Darkness

From The Hulaballo:

Despite persistent rumors of a potential coaching change, Tulane athletic director Rick Dickson decided Wednesday to retain Bob Toledo as the head coach of the struggling Green Wave football program. Toledo has compiled a 13-35 record during his four seasons with the Wave.

Tulane gave Toledo a one-year extension with an option for the 2012 season. Toledo was also given an endorsement from University President Scott Cohen.

Despair. Darkness.

Accordingly, the blog will go black for mourning.

It Is Time

Over eight years here, only once have I argued for the head of an executive authority figure. Frankly, I am not a big fan of firing coaches. At a place like Tulane, there is no guarantee the new guy will be any better. Tulane football doesn’t attract the hot assistant, the guy looking for the next step up. Thus, the associated drama, the lost recruiting class, normally isn’t worth it- the “clear and present danger” standard is necessary.

In my opinion, the problems with Bob Toledo are clear and present. Accordingly, Tulane should remove Bob Toledo from his duties as head coach.

The current analysis on Toledo is largely backward looking- yet a coaching change should be predicated on the future. A new coach is hired to elevate existing talent, find new talent and rebuild fan base. Bob Toledo’s record is surely indefensible on those matters. His FBS record is a horrid 10-35 in a four year span- a span where every other C-USA team has played a Bowl game. But ultimately it doesn’t matter unless the new guy can advance the program.

The hypothetical “average Tulane football coach” should be able to do four things: win 4-7 regular season FBS games a year, play a bowl game every few years, graduate tons of players, have zero program embarrassments. The last time things were “normal” at Tulane was the brief stretch between Terry Bowden and the unholy duopoly of Katrina and Athletic Review- and the thoroughly mediocre Chris Scelfo made those targets.

The second half of the Scelfo tenure did not meet those goals. But I argued for his retention on the grounds above- that no one of any real merit would take this job on the heels of losing, Katrina and program review. Rather than attracting a hot SEC property (Tommy Bowden), the Wave was reduced to position coaches at North Carolina and busted coordinators at New Mexico. But now, as the Review and Katrina fades, only the losing remains. A higher class of coach could consequently be recruited to Tulane.

So what exactly about the Toledo regime does Tulane want to continue? I can’t figure that one out.

One semi-popular notion that needs to be totally disabused is that the underclassmen are increasing in talent- that Coach Toledo and staff have turned the corner there. That is simply wrong.

I’ve spent a lot of time this year writing about the disproportionate impact from the down roster player in our League. I had been trying to figure out what exactly gets a bad C-USA team to six wins. All C-USA outfits have a few quality players. But re-populating those next roster spots, the spots after the guys who clearly belong in I-A, the spots from fifteen to forty on the dress chart, with real FBS players- and subsequently removing guys who would be assets at Southern, is key. So Frank helps You Think It All Out has looked at the second tier guys and their production, trying to tear eyes away from Mackey and Smith and Griffin and Wacha.

It is not encouraging. Start with some easy, clear examples. C-USA is a quarterback League. Your second quarterback is definitely one of those guys populating the roster in the fifteen to forty range. Heck, many good-looking underclassmen prospects are already playing against Tulane this season. Well, where are ours? Do you think Toledo would be playing a barely adequate senior, with no future in the program, if he had any viable alternatives with a pulse?

Casey Robottom got hurt. This is a skill position League- so the second, third, fourth, fifth wideouts are important members of the 15 thru 40 club. Lots of room, lots of opportunity to step up. And Banks, Grant, etc. were unable to make a sustained contribution. Sure, they make an occasional play when Tulane can find a similar character on Rice or UTEP or Marshall who also should be at McNeese. Still, which of these down roster guys are as good as Chris Bush?

Same thing at running back. Orleans Darkwa can play- but who else? Of twenty or so skill players in the program- maybe two project to something north of decent, something better than Andre Anderson.

There is no renaissance here. There is no talent surge coming from this roster next year. Give me a potential skill position axis as good as the Jeremy Williams, Andre Anderson, Casey Robottom? Who are the secondary, good prospect quarterbacks like Richard Irvin and Scott Elliott? They don’t exist. And as we watched the defense decay, desperate for a youthful infusion, we learned many other positions are even worse.

