Prediction Thursday

I had been on a roll picking the Eagles ATS in the spread until missing the last two tilts (here and here)- dropping the blog career NFL play-off mark to 10-5.

Thus, I was not surprised to being surprised at the line for Sunday: Eagles -3 over Green Bay. I was expecting something more of pick’em- but again, I’ve been off the beam a bit lately. Green Bay has one of the top defenses in football right now. The Eagles’ defense is an injury riddled wreck- rapidly declining week-to-week. Rodgers is a clear pick over Vick- casting doubt on the value of the Eagles’ usual talisman against general sputtering. And yet, the Eagles are a muted fave?

The biggest intangibles wagering on pro football are coaching, home field, short week and warm weather/dome team coming outside. Three seem to land the Eagles way. They are at home in a building that generates good noise and emotion. Green Bay had to play an emotional game for their life last Sunday, while the Eagles cruised with deep reserves. People mock Reid’s NFC Championship game record- but the reason he is there a lot to lose is that the Eagles seemingly always make the play-offs and then win their initial post-season game. Vegas believes in Reid is this sort of spot.

Still, I’m doubtful. I think we can all agree the Eagles’ defense is in for a real, real stern test Sunday. The secondary is a real mess: safeties are either hurt or terrible; DB reinforcements (a limping Asante Samuel) do not inspire confidence. Injuries have corroded the depth and the unit just looks worn. I have really been down on the Eagles past two drafts- and it is really coming home to roost now. Name a single guy on defense, actually playing, taken sixth round or better in the past two drafts. Answer: none. Two entire drafts- and that is why there is a talent and depth problem over there.

Worse, then Aaron Rodgers is introduced, a guy absolutely designed to torment this group.

And Michael Vick has been declining, banged up, too. His turnovers are through the roof. Teams are blitzing and he can’t generate consistent accurate throws from the pocket. Vick this year, even playing well, struggles to generate “routine” offense against even decent defenses: Colts, Giants, Bears, Vikings. The Eagles grew fat this year, leavening said struggling routine offense, with giant strikes to Jackson, Celek, Maclin. But teams now get the ball out of Vick’s hands via extreme pressure, there is no time for giant downfield plays, and the Eagles just can’t sustain offense right now. Perhaps worse, Vick is hinting at excuses: I’m only 75%? Trouble.

This game seems straightforward to me. Rodgers throws for 300 yards, generates 28-35 points. Vick can’t possible throw for 300 yards; the Eagles struggle to add to their two routine scores via big plays. Throw in a pair of Vick turnovers… and this game has 31-17 Packers written all over it.

I love the Pack -3 over the Eagles here. But, such is the weakness of my convictions, based on my recent record, I’ll be chilling in Section 204 loving prepping snowballs.

Special bonus picks! My preseason Super Bowl pick was Falcons over Ravens. I’m inclined to stick with it. Falcons are very good in their building, and I think the Raven defense is much better than the Pats.

Seattle +10.5 over New Orleans: Gut pick really. A .500 outfit really ought to be able to hang with a good team at home. Just a whole lot of points to give a road team in the NFL.

Bah Humbug

There has probably been no Eagles’ fan more pessimistic than me this year. And after Tuesday’s shellacking at the Linc by the Vikings, more and more observers are getting on board. How do you think this blurb made my heart skip?

It seemed fair to ponder, after the details of the quad injury were revealed, whether Reid might have been wise to sit a hobbled Vick in favor of Kevin Kolb. Kolb hasn't played since October, but he has been NFC Offensive Player of the Week twice in six career starts; it's not like Reid has Koy Detmer standing there beside him.

People and press are catching on. But first, give Minnesota proper credit. They were a lot of people’s chic NFC pick until quarterback and coaching woes, coupled with general drama (along with Washington, the NFC’s biggest circus), did them in. Given decent quarterback play and good effort, they are a pretty good outfit.

But the Eagles have real problems- and are really starting to stink like the 11-5 fraud from last year. They haven’t played a great game- one that could not have gone either way- since destroying the Redskins back in mid-November.

Philadelphia is a solid organization- so there is almost always a route to ten wins in a division routinely littered with frauds. They manage depth and the roster like the other elite teams in the League, so they survive catastrophic injury situations (like the five, six starters out on defense) with aplomb against teams like the Redskins and Giants. They can rebuild on the fly- put a credible division wining product out even while experimenting with the quarterback position and rolling out many young guys.

But ultimately, it doesn’t mean Philadelphia is “good”. Good enough to beat the League’s many mediocre outfits (Giants, Texans, Jags), even shock someone at home (Colts, Falcons)- but not truly elite.

It starts with the quarterback- who teams are increasingly figuring out. Hard to argue that Vick has not been pretty bad lately, with only one 100 rating since the Redskins rout versus the terrible Texans secondary. In fact, that probably is what Vick ultimately is- a guy who once a month can generate a 100 rating game. Frankly, with the exceptional exception of a seven minute stretch against a Giants team in full collapse, he has been terrible the past two games.

Teams are figuring out how to deal with the big play, but low consistency, low completion total quarterback. They are coming with more pressure, more blitzers than the Eagles can block, forcing Vick in to a dump off, hit the hot receiver(s), style of play. Defenses are not going to sit passively and give Vick time to generate the giant plays downfield that have defined the Eagles approach this year.

Those extra rushers change the equation that has served the Eagles well. No longer can Jackson, Maclin and Celek run deep routes with impunity. Vick cannot extend plays with that many people careening around. And it isn’t a problem with the offensive line either- you can simply send more people than teams can block. Sure, the line isn’t a great unit- but it is healthy and intact and serviceable. No one can consistently block the amount of pressure they’re seeing anyway.

Instead, Vick has to mature- to check down, dump off. Those throws are absolutely there when six, seven guys are coming after Vick. And big plays are possible burning the blitz- but the quarterback has to make simple throws again and again and again to the right guy, run the raw completion totals up. And that ain’t Vick. And so, right now, they’ve been bad on offense more often than not.

