frankly, the skill position players outside of the quarterback just don’t give Tulane much of anything “special” right now. I mean, the Tulane offense can’t complete 60-65% of your pass attempts, generate 500 yards of offense, without passable play. Guys seem to be standing in the right places at the right time, blocking the right guys, organized football plays are run competently.

But none of the receivers put pressure on anyone. Robottom is the best of the lot- and he defines pedestrian, competent C-USA wideout. He just isn’t going to blossom into a perimeter attacker, touchdown maker, second team all C-USA star we had all hoped for four years ago. He is a an okay second wide out being asked to play the top spot- but that dazzle you need in this League to generate free scores, that flip the field position talent is just not there.

DJ Banks is the second guy- and I just don’t see what the buzz is about. Ryan Griffin, for all his faults, is distributing the ball accurately- and Banks can’t get anything big going. Double his season totals and you get 50 catches, 480 yards. Those are “so what?” numbers. Here is another problem: together Banks and Robottom have three TD receptions. How many games can you win in this big score League if your top two receivers project to have six TD catches for the season?

And, to reiterate last week, this three-headed Darkwa, Willaims, Jason rushing “monster” is really either two guys stealing carriers from the best one or three okay-minus backs routinely unable to distinguish themselves from even each other. I will also point out this dynamic trio has a terrible 18 catches combined for the season.

Just not a whole lot of juice from the top five (in terms of total touches) skill options. It is hard to win in offense-friendly C-USA when none of your wide outs, tight ends or running backs are better than mediocre. Who is even a third team all C-USA player on offense?

Prediction Thursday

It took until the sixth game of this season (plus the absence of QB Case Keenum from Houston), but the big exam, a real C-USA style audit, is finally here. Saturday presents Tulane with a genuine example of the special football neighborhood the Green Wave frequents: the full tilt, forty points a game, cartoon number C-USA offense- of course equipped with sling it quarterback GJ Kinne.

Hold on tight people. GJ Kinne is the real deal: a big time recruit (originally signed at Texas), career 142 passer rating, 60% completion percentage, NFL body and mid-round draft prospect. In his second career start last year, he tore the Wave up: 15 for 20, 211 yards, 1 TD- plus a 15 yard TD run and a 45 yard scramble. Tulsa rotates a variety of good backs- and for a team that looks to keep the ball in Kinne’s hands and throw first- rushes it very well. The Golden Hurricane is a certified handful on offense (ranked ninth in FBS “officially”), reflected in the New York Post putting Tulsa -18.5 over Tulane.

Now, one good thing about having picked games for so long is that a reference of sorts exists. From an ATS point of view, this season feels like 2006.

Think back to 2006- really the nadir of public confidence in the Scelfo regime. Fans were unhappy and a lot of bad karma and noise surrounded the on-field product. Yet, I posted a nifty 9-3 ATS mark by positing a lonely thought again and again: the 2006 Wave was not that bad.

Outside of two stone sacrificial lamb games- at Auburn, at LSU- Tulane was a decent 4-6 (with a win at Mississippi State). There was no FCS lay-up game either: put Southern in for Auburn and Tulane was 5-7. Tulane quietly fielded more collected C-USA talent than Toledo has yielded since: Ricard, Forte, Route, the vastly underrated Jeremy Foreman. Davis, Brown and Williams were light years ahead of the current receiving group. The 2006 Tulane team would have beaten the 2007-2009 versions by two scores and be a six-win team versus this year's schedule.

I’m not really eager to rehash ’06, other than to take this lesson. The “feel bad” train was so loaded (no one thought they could beat Mississippi State, a game I felt Tulane probably could not lose)- that you could get rich looking at the fat lines and taking Tulane again and again.

I’ve pretty much ridden that theory, that the pre-season consensus of “Tulane=horrible” was wrong- and taking the Wave again and again en route to a 4-1 ATS start. And I’m on it again here- particularly as an unusual Army loss plumps a fat number back up again. Sure, the loss to the Cadets was embarrassing- but when a team only allow 343 yards of offense, said team was probably unlucky or unreal stupid to get blown out. Frankly, Tulsa -18.5 just seems a little rich.