Toledo couldn’t coach up the talent he inherited- Tulane has yet to win even the modest four I-A games Toldeo in inherited in 2007. He cannot find new talent. And the increasingly vacant Dome speaks volumes about his program building.

An underreported story of the Toledo era is just how exasperating mainstream fans, the quiet majority, find him. From day one, excuses and sulking and odd character acts- from obtuse lectures on teaching Tulane to win, to blaming fans for canceling the parking lot walk through, to throwing players out of practice before a McNeese State tilt, insisting on summer weight programs as if they were the problem. On and on- who doesn’t have a headshaking moment? The fact that Toledo thinks this nonsense is relevant to his underperformance suggests he just doesn’t get the job he is trying to do.

Ultimately, that is just it. He doesn’t get it. He doesn’t get non-BCS football. You can’t be a program CEO if you are clueless as to the nature of the business. He doesn’t get how to recuit the right players- even Rice, UAB, Memphis and Marshall win with their recruits on occasion. He doesn’t get the nature of offense in this League. He doesn’t get the raw importance of program development, how to be a public face. In his head, he is still the coach at UCLA.

Unlike four years ago, Tulane is not coming off real external disaster. Coupled with a repeated, demonstrated university commitment to give new coaches multiple years to get the program even semi-pointed in the right direction (back to Greg Davis really), this is a better job than four years ago. So, frankly, let’s give Tulane another chance with another coach. This experiment has run its course.

Tulane Season Prediction

I have already written that I do not think Tulane figures as most national figures predict: one of the country’s biggest train wrecks.

Much of that is predicated on the offense, which I can see as being pretty okay (in the C-USA sense). There is a formula and players here to score. There is some experience and competence at the quarterback position. Ryan Griffin is not Case Keenum or G.J. Kinne- but you easily project him into the next tier of quaterbacks already (high completion percentage, good TD/INT ratio). Casey Robottom features an important skill set for C-USA- run the X-receiver route, get a sliver of separation in a few steps and catch the resultant ball in traffic. Should Ryan be able to get the ball consistently, Robottom is a credible all League candidate. Banks at least looks like a successful C-USA perimeter attack player (athletic, quick rather than fast)- and he too will be well served by having the accurate, pitch and catch C-USA quarterback.

Even better, the offensive line might be the best collective in Toledo’s tenure. The tackles are actual quality C-USA players (although there is zero depth). There might be a semi-serviceable mix of adequate inside too once Tulane figures out who is healthy. True, moving Joey Ray into the starting line-up removes the one competent guy providing interior depth-and that is a problem that bites Tulane every year. But this collective did block good portions of the second half of last season (UTEP, Rice, SMU)... figure largely the same cast can block the bottom seven, eight teams on the schedule this year.

I think LT Hendrickson is the best player on the team- but RB Payten Jason is arguably the most talented player. Yes, he can’t seem to get healthy. But add him into the mix at running back, and like the o-line, there is a whole lot of increasingly adequate there at RB too.

I just feel there is an average C-USA offensive team looking to break out here.

I’m not as sanguine about the defense. This switch to looking to play more nickel (that is my interpretation of an active move to a 4-2-5 on first down) is, in part, confidence in the big talent upgrade the kid from Duke (Trent Mackey) seems to be bringing at ILB.

It also just as much a failure to believe Tulane has “enough” linebackers to play it straight. That position is a real mess right now. Plus, there are simply doubts the existing base coverage personnel (the top four DBs) can handle the plethora of perimeter skill players that C-USA produces- so Tulane needs to get more corners out there.

On paper, the defensive backs look a little faster-and certainly the party line seems they are going to use the extra ration of on-field DBs to press the play a little more. This new defense might be a better utilization of talent- but it isn’t a move from a position of strength. And subtracting on field LBs probably does zero to stop the woes against the run (mitigated by the fact that C-USA really isn’t about keeping teams under 130 yards of rushing). The DL doesn't seem like a bunch of stuffers either.

Still, if there were a proven orchestrator of offensive talent, a regime with a history of developing quarterbacks and C-USA skill players, I might put Tulane down as a “surprise team”- a team that might win three, four games more than expected. Then add in a schedule that sort of insulates against utter disaster. Assuming offensive competence- Rice, Army and SE Louisiana on the home slate is almost a three game head start on .500. There are another four or five games where a Tulane point total of 28ish will keep them in position to steal a pair.