Sure, Vick might escape the blitz a few times, generate a couple of big runs. But a pair of 30-yard runs does not sway matters in a passing, big play League. Then, add in the turnovers that have sprouted as Vick is forced to play a disciplined dink and dunk game, plus the many fumbles that he had gotten away with finally coming home to roost (he had fumbled nine times but only lost one coming into the Vikes game)- and you have a brutal three turnover day from the quarterback.

And the Eagles can’t survive that against a good play-off team- or it will be the Chicago loss again and again: turnovers, quarter after quarter of stagnant offense.

The defense is young and banged up. Productive contributors are out at defensive end (Graham), linebacker (Bradley), safety (Allen) and starting corner- plus Samuel is in and out. The safety and corner situation is particularly horrendous.

So the Eagles need to score consistently. But it is hard to game plan repeated bombs to Jackson or giant catch and runs to Celek. And the alternative, the traditional eight-play, sixty-yard scoring drive, just has not been Vick’s forte ever.

So Minnesota exposed the Eagles- the rookie quarterback got a mere modest two scores but without a mistake or turnover. Vick generated many mistakes and a third score. And the offense can’t do anything much if Vick is forced to play like Kevin Kolb. And folks like me, pointing out that there is a quarterback on the roster who absolutely can dink and dunk (two NFC player of the week awards in six starts) with the best of them, watches the season evaporate under the shaky, yet very expected, existing quarterback play.

People Are Catching Up

Rumblings that all is not right with the "MVP" quarterback Michael Vick:

Last week, the Eagles converted just 1 of 5 red-zone opportunities against the Giants. But thanks to five giveaways by the Giants, they still managed to cruise to a 27-17 win.

They weren't so lucky against the Bears. This time, another dreadful 1-for-5 red-zone performance resulted in a five-point loss....

And then this:

Aside from a 4-for-4 red-zone performance in their impressive, could-do-no-wrong, 59-28 win over the Redskins 2 weeks ago, the Eagles have been struggling in the red zone for a while now. Take out the Washington game and they're a lousy 6-for-23 in the red zone in their last five games.

That last quote really gives you a sense of the endless laudatory coverage Vick gets. Instead of reading "struggling in the red zone for a while now", it should read "struggling in the red zone since Vick took over at quarterback."

The Eagles have just six total TDs in this recent stretch of Colts, Giants and Bears- two of those TDs were the result of giant, atypical McCoy rushes, another was pretty close to garbage time. They have good, proven skill players who can catch and get open: Jackson, Maclin, McCoy, Celek. What is the problem?

Can’t leave Michael Vick out of that answer. The Colts, Bears and Giants offer decent-to-good defenses. With the back of the end zone providing safety help, these teams cheat the run- particularly the run from Vick. Kept in the pocket, unable to extend plays, Vick isn’t even an average passer. He’s inaccurate (this guy has missed more big throws in four weeks than McNabb did in seasons- and no one says anything), and no one would describe him as heady.

Between the twenties, Vick can outrun the defensive secondary support, beat the safety ot the first down marker, get away from the linebacker containing on the edge. His quality receiving corps gets open, which eliminates the need for throwing perfection. But near the goal line, he is a liability.

The Eagles would not be 6-for-23 in the red zone with Kolb at quarterback. Frankly, it seems hard to argue that Kolb isn’t a better guy to throw those tight slants and fades. Kolb might not have a cannon- but he is a proficient read it and throw it quarterback (ed. note: two NFC player of the week awards in his first six starts). And it is a small leap from “clearly better in the red zone “ to “clearly better".

The Vick for MVP pick talk has died. Next, the pro-Bowl talk will peter out as the ceiling of one, maybe two touchdowns a game against even decent defenses becomes increasingly clear.

It is all about understanding the League. It isn’t the NBA- a star-system where the elite rewrite the rules. It is more like baseball- where the pursuit of important numbers and metrics ruthlessly rule outcomes. And you can’t be a good quarterback in this league if you cannot pass the football accurately. Vick is fun and different- but there is that specific hole in his game. And the League is catching up weekly. Vick gets out of the pocket less. There are fewer blitzers- and more “go ahead and beat the coverage Michael”. And the cruel metrics- red zone pass completion percentage, yards per attempt, time to accurate release- start driving poor red zone success ratios.

By Christmas there will be a burgeoning chorus for Kolb.

Vegas Knows The Wrong Quarterback Is Playing

This blurb ran in the New York Post this morning:

The Giants will try to go point-for-point with the Eagles with three starters — center Shaun O’Hara, left tackle David Diehl and receiver Steve Smith — again unable to play and another starter, left tackle Shawn Andrews, possibly out with a sore back.

Manning showed some edge this week... He didn’t buy for one moment that the Giants should be concerned with the injuries to hit the offensive line or that rookie Duke Calhoun would have to play a more prominent role with Smith sidelined and Ramses Barden out for the remainder of the season. “Duke’s the only guy that doesn’t have any playing experience,” Manning said. “Everybody else has played and done some good stuff.”

What about Kevin Boothe, who last week was activated for the first time all season and has to start at left tackle? “He’s played in the past,” Manning said. What about Will Beatty, who will have to start if Andrews can’t play? “Started for us,” Manning said.

Looking at last week’s results- Eagles humiliating Washington, New York being humiliated by Dallas- is anyone else shocked that the Eagles are only -3 over the Giants? A line implying a toss-up at a neutral site?

I’m not. Because both Vegas and I know the Eagles are playing the wrong quarterback.

Sure, the Eagles looked very nifty destroying an increasing mess in Washington behind those twenty Vick completions.

But Vegas and I know that consistent low completion total is an issue. Heck, let's cast back a mere week. Against Indianapolis, a mere step up to “decent” on defense from Washington, those twenty-ish completions led to a very Vick like 2 TDs, and only one TD over the last 58 minutes. People who make these lines know how the League works. A quarterback who can't complete passes can't routinely score 24 points against decent pro outifts.

Playing the non-comatose Giants defense, figure a likely revert back for Vick- to two scores versus seven- and Eli Manning looks likely, 50-50, to keep up. Vegas certainly sees no advantage in having Vick’s two touchdown capacity in there versus Manning.

Otherwise, how do you explain it? I know it sounds nuts- but there is the proof in black and white from people who know how the game works.