There is risk. Tulane’s defense has improved, mostly against the run- but with Keenum out, it has not seen this sort of firepower directed at the passing game. But Tulsa is 3-3; I’m pretty sure Tulane would be square playing that schedule too (FCS opponent, plus Memphis and Bowling Green are terrible). Plus, Tulsa’s defense is a 2008 Tulane level wreck: 101st overall, 115th against the pass.

As we saw against Rutgers and Houston, Tulane can adequately both run the ball and possess the ball via the pass- generate some points and possession time. Tulane can absolutely score 24-ish here- which starts forcing Tulsa into some crazy numbers in order to cover. Frankly, Tulane’s defense looks like it might have enough life to keep that from happening. If the Wave plays defense like it did at Rutgers, Tulsa ain’t scoring six, seven TDs here. “18.5” is a BIG number- five TDs probably doesn’t see Tulsa through. Reference the Houston game, where everything that could go wrong for Tulane in the first quarter went wrong, and the Cougars were still touch and go with that giant number.

Intangibles look good too. The Army rout hopefully means Toledo has got his team’s attention- and Tulane has actually played harder and smarter on the road. Kind of a trap game too for Tulsa- the Golden Hurricane has a bye, then Notre Dame.

Bottom line: Tulane probably scores into the 20s against this poor Tulsa defense, scoring at that level necessitates some good ball possession numbers. Tulsa will have to play both great and quick to get to 40+. That cover seems problematic. So, while it will be hard for Tulane to keep up (the offensive firepower discrepancy is the biggest Tulane will probably face this year), it is too much of a head start. Tulane +18.5 over Tulsa is the pick to get to 5-1 ATS.

Needs Improvement

Well, I don’t exactly know what to make of that 37-13 loss versus Tulsa- other than curious, forced throw by Banks got me my cover. Tulane never was in the game (bad)- but had some chances to get into said game (good)- but never did (bad). But the Wave was a single tipped interception from a one score game in the first half… and Tulsa is one of the three problematic games on their schedule. Toledo can be zapped for coaching for a good loss against clearly superior outfit (say the decision to kick a field goal down 20)- but he did in fact get his good loss and got the first of two problematic games in a row off the schedule. It would churlish to say it wasn't closer than the socreboard indicated.

Clearly, Tulane was better, more entertaining, than the slop they rolled out there the second half of last season. The skill position axis of Williams, Robottom and Anderson has promise. The defense allowed three TDs- but one was the result of a turnover in their own red zone, the other strictly garbage time.

Frankly, that is better than last year- smatterings of competence on both offense and defense are going to be enough to beat some sub. 500 conference outfits. The Wave is both going to win more than the last year and simply just be in more games. I assure you: more wins this year! I'm not going too crazy: week-to-week improvement and strong second halves of seasons have not been the Toledo trademark here.

Bullet thoughts:

For the 25th game of this regime, the quarterback play was again shaky. That is the number one priority in a quarterback League- and this regime just can’t get that position “ready”. Very unfortunate- particularly since this a League where second tier physical specimens can play (Irvin and Elliot).

First five offensive snaps: two timeouts, sack, one off-side penalties.

If Tulsa’s returner is “the greatest special teams player” in the League: why are we kicking to him- particularly with our coverage units?

Coach Toledo lost weight- looks better. I always thought it was a valid criticism of Scelfo when he got enormous- how can you preach fitness, etc. and look like you can only be moved when the tide is right?

#19 is a tough guy. Robottom is a football player.

The inside LB (#55) can make plays in front of him- but if he has to turn his shoulders and chase guys upfield… forget it.

How can Banks look slow on kick returns (multiple guys making contact before the 18) and so elusive running the “Pelican”. Maybe he is more agile than quick? If so, perhaps miscast as a KR.
On Tulane’s first red zone possession, Banks playing QB for two huge snaps in a row says a lot about the level of confidence Toledo has in the routine quarterback preparation .