But I’m just not sure Coach Toledo is up to the challenge any more. I mean, will he commit the snaps to his best chance to score 35 points- the three dozen plus pass plays needed to score big in the League? The quarterback Griffin had development time last year, but who on staff is a proven converter of development into actual capacity at any skill position? Also, while I like the offense to be competent, but who is the breakout skill player, the Toledo recruit, who translates into first team C-USA that can make the offense actually good?

If Bowden were the coach, I’d put down six plus, Scelfo would get five. Toldeo... I’d be pretty indifferent with an over/under of 3.5 Let's say 4-8, with real upside potential if either Griffin or the defensive transfers improves quicker than expected.

A Sigh of Relief

If you want to, you could look down your nose and mock Tulane’s 42-32 win over I-AA McNeese State. Certainly, a huge sigh of relief swept certain quarters of New Orleans when the result when final.

But, not here at Frank Helps You Think It All Out. If it would have been catastrophic to lose to the Cowboys, it is not cynical to be very, very relieved at the passing of the trial. How many catastrophic losses in your life have you avoided and not felt more than a little emotional charge? It is human nature- and no victory versus a corresponding real disastrous, humiliating loss should draw a completely cynical response.

And it would have been a real trial to lose. I’m not sure Coach Toledo would have been able to survive it and an associated 1-11 death spiral. And the last thing this program needs right now is another coaching change, another lost recruiting class, another sign of instability. You might laugh and say Tulane avoided rock bottom. True, but rock bottom is a bad place to be institutionally. There is a big cultural difference between hopeless rock bottom and having something to build to on- Anderson and Willaims, say?- even if slight.

So, good job Tulane!

Plus, it was a little better win in retrospect than at first glance. The Wave never was in danger of losing- took the lead in the second quarter for good, had a second half lead of three scores (42-25). McNeese never had the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to go ahead- and a cosmetic score made the game look closer than it really was.

Yes, the Tulane defense continued to be shockingly terrible. But the Wave’s top two players- the aforementioned Williams and Anderson- were unstoppable. This is potentially important because with the bad C-USA defenses that litter the remaining schedule, there could be some more wins, or a least non-embarrassing games that feature reasons to go to the Dome (editor’s note: very close to being cynical).

I’m not sure Army presents that much harder of a test. Yes, of course, there is last year’s disaster. But the Wave and Andre Anderson should be able to run the ball here- and another 160 yard rushing day should have them in this? Plus, how dialed in is Army for the Wave here? More on that for Prediction Thursday.

Cheap Toledo Tricks

What to make of this:

"Tulane football coach Bob Toledo kicked his team out of practice Wednesday because he was displeased with its performance.Tulane football coach Bob Toledo is doing about everything he can to get the attention of his under-performing team and its 0-2 season start. The latest -- just minutes ago, he tossed the team out of practice because he was unhappy with the Green Wave's effort and performance.

"They didn't want to be out there and they weren't performing so I had to do something," Toledo said. "Actually what I was going to do is I was going to start practice over, I was so mad, but all my coaches were leaving and going recruiting. So the next best thing was to get them off the field. If they don't want to practice, get them off the field."

It all feels pretty calculated to me. Not exactly disingenuous- I mean, we are dealing with kids who might really believe coach is real mad.

First, Tulane could be hanging its head a bit after being blown out twice in a row largely through no fault of its own: Tulsa and BYU being three, four TDs better no matter how well Tulane played. The Wave has a bye week this Saturday- so the practice time isn’t particularly precious. If you wanted to get their attention while maybe getting them away from football for a day or two, this is about as good a time and place as any.

Second, you want a stunt like this to result in a win- and while it is by no means a lock, if there is a winnable game on the schedule it has to be this tilt with McNeese following a week off to get ready, right?

It is a card you can play once or twice every four years- seems to be as good a time as any. And since I tend to think they will beat McNeese, if this helps them build a little momentum, fine.

It is also worth a shot because traditional coaching things: developing quarterbacks, picking coaches, playing the right guys from day one (a line-up shake-up seem to be in the works)- just don't seem to be working for Toledo for three years now.

I doubt these sort of emotional stunts work that often- but you never know: collective punishment followed by group success has been used to build men for a long time.