Psst... if Kolb were starting, would this game be even in Vegas? Hardly. The Eagles would be -6 over New York.

2010 Philadelphia Eagles Pick

The Philadelphia Eagles won eleven regular season games last year before being crushed by Dallas two successive weeks to end their season: here and then, the play-offs.

So despite some regular season success, there were major questions, particularly on defense. And these three major areas of off-season concern were surely addressed. First round pick pass rusher extraordinaire Brandon Graham looks like he might actually start- and not just provided needed situational edge pressure. Second round pick Nate Allen is also an immediate upgrade at the disastrous safety spot. And the return of MLB Stewart Bradley, and the addition of good coverage LB Ernie Sims, should mean opposing RBs and TEs won’t roam free everywhere.

In short, the defense ought to be a whole step better- and reputationally, the Eagles are good every year. Yet, pessimism is rampant. The Vegas over/under is eight- and to many in Philadelphia, that seems generous.

The pessimism is two parts. First, for the first time since the Jeff Garcia led run to a division title in 2006, the Eagles are in clear rebuilding mode. The old core of McNabb, Westbrook, Runyan, Thomas, etc.- has been completely moved out. The roster has average age of 25. They stockpiled and kept a ton of draft picks. A team about to embark on a Super Bowl run does not look to deal its starting OG the week before the season in a salary dump. There is one guy on the offense who was key to the NFC Championship game run two years ago. Clear rebuilding mode rarely equals lots of winning.

Second, and perhaps part and parcel of the first point, it is the offense that worries folks. Ultimately, most were okay with dealing an aging, battling nagging injuries, McNabb indirectly for the aforementioned safety help. Sure, there is consternation about replacing a borderline Hall of Fame quarterback. But, part of drafting and grooming a young quarterback is the willingness to actually give him the keys. Kolb has shown enough to merit a shot. I actually think he’ll be okay.

But the book on playing a young quarterback is that you need to help him with quality line play and a running game. And the Eagles are hurting there.

The offensive line is probably the weakest collection since Reid’s first season as head coach. LT Jason Peters is good for 95% of the snaps. He is unfortunately playing the position where the consequences for occasional inattention are the highest: gruesome sacks, turnovers, penalties. Guard Todd Herremanns was the worst player on the line two years ago- now he is probably the best. He is probably better suited to RT- has good feet but not a road grader type- but the Eagles are so hurting for interior linemen. Further, Philadelphia still does not know who is going to play for certain the other two interior line spots- and RT Winston Justice defines serviceable. That is three average guys and and two mysteries… trouble.

Unfortunately, the only worse position is the running back collective. Last year’s second round pick Shady McCoy might be a better player than the last first day draft pick: Tony Hunt. But honestly, he projects at best to “sort of okay”. He might provide decent numbers behind a good o-line, but the Eagles can’t provide that. Worse, of the immediate candidates for help, the six RBs/TEs- only one can block a lick. With this line and RB combination, I don’t know how they are going to move the ball an inch in the red zone on the ground- an area where a young quarterback could really use some assistance.

The skill perimeter players- Celek, Jackson, Maclin- are excellent.

So, figure the offense is just south of average, the defense just north. The division seems to be a hard place to win more than three, but also lose more than three too... put it together, and you have .500.

That being said, I am a believer in the the Eagles’ approach- there is something to be said for continuity, they are well-coached (make kicks, cover kicks, they have depth). Philadelphia manages the in-season roster as well as anyone- dressing and playing a disproportionate number of first- and second-year players which helps in December. They do get real juice playing in their building- so move’em up a little. So I’ll take the over, say 9-7, in the mix for the Wild Card.

Bonus Super Bowl Pick: Atlanta over Pittsburgh

Messing Up The Draft Two Years Straight

For the second year in a row, I really don’t understand the Philadelphia Eagles strategy for the NFL Draft.

Frankly, in case Andy Reid missed it, the Iggles have needs everywhere: safety, cornerback, defensive line, right tackle, linebacker- probably QB too. Really, the defense is not good. After ridding themselves of multiple high priced veterans and accumulating 5 of the first 87 picks, conditions seemed ripe for the re-stocking of talent this team badly needs. Philadelphia needed to find two or three "plus" starters, plus another three/four roster guys, that can play a lot thru 2013.

Basically, they need new bodies. And you can absolutely get guys who can play in the third round. Why else did the Eagles accumulate six fourth and fifth round picks?

And instead we gave up THREE picks in said first 87 selections for a guy, Brandon Graham, who won't play 50% of the total defensive snaps over the next two years?

The Eagles rotate DEs like crazy on game day- no defensive end is going to play exclusively in today’s NFL. And don’t tell me Graham is a first-round level run-stopper... if Philadelphia wanted the generic, all around quality rotational DE, that guy is on the board at 24- and the Eagles still have that pair of third rounders.

Or they are going to keep him on the field as an OLB. Yeah right. Now the Eagles have spent three picks on a guy who has never played standing up, covered tight ends, etc. Lord, the #14 overall selection is now spent on a situation pass rushing linebacker! That isn’t risky.

Still, it is not so much I don’t think Graham can play (although, again, it isn’t a straight shot: new position, specialist). But the road to finding three "plus" starters in the draft is easier with the original five picks than this plethora of fourths and fifths. It smacks of being too smart- you need really to hit 100% of Graham and the safety from South Florida. And that is just it- even if your talent evaluation is perfect, stuff happens in the NFL. Guys get hurt, discover drugs, get in accidents. Reid has zero room for chance or error- whereas had they taken the five picks, the necessary hit rate is three in five.

Jeez, we could have packaged those two threes to get more “prospects” like Shady McCoy in here. At least this year we're not spending high draft picks on guys who can't block. Thus, it isn’t a total disaster.

More optimism, and video, here.

So Long Donovan. I Feel Sad.

The departure of long time friends continues as Donovan McNabb- the greatest Eagles’ quarterback of all time- leaves after a decade of service to those of us in Section 204.