Brace Youself For A Golden Hurricane

Time to kick-off the seventh year of Prediction Thursday! ATS record: 42-20 (plus one push and one scratch).

For our first Prediction Thursday of the year, the New York Post puts our Green Wave +13.5 over Tulsa- suggesting an improved Wave! I’m sympathetic to that. Like just about everyone, I think Tulane will be better than last year’s 2-10 disaster. And that improvement goes beyond a churlish “it almost has to be”.

That being said, even if you have the Wave at over .500 for the season, this is a game you have to be carrying in your “trouble bucket”. Even an 8-4 Tulane team probably loses this game, right?

I read a lot of analysis here and other chat boards about how Tulane can take advantage of this or that Tulsa change or flaw. It is probably all correct. My problem is getting past the more basic questions: can we block these guys? can our defensive front seven hang with these guys?

Frankly, Tulsa is in a different class than the Wave. The Golden Hurricane came in here last year and dumped an obscene 489 yards rushing on the Wave (although Tarrion Adams is gone). With their myriad of skill position changes, I doubt the 'canes will match that total again. But they scored 56 without really throwing the ball at all- what if that changes and they roll out the whole attack? With our defensive line/linebacker issues, I can’t see how Tulsa doesn’t hang a crazy number on our Wave again.

Let’s put it this way- if I asked you one thing the Wave should be able to do tomorrow, I think we’d all agree rushing the football is at the top of the list (Anderson is a legit C-USA cartoon number contributor). But, if I were to follow up that question with which outfit will rush for more yards... well, that is a problem.

I think the improvement Tulane will show this year will come from three areas: roster spots 23-44 (special teams now and some depth in November), improving quarterback, a healthy tailback. Unfortunately, two of those three don’t help here: this isn’t a game about squeezing out a score or play on specials, too early for depth to matter much, and an arguably season-long improving quarterback will be at his “least improved” in game one. Anderson will help of course.

Worse, the one area that didn’t improve- the defense- is going to be front and center.

The Wave did show early last year that their intact roster can play at a level well above the crew that finished the season. But unlike Alabama and East Carolina, the Wave is not going to catch a team just trying to move past the game intact. Tulsa will be loaded for bear- working out the offensive kinks, intent on putting on a show for the television. If this were week eight, with the Tulane quarterback well into an improvement mode, complementing Anderson and a Tulsa team merely facing a routine game test, I’d be inclined to say Tulane can score 28 here, so take the points and root for the clock.

But I can’t shake the impression this a bad time to catch Tulsa- so I’ll take Tulsa and give the Wave 13.5

Only Two Touchdowns?

Most of the official lines for the first week of college football came out yesterday. I must admit I was more than a little surprised to find Tulsa a mere -14 over Tulane in New Orleans.

Last year the Golden Hurricane smoked the Wave- handily covering a -28.5. Tulsa got and then covered the hook too- very embarrassing.

I'm not sure people's expectations about the two clubs are much different now than late last November. Most folks are still picking Tulane last in a bad League- and Tulsa figures to be top division team at least. I figured it to be north of three scores at least… well, that sort of eliminates the suspense of the first Prediction Thursday here.

Swept Away By A Golden Hurricane

This morning finds the Tulane Green Wave +28.5 over Tulsa. Ugh. The hook too; couldn't just make it an even four scores? A long way from the heady days when the Wave was three touchdowns over Army.

And that is just it. In just a month, the Wave has moved some three-four touchdowns south in Vegas’ eyes. Sure, there have been some key injuries at the skill positions. But let’s not go to crazy. Despite some obvious upside, Andre Anderson was on pace for a 1300-ish rushing year- pretty okay in our League. Jeremy Williams probably was going to catch around fifty balls- nowhere near good enough for a number one receiver in C-USA.

Something else has clearly soured here. And that 28-point spread moves this game from football contest to psychology experiment.

I mean, Tulane isn’t even in Tulsa’s class right now. But the funny thing is that it is sort of an important game. Scratch that: "important" is wrong- "semi-interesting" is better. It is a referendum on Bob Toledo and the locker room. If the Wave gets beat 70-12 it would lend a lot of credence to "tales" that a goodly number of veteran players have not bought into Toledo.

