A Golden Hurricane Can Go For Forty

Tough beat last week. The kid makes the field goal- stretching a hypothetical Tulane lead to nine- and I get a cover at -1.5 even if Memphis scores again. Alas, miss it- and lose. Anyway, this morning, the New York Post puts Tulsa -6 over Tulane. After weeks of tricky lines, this week we are presented with the first lay-up ATS since Mississippi State & Houston.

That line is not irrational- after all, Tulsa probably deserved to lose last week versus a bad Mustang outfit. The spread anticipates a sort of typical football game breaking out Saturday. Figure Tulsa is better than Tulane- but if Forte ravages their very bad rushing defense for north of 150 yards- it would be hard, in a traditional sense, for Tulsa to accumulate enough possessions and TOP to guarantee separation on the scoreboard.

But, I don’t know. Frankly, we’ve seen this game this year already. Yes, Tulane is not a debacle. But this season we’ve learned that, if you wanted to design a team to torment the Green Wave, make them look like a debacle, it would look something like Houston, right? A team that can throw the ball at will at our struggling back seven and block our okay-plus defensive front. A team that can score a point total- 35+ if need be- that Tulane’s run-first offense can’t hope to match. A team that is a step up in overall class.

Unfortunately for Tulane, Tulsa is a lot like Houston. The Golden Hurricane is right out of C-USA central casting- beginning with a big number quarterback, Paul Smith, who averages north of 350 yards (!!!) passing a game. There are a ton of C-USA style skill position players who can generate ridiculous numbers. I doubt the Wave can consistently cover and stop one key guy- let alone three/four.

Now, Tulsa did struggle last week- but that is sort of actually helpful: keeps the Golden Hurricane focused, keeps this line under one score. And I’m not fooled. A flat week aside, Tulsa is a clear step up from the recent collection of conference teams (plus Army) that have populated the schedule. Take out Oklahoma, they are a darn consistent 5-2. CBS carries them as one of the top half of teams in college football in their power poll. Neither of those facts is true of, say, UAB nor SMU.

Tulsa is “very bad against the run in general”. But it is still an open question whether they are “very bad against the run when they can focus on stopping it while totally ignoring the passing game”. Plus, since Tulsa figures to go for a big number here; Tulane must try to score some points. With the whole Tulsa defense in the box, Tulane needing to score points, I imagine the Wave has to try and throw it more than usual from the get go. I’m not optimistic.

Candidly, that Tulsa offense is a top notch, scary C-USA outfit. Tulane can’t stop Paul Smith, can’t prevent five-six TDS, simply can’t keep up here- just a bad match-up. Tulsa scores big and wins big. Consequently, I’ll take Tulsa and give six.