I took pains to put in “greatest” to drive home the magnitude of his departure. McNabb started 142 regular season games for the Eagles. In almost all of them, the Eagles had the better quarterback. Only the goalie in the NHL has a bigger impact in American team sports, and the Eagles just traded away this decade long resource. The next ten years of Eagles’ football will not feature such a sustained advantage.

Plus, he was a good guy in a world where a lot of lousy athletes get a lot of ink. It was fun in the national media to characterize Philadelphia fans as louts who did not appreciate #5. No doubt there is a vocal group of dopes on 610 WIP. But in my experience in Section 204, family and friends, anyone that I knew who was a knowledgeable Eagles’ fans, thought the guy was a good player. Anyway, the Redskins will never have to worry if he is prepared, in shape or committed.

Nevertheless, it had to happen. I cannot complain for two years about the overpaid, underachieving McNabb-Westbrook axis- then complain when the Eagles break it up. The high second round pick with the three in 2011- is equivalent (according to the chart) to a low first round selection. Seems fair. You can quibble with the tactical nature of an inter-divisional trade, but frankly Washington is going to have to prove to me first that they are are worthy measuring stick. Sort of feels like the same Redskin shortcuts: take a clearly declining veteran player for two first day draft picks. I mean, isn’t this a team screaming for a pair of quality o-line prospects?

In a strategic sense, yes, I’d have traded McNabb. For the first time since 2007, the Eagles are a clear step behind the conference powers and a divisional rival. They aren’t going to win a Super Bowl next year with Unitas at quarterback. The Eagles are taking advantage of the uncapped year to purge roster mistakes right and left. They are cleaning house of underachievers and thirty-somethings. So might as well do it now. It is never going to be easy.

Plus, Kevin Kolb is the prototype of doing things the right way- drafting and developing your core players rather than exchanging a pair of first day picks to solve endless holes caused by trading your said draft selections. But part of that is allowing your groomed players to actually, you know, play- particularly when they have a single year left on their deal. Kolb has shown enough to deserve a year long audition. He was frankly pretty darn good in his pair of starts this year (700 plus yards passing, 4TDs, 3 INTs). Frankly, I want to see him- get Kolb a year of seeing the elephant in a year with zero big expectations.

Plus, it is the Eagles. Even a rebuilding year will probably have them at ten-ish wins, in the divisional mix until December. This is a team that was missing seven offensive starters last year for significant time (Curtis, both Andrews brothers, Peters, Westbrook, etc.) still won eleven. They will keep moving forward.

Still, it is not about tomorrow today. McNabb was a lot of fun here- and I was a big fan. But this change was never going to be a good day- so best be done soon and quick.

The Daytona 500 Can't Get Here Soon Enough

What a mess that was. I only had my pizza from Firehouse to keep me happy. Obviously, initial observations center around things like NASCAR can’t get here soon enough and at least the Flyers are playing better. Still, the Eagles got their shots in! DeSean Jackson’s witty twittering, employees spitting on the big star and McNabb’s idiotic pre-game air guitar stylings- classy! Speaking of useless and air guitars, the Jets ran right at and right over our useless friend Dhani Jones all game long.

I’ll post the satisfying bitter recriminations later in the week. I will cheerily mention who needs to pack a bag- both the obvious (Michael Vick) and not so obvious (Sav Rocca). But my father offered an encouraging start: how about defensive coordinator Sean McDermott? Can you name a player who got better? Just what concrete examples can he offer of the team’s defense being elevated as a collective?

Look, Dallas is just better right now than Philadelphia- and some of the match-ups they present are additionally problematic.

On defense, the Cowboys have a very good defensive line- which goes at the Eagles biggest problem (outside of linebackers), the offensive line. Most teams fail when forced to play the guys that populate the sixth, seventh and eighth offensive line roster spots. The Eagles survived, even thrived, scoring the most points in franchise history, until they faced a real quality defensive line.

The Eagles all season covered up for the line’s inadequacies with player consistency- at least guys like Justice, Cole, Jean-Gilles have been around the team for awhile. Individually they are all very competent back-ups. So they got away with it until Jamal Jackson got hurt two weeks ago- forcing the eighth roster spot into the game and an additional guard to center switch. A further weakening of two interior line positions was not helpful facing this Dallas defensive line. And getting that eighth guy on the field was problematic earlier in the season too- remember Oakland? Second, they relied on the young skill players to make big dazzling plays in lieu of moving the ball consistently over a dozen snaps.

Unfortunately, Dallas could overwhelm these multiple offensive line substitutions while only rushing four. Add the fact that RB McCoy and TE Celek can’t block anyone- thus freeing up guys to double WRs Jackson and Maclin- and there went the big play potential.

The defensive shortcomings are more personnel related. The Eagles have zero linebackers who grade out as above average. They all, without exception, stink- although Witherspoon might be close to okay and Foiku is a rookie pressed into service. Regardless, Dallas has the weapons here to exploit this mess- good running game and a marvelous tight end in Jason Witten. The safeties stink too- although Macho Harris is a problem of experience rather than incapacity. He can run and hit.

Add in the fact that Tony Romo is a better quarterback than McNabb, at least this bad, slumping version of Donovan who cannot lift the status quo, and Dallas is multiple scores better.

Picking Green

Frank Helps You Think It All Out is on a solid 10-4 run picking the Eagles ATS in play-off games, including 2-1 last year: Vikings-win, Giants-win, Cards-loss. So for Philadelphia fans, perhaps it is a good thing that, while I am real uneasy about the Eagles chances tomorrow night, I'm inclined to take the head start. The New York Post obliges and has Dallas -4 over Philadelphia.

At first glance, four is a cheap line. As I wrote earlier in the week, did anybody in Las Vegas even see the game last week? Dallas seems better at every position but kicker and wide receiver. In fact, they are much better on defense- shutting out their last two opponents, holding the Saints to 17 on the road. The Eagles have scored one total offensive touchdown in two games against the Cowboys.

Add in a 24-0 beat down just six days ago, and this line looks a little nuts. No way the Eagles are one point ‘dogs on a neutral field, right?

I tend to think there is an unholy trifecta working in bettors’ minds here. First, Wade Phillips is calling the shots on the other side- and he is deeply distrusted. He is a guy with zero success is big, win-or-go-home spots. I would not want decisions vis-à-vis my entire season rattling around in his brainpan. There is also similar concern, not as deep, about Tony Romo.