By spring I suppose most of the miscreants will be gone- so it is a story that is over probably by Christmas. And while I don’t think Toledo is a very good coach- I’m not exactly sure moving veteran players aside for his recruits is exactly uncalled for.

Still, this game is a test of the temperature in the locker room. There is zero to play for except the coach and each other. Toledo has failed every single test so far- I see no reason he passes this one. Tulsa utterly destroys the Wave in this spot. I’ll seek to move my ATS record to 7-3 (with one push) giving Tulane 28.5 and watching Tulsa run to something well north of 40.

Whew

Whew- that was close.

The Tulane Green Wave salvaged its season last night- going on the road as a modest ‘dog to beat the quality mid-major operation that is Tulsa. The Wave really, really, really needed that one. While the out of conference season was full of pleasant surprises (get bent Tigers!)- this opening three game C-USA conference slate was tough. I’d have preferred 2-1- but they were road ‘dogs twice, against squads that figure to be upper division teams, in that three game stretch. So 1-2 will do. Just couldn't afford the disappointment associated with a doughnut after their solid start.

It is funny how just one win changes a conference season. Last year, a key win over Tulsa in the conference tournament produced convincing evidence that Tulane had restored itself a germane program in our semi-decent League. This year, Tulane was one loss away from a potential season-long slog from 0-3 back to something like break even. Now Tulane is right back to a legitimate shot at double-digit League wins.

For a first round conference bye and twenty total wins, the Wave probably needs to sweep the next five, get four at a minimum. Three are on the road- but they get horrid Rice (3-13) twice, SMU is bad and a good Tulane C-USA team should beat East Carolina even away from New Orleans. UTEP at 11-4 does look tough on paper- but if you look closely that current mark is close to outright fraud.

They can’t lose to the Owls or Mustangs and be credible- but I guess they could survive a slip versus ECU or UTEP. But a good 20-win team in a decent mid-major League has to play consistent night after night- it is part of last season’s 10-6 legacy. Outside of Memphis, they’ve proven themselves relevant to the League story. Now, Tulane has the pressure of winning the winnable games- or there is disappointment.

When Does Rice Get Here?

Ugh.

The stupid New York Post puts the stupid Tulsa Golden Hurricane -5 over Tulane. Now, Tulsa is by no means a disaster. They feature a decent road win at Colorado in the last two weeks, a tough road loss in multiple overtime to UCF.

But the line surely indicates the good bloom is off the Wave’s quality start. At 0-2 in League play, tonight game in Oklahoma is probably the proverbial “must win” for either the 20-win season or 10-win conference season expected after Tulane roared to a 10-4 start- with positive wins over St John’s, Georgia, Auburn and Louisiana State

The schedule certainly lightens up some; Rice and SMU frankly can’t get here fast enough. But .500 in C-USA could be a fifty-fifty proposition with a loss tonight.

Tulane finished fourth in the League last year, winning ten games. But obviously, C-USA is up from the utter train wreck it was last year. Concerning the NCAA tournament, they’re probably on track to get back to being a multiple bid League: UTEP or Houston could join Memphis with a 14-2 League mark. One will get there. Another outfit might get in the NIT- which leaves the League in the running for four post-season teams.

As indicated above, Tulane was in that top four mix last year- but obviously was no where near NIT level- so the League is better. It’ll be hard to march that ten win mark from last year- even though this year’s team is clearly better- for example: 3-0 versus the SEC- than last year’s outfit. Only this casual image of Jennifer Whittington- the reigning Miss Food City- is of solace.

A Golden Hurricane Can Go For Forty

Tough beat last week. The kid makes the field goal- stretching a hypothetical Tulane lead to nine- and I get a cover at -1.5 even if Memphis scores again. Alas, miss it- and lose. Anyway, this morning, the New York Post puts Tulsa -6 over Tulane. After weeks of tricky lines, this week we are presented with the first lay-up ATS since Mississippi State & Houston.

