I'm Takin' A Stand & Takin' the Wave

Let’s begin with a facile tautology: horrid is worse than terrible.

The New York Post puts up Mississippi State -11 over Tulane- and perhaps the tautology above explains it best. Mississippi State is terrible and Tulane looked horrid last Saturday. Possibly that is what Vegas is telling us: “terrible” is favored over “horrid” by eleven?

Well, the Bulldogs are pretty terrible- although you might get some dispute here. They’d be a touchdown underdog (maybe more) at Houston for example. Their defense would probably be more than okay in C-USA, but the offense is by all accounts a disaster- a good analogy might be, oh, say Tulane’s defense circa 2005.

The Bulldogs feature a quarterback situation that Tulane fans can really relate to- a key position staffed by a guy(s) totally not ready for the I-A level- except in Tulane’s case they got like seven of ‘em- most on defense, and a lot seemingly at linebacker.

So, I think I know what MSU “is”. But is Tulane horrid- justifying the 11?

Okay, Tulane isn’t good. Heck, I started that Church. But I am not sure the jury is in on “horrid” yet. Frankly, I can’t come on here one week and scream Houston is a stone lay up at -14, because the Cougars were uniquely designed to torment Tulane- and then turn around and write the subsequent harrowing beating is reflective of Tulane’s true ability level.

For example, I am going to pose a tendentious argument here. There is ample statistical evidence that Tulane can’t stop the run or the pass. But I would change that slightly. I think the actual fact is that Tulane catagoriclally can’t stop teams that can run and pass proficiently.

To wit, maybe last year might be a solid forecast of this year’s clash. The Wave had not real clue how to contain Kolb and crew last year either- but they did a pretty decent job, for Tulane that is, against the very one dimensional Mississippi State offense.

I just don’t see the Bulldogs utterly torching the Wave defense here- and if Croom’s guys can’t get to 28 for certain- I think covering eleven is problematic.

Further, a game under their belt has to help Tulane’s young offensive front and get the skill positions more in sync. And if Scelfo can’t get them dialed in here- a local game for many of them after a bad road beating- well, he never will.

Bottom line? I don’t think Tulane’s horrid performance had much to do with them- but more to do with a Houston team designed and populated to torment their defense. And you know, Lester Ricard really wasn’t all that bad, Forte wasn’t that bad either, the defense will get some help from MSU’s inability to throw (you gotta pass effectively to score 30+ points).

I tend to think that Tulane is not horrid- just terrible, just like MSU- and terrible ought not to give eleven to a peer. I like the Green Wave here frankly. Hard game to win outright- but our guys will be better! I take Tulane and the points.