Second, most bettors dismiss the magnitude of the beating of last week’s game. Dallas is good- falling down 14 to that defense can make you look worse than you are. Philadelphia got caught up in a game where Dallas successfully went to the emotional well. But, everything went Dallas' way- and they put up a not substantial 24 points.

Third, I think there is a real Desean Jackson price premium right now. Philadelphia really ought to be a touchdown ‘dog here- needing help to be within a score late. Well, for one thing, Jackson is generating that “free, unexpected score” more often than not. For another thing, for all its faults, the defense does force turnovers. Personally, I feel the Eagles will struggle to bust through seventeen points here through routine offense- but I also feel that Jackson on the defnese is 50-50 to bust a single crazy play over sixty minutes and push them into the 24-ish range. Between Jackson and a defense, this line is forced to reflect a favorable Eagles’ “random score” premium of half a touchdown- say three or four points- pushing the line from eight to four.

Ultimately, I don’t feel good about this game at all- Dallas is more than a touchdown better than Philadelphia on paper. But I also think Philadelphia will play a more heady game this time- and it is a division game, third time around. That does not make me confident in scoreboard separation- particularly again considering Philadelphia penchant for big play scores. This is the sort of game where it is real nice to be able to just strike for 50 yards in the absence of regular offensive ability. I’ll take Philadelphia +4 over Dallas.

Just Pitched My PlayOff Tickets

The New York Post puts Dallas -4 over Philadelphia for Saturday’s upcoming Wild Card game. It kind of makes you wonder if anyone in Las Vegas even saw the thorough 24-0 beat down Dallas administered yesterday afternoon that caused me to trash my Linc play-off tickets. The Eagles’ theme for Frank Helps You Think It All Out all year has been ten wins and “just good enough to lose another NFC Championship Game”. I’ll probably have to amend the latter to read “just good enough to lose to an NFC Championship Game participant”.

The defeat was pretty comprehensive. Where are the Eagles “better” right now than Dallas? Dallas has a better offensive line- by a lot- and defensive line. Dallas’ ‘backers are much better. The running backs are a wash- except the Eagles don’t use them when losing. I come up with kicker and wide outs.

Following that line of thought, perhaps most troubling observing McNabb complete his third straight game of crazily spraying the ball around, Tony Romo looks like the more polished performer. In fact, McNabb might be the worst of the six quarterbacks in the NFC play-offs. Brees is definitely better. Right now, the last few weeks, Romo is too. Are you really sure you would take McNabb over Warner (maybe against a fearsome pass rush?), Rodgers or Favre?

Obviously, the loss was not McNabb’s fault. They rarely are. But the career book on this character is rapidly drawing to a close- and it is going to put him in the “good”, rather than “great” category.

It is very frustrating- but McNabb is not the quality of player who can achieve true greatness. That doesn’t mean he cannot win a Super Bowl- but that he can’t will it himself. I’ve been racking my brain to come up with a play-off game where the Eagles rode McNabb to victory over a superior opponent. Can’t really come up with one. Maybe the Green Bay game with FredEx’s miracle grab- but was a road Green Bay really superior?

Instead, you are left with a quarterback that can, say, routinely elevate a team playing sloppily against a .500 team on the road, but not one in desperate straights. Down 14-0 yesterday, is anyone in that locker room seeking to hitch his wagon to McNabb? The Eagles boldest, rally aroundthe quarterback, run in the Reid era was the 2006 December sweep, in a row, of all three division opponents. Not surprisingly, McNabb was out for that. So yes, there is a reason why McNabb is not a pro Bowl candidate- he is simply not a great player.

No shame in that of course. McNabb has won a lot of games. But not championship, elite games. The road to the Super Bowl is complex without such capability.

It isn’t hopeless of course. Vegas’ confidence is perhaps not misplaced. Wade Phillips is still over there calling some of the shots. The whole game went Dallas’ way and they could still only muster 24 points- not great. But I’ll save that for the pick segment later this week.

Dumbness, Poor Play and Laziness

I personally did not glean much from the Eagles' much harder than it had to be win over a game Denver outfit. A mixture of dumbness, poor play and laziness (what is it with the tackling in the secondary?) allowed Denver to creep back and tie the game late. But the cruel lessons of the NFL asserted themselves at last. The Eagles have a franchise quarterback, who despite playing terrible for an entire half, generated big plays in subsequent late possessions. McNabb managed to flip field position once (with a third and forever scramble), then delivered the subsequent kill shot with a third down strike to Jeremy Maclin down field. Conversely, Denver went three and out on their sandwiched possession.

The win moved McNabb out of the line of fire and poor Macho Harris right in. I tend to give him a pass. The personal foul he was assessed was a poor call- and while he did fumble a big kick-off, well, he is out there, right? In a League where people are all moaning about the failure of late round draft picks to contribute, Macho is a fifth round pick out there returning kicks and actually playing safety. It isn’t like the Eagles are hiding him. But the flip side of having rookie draft picks play and contribute is they make dumb errors.

Folks seem pretty sanguine about the Eagles’ loss of center Jamal Jackson for the season. Yes, Jackson isn’t very good. Center is probably the most unappreciated regular position on the field- so like most teams, the Eagles cut salary cap corners here and play an undrafted free agent.

But it has potential to be a problem. I hate when teams shift offensive lineman around to cover a new gap. Consequently, when sports writers dismiss the shift of Cole from guard to center because “the Eagles think he is better suited to play there”, to me that is code for a secret longing to hide him. The new guard, Jean-Giles is adequate merely for a replacement. Give me a break, please, about Andrews returning to save the day. Right now, Andrews is up there with King Dunlap as players I trust. I dunno- this arrangement reminds me of the Eagles 2004 Super Bowl appearance where they were undone by poor interior line play. Basically, the Eagles have weakened two interior line positions to plug one hole.