That line is not irrational- after all, Tulsa probably deserved to lose last week versus a bad Mustang outfit. The spread anticipates a sort of typical football game breaking out Saturday. Figure Tulsa is better than Tulane- but if Forte ravages their very bad rushing defense for north of 150 yards- it would be hard, in a traditional sense, for Tulsa to accumulate enough possessions and TOP to guarantee separation on the scoreboard.

But, I don’t know. Frankly, we’ve seen this game this year already. Yes, Tulane is not a debacle. But this season we’ve learned that, if you wanted to design a team to torment the Green Wave, make them look like a debacle, it would look something like Houston, right? A team that can throw the ball at will at our struggling back seven and block our okay-plus defensive front. A team that can score a point total- 35+ if need be- that Tulane’s run-first offense can’t hope to match. A team that is a step up in overall class.

Unfortunately for Tulane, Tulsa is a lot like Houston. The Golden Hurricane is right out of C-USA central casting- beginning with a big number quarterback, Paul Smith, who averages north of 350 yards (!!!) passing a game. There are a ton of C-USA style skill position players who can generate ridiculous numbers. I doubt the Wave can consistently cover and stop one key guy- let alone three/four.

Now, Tulsa did struggle last week- but that is sort of actually helpful: keeps the Golden Hurricane focused, keeps this line under one score. And I’m not fooled. A flat week aside, Tulsa is a clear step up from the recent collection of conference teams (plus Army) that have populated the schedule. Take out Oklahoma, they are a darn consistent 5-2. CBS carries them as one of the top half of teams in college football in their power poll. Neither of those facts is true of, say, UAB nor SMU.

Tulsa is “very bad against the run in general”. But it is still an open question whether they are “very bad against the run when they can focus on stopping it while totally ignoring the passing game”. Plus, since Tulsa figures to go for a big number here; Tulane must try to score some points. With the whole Tulsa defense in the box, Tulane needing to score points, I imagine the Wave has to try and throw it more than usual from the get go. I’m not optimistic.

Candidly, that Tulsa offense is a top notch, scary C-USA outfit. Tulane can’t stop Paul Smith, can’t prevent five-six TDS, simply can’t keep up here- just a bad match-up. Tulsa scores big and wins big. Consequently, I’ll take Tulsa and give six.

Memphis, Memphis, Memphis

Tulane posted their biggest win in quite awhile last night: 54-51 over Tulsa. Seriously, when was the last time Tulane beat a 20-win team? Away from home?

It was a gritty affair- but Tulane remained pretty organized despite the hard won natue of every point and possession. Thirteen turnovers are not that bad in that sort of game.

They did miss an absolute ton of free throws- including a real clutch pair late (although Kevin Simms did make a pair of “clutch-er” ones). Maybe Tulane didn’t shoot well either- but you know, Tulsa won those 20 games largely by playing great defense. For example, Memphis scored 72 and 69. Oklahoma scored 58. Their last seven league games: 58, 50, 65, 60, 64, 62, 51. Tulsa is a very good defensive team- for all their faults, they can consistently keep C-USA teams in the 50s, low 60s. It is what Tulsa does when they play well- and kudos to Tulsa, they did play well defensively.

And even if Tulane was not very good offensively; they were very solid on defense- particular on the perimeter- high effort and high discipline: nine steals, Tulsa had maybe six or seven real good looks from the arc all night, one trey in the whole second half. Tulsa didn’t shoot well either- largely because Tulane kept the answer to this question: “how many easy transition baskets did they have?”- to “acceptable”- particularly when you consider how many shots the Wave missed. If Tulane plays that sort of defense tonight- Memphis probably can’t get to the 85 needed to humiliate the Wave by 30.

You know, when two teams who really aren’t that bad, pretty close to NIT good- play a desperation game with a real commitment to physical defense (even a little thuggish, a little attitude at times), the product can look a little raw. Tulane hasn’t played a tournament game with real consequence in a long while- maybe we forgot what that sort of desperation looks like?