Needs Improvement

Well, I don’t exactly know what to make of that 37-13 loss versus Tulsa- other than curious, forced throw by Banks got me my cover. Tulane never was in the game (bad)- but had some chances to get into said game (good)- but never did (bad). But the Wave was a single tipped interception from a one score game in the first half… and Tulsa is one of the three problematic games on their schedule. Toledo can be zapped for coaching for a good loss against clearly superior outfit (say the decision to kick a field goal down 20)- but he did in fact get his good loss and got the first of two problematic games in a row off the schedule. It would churlish to say it wasn't closer than the socreboard indicated.

Clearly, Tulane was better, more entertaining, than the slop they rolled out there the second half of last season. The skill position axis of Williams, Robottom and Anderson has promise. The defense allowed three TDs- but one was the result of a turnover in their own red zone, the other strictly garbage time.

Frankly, that is better than last year- smatterings of competence on both offense and defense are going to be enough to beat some sub. 500 conference outfits. The Wave is both going to win more than the last year and simply just be in more games. I assure you: more wins this year! I'm not going too crazy: week-to-week improvement and strong second halves of seasons have not been the Toledo trademark here.

Bullet thoughts:

For the 25th game of this regime, the quarterback play was again shaky. That is the number one priority in a quarterback League- and this regime just can’t get that position “ready”. Very unfortunate- particularly since this a League where second tier physical specimens can play (Irvin and Elliot).

First five offensive snaps: two timeouts, sack, one off-side penalties.

If Tulsa’s returner is “the greatest special teams player” in the League: why are we kicking to him- particularly with our coverage units?

Coach Toledo lost weight- looks better. I always thought it was a valid criticism of Scelfo when he got enormous- how can you preach fitness, etc. and look like you can only be moved when the tide is right?

#19 is a tough guy. Robottom is a football player.

The inside LB (#55) can make plays in front of him- but if he has to turn his shoulders and chase guys upfield… forget it.

How can Banks look slow on kick returns (multiple guys making contact before the 18) and so elusive running the “Pelican”. Maybe he is more agile than quick? If so, perhaps miscast as a KR.
On Tulane’s first red zone possession, Banks playing QB for two huge snaps in a row says a lot about the level of confidence Toledo has in the routine quarterback preparation .

Closing In On Mediocrity

I spent a good deal of the off-season cautiously optimistic about Tulane’s potential for on-field improvement. Obviously, for me, the ship has sort of sailed on Coach Toledo. But if I used to bleat that Scelfo proved, prior to Katrina and the review, that an average coach doing an average job could generate 4-8 wins- perhaps an indifferent coach could then generate 2-6 victories? particularly as the review and hurricane recede from recent history? Certainly, there is reason for optimism for a move from the bottom to the top of that 2-6 win range.

Sure, there is no reason why the defense will be better once the same wears and tears of the season set upon them like last year. But this League is about quarterback and skill position play- can you regularly get to five, six touchdowns? The Wave won two games last year with no solid answers at quarterback and not a single skill position player on the pre-season all-conference team. That has to get better- the quarterback options have both at least seen the elephant and an entire camp to process the elephant under their belts and a healthy Andre Anderson in a certified C-USA cartoon numbers generator. That alone might get the Green Wave out of the bottom ten and the “two win level”.

And due to the restoration of normalcy around the university and team, the recruiting factually has gotten better. The level of Tulane’s talent almost had to improve without the city being featured under water, etc. It might not show up in the first 22 roster spots, but the next 22 should arguable improve- which should help the utter disaster our special teams have been for the last half-decade.

The schedule is not challenging- a mere move from the current ten worst teams in the country to the bottom 25 moves four games from “toss up to probable win” and another four from “probable loss to toss up”. The materials and schedule are there for six wins.

And again, I was right there in the spring: if Tulane gets quality quarterback play, the Green Wave would be better than 2008 outfits such as UAB, Marshall, UCF- all who won three League games. Four League wins… a .500 season…

I guess, in the end, I don’t think this staff can deliver that plus quarterback product. Even the most devoted Toledo-naut has to admit the regime’s worst on-field failing has been the preparation and development of the quarterback position. We are 24 games into this regime- and no one, for certain, can tell me who will start, say, the Army game. In fact, Tulane has played 24 games under Toledo, and at single kick-off, no one could tell you for sure who the quarterback would be in a month.