Look, the Eagles are playing well and are certainly in the mix to win the NFC. But a big part of the renaissance has been the stability, in the second half of the season, of the offensive line- and that stability is out the window. And the first half of the season did not inspire much confidence in Philadelphia’s ability to manage a variable offensive line situation. Adding a pair of real generic offensive line starters now, wedded to the NFC-wide suspect defense, confirms something I wrote two weeks ago: the Eagles are good, good enough to lose another NFC Championship Game.

Nothing this week has moved me off that opinion.

I think they need to upset Dallas as a minor underdog this week to have real Super Bowl aspirations. The Eagles need help- there is not enough here, right now, to win three road games against decent outfits. Cashing in last night’s gift from the Vikings, getting a home game and a bye, cuts that task and the challenges facing the defense down to something the Eagles might be able to manage via a singular offensive explosion in an NFC title game.

Increasingly Elf-Like

It is hard to be too enthused about the Eagles 45-28 thumping over the Giants. Sure, it is simply great to watch a dejected, increasingly elf-like Tom Coughlin stand-in for tens of thousands of drenched Giants’ fans. But we’ve seen this movie before. The Eagles have been in the consistently best team in the NFC East for the better part of a decade now. Eh, so they probably are again.

Yes, the Eagles are maybe a bit better than the ten-ish win good forecasted here in August. But there is no Super Bowl title here with this defense. How are the Eagles going to run a gauntlet of @ Minnesota, @ New Orleans and then San Diego/Indy? Score 45 again and again? People! Just because the Giants are, in a pinch, designed to score fifty against- a nifty mixture of just horrible defensive secondary players and suspect defensive line play- does not mean this is a reproducible formula in New Orleans.

Still, must not be pessimistic. It is a good win- as all wins in road division games are. That is just about as well as the Giants can play on offense. They seemingly had the ball the entire game. The Eagles' defense was clearly less desperate than the Giants' offense. Philadelphia made a bunch of soft plays in the defensive backfield: lazy tackling, constantly jumping routes, looking for the easy play- symptomatic of more than a little untypical NFC East softness out there.

Yet, New York still trailed by two full scores with four minutes to go. Frankly, for a team racking up 500 yards of offense, the Giants trailed by two touchdowns a lot: just enough bad luck, breakdowns, turnovers and shaky pass coverage. That is four items- chalk up one score to each and you’re at 28 already.

The New York papers were agog during the week that their recent benchings of three defensive starters, most notable Osi Umenyiora, was helpful and invigorating. I didn’t notice. Maybe they are somewhat better versus the run- but now the Giants get zero push in the pass rush on the early down and distance situations. That is a real unhelpful combination with that New York secondary. Mess up a run play- they get seven yards. Mess up a pass play- and Jackson roams wide open chased by hapless safeties.

Ultimately though, the Eagles are right now what they have been again and again for the past decade- a real threat to get to the NFC Championship game, but a notch below true greatness.

A Modern Sherman

Hard to say who had a rougher week, East Anglia climate “scientists” or the Atlanta Falcons? Much like a modern William Tecumseh Sherman, the Eagles laid waste to Atlanta 34-7- pitching a big time shut out until the final play.

Press reports largely shrugged, laying Atlanta’s overall ineptness at the feet of the absence of five offensive starters- including quarterback Matt Ryan. Of course, the Eagles were also missing five starters- including three key skill players: RB Westbrook, WR Jackson, WR Curtis. Plus, the starting linebackers feature a pair of guys who weren’t on the roster when October started, and the nickel corner is suspended (Hanson). Just as I wrote last week, anyone who thinks Reid is a dope must reconcile the fact that the Eagles haven’t missed a beat asking some nine guys from the bottom half of the roster to start together and contribute.

I mean, all these back-ups went on the road to play a desperate Atlanta outfit: zero turnovers, sixty yards in penalties, made and covered kicks, had one TD allowed. That is a tight outfit- and that is good coaching.

At 8-4, the Eagles squarely control their own destiny. Unfortunately, they still have vexing road games at division rivals New York and Dallas. Winning the division and getting the subsequent home game probably requires sweeping that pair- which seems pretty hard. And let’s see the Vikings lose another one before getting crazy over a two-seed.

Frankly, even getting a wild card berth probably requires winning one division road game. Despite recent success, Philadelphia is a narrow one point ‘dog this weekend. So you can’t write Philadelphia in to the tournament yet. I was rooting hard for Dallas to beat New York this weekend- put the Giants two games back, and make ten wins the probable NFC wild card standard, while keeping Dallas within a mere one game of the Eagles with one head-to-head to play. Instead, we have a three team mess atop NFC East- where one team should go home- and the Eagles are the team with a pair of thorny games left in their rivals’ building.

On the plus side, I suppose they are playing the best football in NFC East right now- but that is a fact that needs to be validated over a whole month yet. Four games is an eternity in this League. Still, this mini-winning streak- good road wins over Atlanta and Chicago, plus the Redskins- has vaulted the Eagles from “maybe” to “probable”.

Chaos

The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Redskins in an utterly chaotic game at the Linc yesterday afternoon. On the blog, I’ve been away from the Eagles for a bit lately. I sort of gave them a pass for last week’s sloppy road win over the Bears. Any road win versus a desperate outfit (the biggest intangible in pro football) is a good win. But this unholy mess from Sunday against a bad, banged up Washington outfit is another matter altogether.

As usual around here, the papers are all killing Andy Reid for the many curious game day choices. For one thing, the game again featured the over-coaching so common from this Reid regime: the on-side kick to start the game, the ongoing Vick follies, the frequent digressions into the “throw every play offense”.

As a result, the Eagles were down eight points in the fourth quarter, just about left for dead. That is, left for dead until veteran wide out Jason Avant came up with two huge courageous catches en route to the tying score.

Who is Jason Avant? Well, he is emblematic of the best thing Reid has done since arriving in Philadelphia: get endless, positive contributions from the 23rd to 45th roster spot.

The Eagles really ought to be sunk. They are missing two of their first three skill people: Curtis and Westbrook. The offensive line has been in flux since day one- only Jamal Jackson can be counted on week to week. McNabb has missed a couple of starts. The linebacker corps is decimated- starting two guys who weren’t even on the team six weeks ago. The safeties are suspect and the corners are a revolving door of health.

Yet they are a sporty 7-4. And that is because they find guys down on the roster who can play every week.

Example: Avant is a back-up, yet veteran, wide-out. Classy, down roster, multi-year veterans are a rarity in a capped League- if you aren’t economizing at the fourth/fifth wide out spot, where are you economizing?

Further: David Akers makes all his kicks. The back-up running back (McCoy), quarterback (Kolb), wide receiver (Maclin), offensive guard (Giles) and offensive tackle (Justice) all can play at a sustainable, even plus, level. Three, maybe four, of those five would start right now for Washington. The Eagles have literally started probably a dozen guys from the second line on the depth chart- and not one was a disaster. Maybe Joe Mays at linebacker- but he was three deep.

So, if we are going to kill the coach for the nonsense Sunday, and there was a lot, perhaps we might also point out the two constants from this regime: consistent deep roster spot contributions and a “keep moving forward” attitude.

Obviously, the road map to the play-offs is a lot easier at 7-4 than 6-5, particularly in light of the fact the Eagles are really a complete mess on the injury front right now- eight, nine starters out now most weeks, major reinforcements probably not coming (some of these back-up are not going to be supplanted) except as the corners heal up. But with a pair of winnable home games left to play- the 49ers and Denver- 10-6 and a play-off game seem increasingly likely.

The Sporting Life Is Worthwhile

Sunday was obviously one of those days that really makes me glad I give so much time and effort following professional sport. Gosh, was I ever rewarded as yesterday? Is there anything more wholesome than being parked with your youngest brother, on the third floor of the ancestral family home, being forced fed bad middle relief until 2:30 in the morning? My forehead literally hurts from disgusted and frantic rubbing. And then, Nelson-like victory!

But first, off to the Linc to watch the Philadelphia Eagles half-interestedly dismantle a hapless Tampa Bay outfit. And this victory was despite playing pretty bored and stupid. Again, particularly over the Philadelphia offense, hangs this sense of preseason game eight or so- the constant breaking in of new weapons (McNabb and Maclin), experimenting with old (Westbrook was back- sort of, at times), sharply calling a halt to proceedings to run odd “wildcat plays” (this experiment is simply not working). Heck, even Kolb got in for a play to hand it off for some reason- causing the Eagles to burn a timeout when Vick didn’t re-enter promptly enough. Or something like that. MLB Trotter showed up, played some- then shuffled off to deeper parts of the roster.

On defense, Philadelphia just looks so bored and commits rashes of penalties. Frankly, everyone the Eagles play- outside of New Orleans- seems simply horrid. Coach Andy seems to want to use this games in some sort of giant bloodying exercises for all new the offensive performers.

Of course, then the four plus hour NLDS marathon with Colorado. You have to sort of watch just to see who Charlie will pitch next. It is weird, you find yourself arguing vociferously for inanities like “Bastardo now!”- and no would be shocked if Randy Lerch surfaced as a situational lefty. After Charlie’s machinations failed in Game 2, he seemingly pressed more of the right buttons in Game 3.

Every move is fraught with the worst perils. Introducing Blanton early means guys like Scott Eyre need to move past comfortable situational roles. Removing Eyre short of said full inning means burning Madson early than wanted. And of course, the whole axis of decisions moving closer and closer to the closer: Brad “Rockets Red Glare” Lidge.

Still, we’re alive- and the Rockies face trouble- needing to beat Lee or Hamels back in Philadelphia- and whipping quality starting LHP is not their thing. So: Don’t worry Red Sox fans! The Phillies will take care of those Yankees for you yet!

The Chiefs Stink

Okay, the Chiefs stink. I wrote last week’s game had an exhibition feel to it, as the Eagles spent the whole second half working on things. This game felt the same way. With Kansas City down multiple scores in the second half, the Chiefs eschewed trying to win for trying to get Larry Johnson started- passively running the ball between the tackles as the Eagles added eighth and ninth defenders into the box. Not a very entertaining or competitive afternoon.

My brother pointed out during pre-game introductions that only one Eagle offensive player was a starter opening day last year: Delaware State's Jamaal Jackson. The Eagles had six starting offensive players out: both guards, the left tackle, one wide out (Curtis) and the entire McNabb/Westbrook axis.

But once again, the Eagles plugged real serviceable, groomed reinforcements into the holes and got a credible offensive day. People who claim Reid can’t coach ought to realize this is pretty standard for Philadelphia the last decade- the consistent play-off appearances are part and parcel of their competence in building out roster spots 24 through 45.

Look at yesterday. Both guards were unnoticeable- which might just be your goal as an NFL guard. Filling in at left tackle, Winston Justice might just being making a leap to serviceable. That is no joke in a League where there might not be 62 serviceable OTs in the entire league. McCoy is a better player right now than the always gimpy Westbrook. And Maclin and Brown caught balls while replacing Kevin Curtis. I think we may be learning why Baskett was let go rather than Brown… because Kevin Curtis is getting real close to being a constant on the de-activated roster. Curtis is looking at an unholy superfecta: younger credible replacements, that cost less, currently contributing and presently not hurt. If your hole is number two wide-out, and not special teams ace, Brown looks better on the roster than Baskett.

And of course, Kevin Kolb continued to improve- that old C-USA training makes him quite willing to throw 35-ish balls and generate big numbers (first quarterback in history to throw for 300 yards plus in his first two starts!). Okay, this was no division road game- but rather a Chiefs outfit that couldn’t score enough to put any pressure on Kolb to match points. Still, while the Chiefs are heading to 3-13- their defense is credible, it is their offense that is a wreck.

In two games, Kolb has proven he can make every throw: outs, screens, over the middle, seam routes, etc. He has hooked up with Jackson three times already in the past two games for touchdowns of over 60+ yards- and all three throws were stone strikes.

In his other sustained action, Kolb has been a turnover machine- but even in the team wide Ravens (last year) and Saints debacles, he always completed a lot of balls in the midst of the interceptions. Some guys never get over the turnover propensity (AJ Feeley?). Hopefully he will. And this turnover free performance is a start.

Oh When the Saints.... Score and Score and Score

At least it was a nice day.