It is particularly frustrating, because C-USA is a League where you can coach up marginal physical prospects- see Irvin and Elliott- to run a dangerous distribution style offense. And Tulane hasn’t been able to do that for 24 games now- and I’m just doubtful this year will be any different. In our League, you can survive a mess on defense- but your quarterback has to be part and parcel of your plan to score 30+ points each week. I don’t think they will deliver.

I imagine the Green Wave will be better. Institutionally, Tulane is simply not one of the ten worst disasters in the country- the previous mess was more their best offensive player getting hurt coupled with Toledo’s second great on-field failure: an inability to get a coach, and thus players, to buy in to his defense plan.

I don’t think they can beat, short of a pretty substantial upset, Tulsa, LSU or BYU. Figure Tulane moves up said class notch- which moves Marshall, Army, UTEP, Rice, UCF, SMU and Houston into some sort of toss up category. Split those- get to three-ish, McNeese State is a tricky, but do-able fourth win. Southern Miss away is a hard one.

I guess Tulane could get four of the toss-ups- but the Green Wave could also lose to McNeese or lay down in one of the more winnable toss-ups. With this defense and uncertain quarterback projection, five/six wins seems aggressive. So I’m sitting on an improved team- particularly at RB and the second tier roster spots (particularly evident in special teams and some skill player depth)- but still 4-8.

Post tenebras spero lucem

The Tulane fan draws comfort from that title. Anyway, three weeks ago I posted some reasons for modest strategic improvement in the on-field football product. Today, I’d like to offer some hope for our tactical problem- namely the immediate three-win disaster Bob Toledo is currently inflicting on our program.

I was stuck from the get go last year on a 2-3 win campaign- but I’m feeling more bullish. A fair Vegas over/under for 2009 Tulane football would be 3.5 or 4. And I am inclined to take the over.

Mind you, I’m not arguing for any sort of Bowden-style renaissance. First of all, Coach Toledo ain’t Tommy Bowden- good or bad. But, as I’ve written before, if an average coach doing an average job can be expected to win 4-8 I-A games regularly at Tulane, then a diffident coach maybe can get them between 2-6?

Surely, Toledo’s got the “three I-A win season” down pat. And man, Coach is diffident. Except when the press is within earshot- then he is the Mr. Miyagi of three-win seasons. He is no Job in front of a microphone. Nevertheless, I am sort of feeling that Tulane is ticketed toward the upper end of that 2-6 win range next season.

Frankly, it simply does not take much to get to .500 with this schedule. Look at Rice. Is Rice really better than Tulane on defense? Since the Tulane game the Owls allowed 44 to UTEP, 31 to Army, 42 to Houston. There are big numbers littering their results every place you look. Frankly, there is no Rice renaissance- they just hit on the right quarterback in the most quarterback friendly League going since the 1980s WAC.

Point is, Rice won ten games with a Tulane-style defense. Tulane can get to six-ish with a bare modicum of improvement in the defense and any kind of mediocre offense.

And I’m a heartened abut the latter. I zapped Coach for his approach in 2007- the sacrifice of endless snaps to develop Scelfo, a quarterback with zero future here, and his inability to produce a plus skill position player outside of Forte.

Well, that wasn’t true in 2008. He did get two quarterbacks- guys seemingly with potential and definitely a future- looks at the elephant. Okay, maybe neither Moore nor Kemp project as good C-USA quarterbacks- but how about merely average? Plus, quarterbacks almost always move up after a full spring after some prolonged experience. With even a little luck, why can’t one of these guys improve from okay-minus to pretty okay?

Second, there exists a plus skill position player on the roster. Andre Anderson is an all conference player. And that is one more entering the season than last year.

They entered 2008 with zero experienced, rational answers at tailback and quarterback. Tulane had only hope- having to draw an inside straight to get even average play, let alone plus play, from skill players out there. Next year, that changes. Anderson CAN play and the story that an average C-USA quarterback emerges in September is not a pipe dream. Add a healthy Williams… they might be pretty okay over there- and able to survive a significant injury.

I still don’t think either unit projects average for C-USA. But again, even some improvement- the offense again almost has to be a whole level better- probably gets the Wave sniffing an “over 4 win” Vegas style line.

Personal Foul Tulane is How We Roll To Victory

Well, SMU came through late and got Frank Helps You Think It All Out a backdoor cover- squaring are season mark.

It was nice to showcase C-USA in all its shoot-out glory last night: defenses taking entire halves off, curious officiating, the commitment to score, score, score some more. “Personal Foul Tulane is How We Roll” got a workout too; please remember I own the t-shirt rights.

So, what do we have? Again, I know I am prone to overanalyze the Green Wave- one of the greatest psychiatric experiment going in college football. For example, Tulane plays an increasingly life-or-death struggle against one of the worst five teams in the country in their own building, committed a bunch of ill-disciplined penalties, a few turnovers, shaky special teams play- and an entire second half that would get them beat by two-three scores versus a top C-USA team. Everyone watching was praying that Jones would eschew the on-side kick late- knowing our Toledo-style special teams were almost guaranteed to fail in that spot.

Yet, the large consensus of fans think Tulane played pretty well. Who am I to disagree? C-USA is a weird League.

Shoot, Anderson did his job- generating a cartoon number- as did the entire offense in the first half. I hesitate to put the defense in the plus bucket- as SMU was a joke in the first half- and frankly, we’ve seen the defense play better in each of the first three games. And in the second half, the defense looked bored and played pretty dumb for long stretches. But if I give’em a pass in the first half, I’m inclined to give a pass for the second half too. I mean, gosh, defending SMU in that first half almost had to produce a horrid ennui.

I dunno. The Green Wave has a pair of home wins against two teams in the bottom ten or so outfits in college football. This surely validates Tulane isn’t in the worst ten teams in college football, but little else. Pre-season, my fair over/under was 3.5- pride makes me loathe to move off it in light of inconclusive evidence.

But I probably should. Frankly, the best argument for moving it to five or so is that Tulane figures to face many, many more denizens of the utter bottom- they could play five, six games against the worst fifteen teams in football.

And again, since there is now evidence they are better than that "level", you could move the Green Wave up.

Get Bent Auburn! You Too Toledo!

I have come to report progress. Of a sort.

And not simply the riotous good news that greeted the Green Wave family this morning: Get bent Auburn! Don’t come to our house without your jock. The true Tulanian- having been beat about his head since birth by SEC outfits- revels in telling our overly resourced Division brethren to stuff it.

No, I report progress of a sort. Increasing, the ennui is disapating- and Toledo-nauts increasingly admit Coach is having a terrible season.

The Tulane program is, vis-à-vis our I-A peers, underfunded and underappreciated and handicapped. But, while many loathed Scelfo, wrung their hands at his name, Scelfo categorically proved for a decade, short of a gigantic hurricane, that it was possible to win 4-7 games every year, graduate a ton of players and run a program largely free from off-field embarrassment. That is not good- but it ain’t hopeless. Scelfo won, with a very similar roster, four I-A games last year- and would have gotten a fifth had he played a I-AA team instead of Auburn. That is not good- but it ain’t hopeless. You cannot, fairly, use any part of Scelfo’s win-loss record to excuse this pending Toledo directed one, two-win disaster.

The university can’t quit on Toledo. But fairly, Coach has to do better. Part of getting better is honestly assessing your progress. For instance, a new coach’s immediately job is to elevate the level with which the current talent plays.

So far- by any objective measure- Toledo has utterly and completely failed that first test. Period. You can excuse one win- but not defend one win.

But a measure of man’s character is how he reacts and improves. He could quit whinging to the papers about absolutely everything and take stock of his own work. His “idiot” predecessor cajoled four I-A wins from this mob, and four plus wins from many similar mobs: ask why? be curious.

Also fortunately, the bigger tests haven’t been given yet- particularly his own recruiting and program building efforts.

No one should think Tulane is hopeless. Again, it is absolutely possible for an "okay" coach to consistently win four-five games here even with the poor level of overall support. Frankly, we’ve seen it done for the better part of a decade now with two coaches: Scelfo and St. Tommy Bowden. The last ten years here have only produced one 2-win “hopeless” campaign- and that was Katrina.

We all want more than four, five, six wins- but the rational among us know that, with this level of university support, consistent Bowl seasons are not a lay-up. But even the most pessimistic can’t defend this product Toledo is generating. Only a true Toledo-naut can.

It is unfortunate. A coach only gets one first on-field impression. But Scelfo proved a poorly resourced, okay coach can produce non-disaster seasons. I’d like to see Toledo step up to that challenge before I laud him without evidence of real, tangible on-field progress.

The Toledo Improvement Continues

Good news readers! The “Bob Toledo Improvement” is scheduled to continue this weekend: SMU is -6 over the Wave.

Touring out little Tulane world's many chat boards, there wasn’t much commentary after this weekend’s loss. It seems like last night’s loss was “turn off the lights” for a lot of folks in 2007. I suppose that, even if you had the Green Wave at seven wins, you could write off the Mississippi State/Houston/LSU losses as hard games to win. But I had the Wave at three- and to get there I had them splitting this pair with the Blazers and the Cadets- and missing those opportunities is a whole different ball of wax.

It is official; Tulane is a bad football team. Forte and the defensive line are plus C-USA units; nothing else is. One could be tempted to put the o-line, three out of four games featuring over 200 yards rushing, and other elements of the “okay” defense in there- but I imagine, once it is a top-half C-USA team over on the other side, it’ll be back to being unable to block or stop anyone.

That all being said, how do you turn 500 yards of offense and a defensive effort that allowed a mere two touchdowns into a game where you trail most of the second half by multiple scores? How does that happen exactly?

Part of it, is that in addition to being bad, Tulane is easy to play against.

I don’t mean in the sense that they don’t run enough trick plays, etc. I mean regular football stuff: they commit a dozen penalties every game because they don’t line up right, have the correct guys on the field or lack the discipline to stay on-sides. The best offensive player also fumbles the most (a bad dichotomy), the “manage-the-game” qb throws multiple picks in Blazer territory. The bigger the kick-off return the more likely it is to go for a score.

Conversely, both Army and UAB struck me as “hard to play” against- at least the Saturday Tulane saw them. Take Army- even down ten points they continued to force Tulane to execute kicks and punts and third down conversions and not commit penalties and move the clock again and again and again- until, after 57 minutes, Tulane made mistakes. Like the Cadets, the Blazers aren’t good- but they also never stopped executing the routine stuff either. Both teams kept the pressure on for sixty minutes. They never allowed Tulane to score “bolt of lightening points”- but rather forced Tulane to execute 12 good football plays to score- and that just isn’t Anthony Scelfo and company.

I never got a sense UAB were beating themselves. Yet, that fear of turnovers and bad kick coverage and “can we play prevent?” hangs over everything Tulane does.

Anne Sullivan Assumes Command

Tulane’s loss to Houston Saturday was not unexpected. Neither maybe was the completely uncompetitive nature of the defeat. But the moronic, dirty play was dispiriting- the multiple quarterbacks sandwiched between endless personal fouls- so I’m sour on the head coach today. I'm just not getting the Bob Toledo thing. I was never crazy about it- always thought he was more the best we could do, rather than the best- and I am getting less crazy by the week.

I realize it is only two games- so the sample size is small and incomplete. However, good portions of the Tulane community spent the summer lauding Bob Toledo as a modern day Anne Sullivan- and I don’t see it. Just where is that the legion of fans who went on and on and on about what a great job Coach Anne, I mean Bob Toledo, was doing. The sharp players enjoying sharp practices- improving leaps and bounds over what that idiot Scelfo could do?

In Tulane land, people are whining over some bad behavior by Houston after a Tulane injury... but you know, I'd be a lot more sympathetic if the Wave did not spend then evening committing seemingly endless late hit, poor sportsmanship type fouls. If Tulane needs ideas on picking up an easy 60 yards of field position, how about looking into that? Tulane played a pretty dirty, ill-disciplined game- both with penalties and turnovers.

I guess my point is that Scelfo could be pilloried for failing to gather and/or elevate the talent pool- why does Bob get a total and utter pass? His first class was largely devoid of guys who would get long looks at, say, Troy State- and he sure as heck hasn't elevated the roster so far.

The good news is that Anne ain't gettin' a pass here. Be fair. If you were on here or here or here last year hollering about how players didn't improve, the team was undisciplined and Scelfo was a game day idiot... well, what part of the game day experience is better? point to one player who has improved? one game-time area that has been coached up? I realize Scelfo left little talent- but you know, on game day Chris seemed to find a way to play an on-field competitive game versus Mississippi State?

It isn’t enough to be undefeated in practice. Toledo has got to do better. And Coach Annie better figure something out this week.