It was a hypnagogic day at the Linc- a vexing vibe. On the surface, it was a tale of two halves. How many times have the Eagles gotten blown out, yet exited the field at the half to a rousing ovation? The young back-up quarterback, after gustily navigating the first thirty minutes, had marched his team right down the field in the two-minute drill for a late field goal- cutting the margin to a mere four points. Then the second half: Ellis Hobbs’ fumbles the second half kick-off, and a survivable one score game became a tricky two score game. The defense took the opportunity to promptly fold its cards- making us all miss the Brian Dawkins’ iron will for the official first time.

But it also had this weird, exhibition-style game feel to it. In 2007 and 2008, the Eagles began to have this early season “protect the roster for the haul” approach- as if the season doesn’t begin until after the bye week. Worse, since Philadelphia resolutely doesn’t do or show anything in the pre-season games, a lot of prep work and experimentation bleeds over to the first month. So, as in the past two years’ September tilts, right before game time, the Eagles scratched or de-activated a bunch of players. Then the unknowable back-up quarterback played; Westbrook’s touches were managed. After the game was well over competitively, Kolb and the first unit were out there pitching and catching, as if this was all was an excuse to get this o-line some work and Kolb some seasoning.

The unorthodox game plan was fun- but again, it also smacked both of a lack of belief the Eagles could score 21 straight up and a vague desire to get some use from McNabb’s absence “to work on things” (i.e. the “Wildcat”). The lack of confidence seemed to hang out there- Bill Bergey on the post game said it didn’t feel like the offense came to play NFL-style football. As a C-USA observers, we know about this. We see it when Tulane plays second tier BCS teams- a desire to score by being unusual to prepare for and getting a gimmick or two to break the right way. This hopeful approach- try to trick our way to three TDs and play to zero mistakes- unraveled when the special teams began to make brutal mistakes. Fortuna- you capricious sprite! And the horrid six minute return mid-game meltdown (penalties and turnovers) became an excuse to for the defense to just go home.

So, the loss stinks. Fortunately, Kolb did enough in his first start to warrant not playing Garcia next week (thus not wasting precious development time under center- the Eagles gain nothing from playing Garcia except surviving another week, playing Kolb turns those snaps into concrete evaluation and hopefully, improvements). I’m not going crazy- those gaudy yardage was piled up late- but not cynical either (two interceptions were in garbage time forcing balls Kolb would never throw in a real game). Bottom line: he completed a ton of balls, looked like he could belong. I want to see him again.

Look, it was a bad scene- no denying that. But right now, New Orleans is genuine good- and their “A”- game is gonna wreak havoc on a lot of teams having a bad day, trying to break in a new quarterback, unable to match their firepower. Long way to January: we know the Eagles seemingly can mange season after season to get there, we’ll see about the Saints.

2009 Eagles Preview

Currently, I am unavailable- camping in the mountains of New Hampshire. So, if you are reading this, I have properly utilized the scheduling option and consequently, here is my prediction for the Philadelphia Eagles!

I was watching ESPN last weekend- where they had a series of talking heads come on and pick the Philadelphia Eagles’ to win "more" than ten games. As a result, I feel like the resident crazy person- because I just don’t get all the optimism.

For the better part of a decade now, the Eagles have built a pretty good record of success on three main ideas. First, the McNabb/Westbrook axis has been as good a production versus cap dollars axis as there has been in the NFC. Second, the refusal to allocate cap dollars to thirtysomething loyal roster players and free agents has freed up monies to keep a very talented group of third, fourth year players in the second half of the roster to provide both depth and groomed prospects. Third, in a high turnover, capped League, the Eagles constancy of approach at quarterback, the offensive lines, defensive secondary and coaching staff have played great dividends- consistency of approach is the greatest intangible in a League where upheaval is common.

So, I’m worried. I don’t believe in the McNabb/Westbrook axis anymore. McNabb hasn’t been a Pro-Bowl level player since the Super Bowl (four years ago!) and, while I don’t know what they will get from Westbrook, I doubt it will be "eleven high quality games" worth. In the decade Runyan and Thomas acted as well above average OTs here, the regime unfortunately failed to develop adequate replacements- short of moving Andrews outside and thus creating yet another OL gap. So they’ve taken the Washington Redskins’ approach- pay money and first day draft picks for tackles and start moving people around. Both new OTs (or OT and OG) acquired this way are hurt already.

And contrary to league-wide opinion, I think they punked the draft- at least for this year. For a team that is all about now, I don’t see how Maclin contributes fifty catches. And as for McCoy, he slipped to the second round because of doubts about his blocking- and we all know how much RBs play in Philadelphia if they cannot block (see Ryan Moats). There is no third round pick. So no first day draft picks figure to start and contribute immediately- which is frankly dumb if your goal is Super Bowl and not a giant development project.

My view on Vick is also sort of “bleah”. In the pre-season he was as inclined to fall down over his own feet or throw an interception as he was to do something positive. And if he has to play quarterback in a pinch for real- well, I’m not encouraged. Hard to see him moving the win total much. Maybe he can rush for some third and shorts- cause culturally that seems to be a real issue for Philadelphia for like a decade.

I’m not down on the Eagles per se. I just don’t think they are much better than the crew that managed to win nine games last year: same troubled/hobbled McNabb and Westbrook show, no immediate reinforcements from the draft- and add in a serious blow to the stable offensive line. If they get the same kind of favorable play-off draw, they could move forward- but equally, they are a clear step behind the AFC powers.

I think they’ll get back to the play-offs though. The Giants still are troubled on offense- the Eagles exposed their passing game woes big time late last year and I don’t think you can win eleven games if you can’t throw effectively. Dallas seems to have a lot of key actors who have failed repeatedly in big spots being asked to try again. Honesly, only Washington seems marginally better- and with a little luck and leap forward from Campbell could be this year’s surprise, come from nowhere, division champion.

A fair over/under for the Eagles is right where last year’s team finished up: 9.5 wins. There is just a whole lot of status quo back from last year’s 9.5 win effort- and whatever improvements made are offset by the mess the offensive line figures to be for large patches of the season.

Attention Philadelphia: Hide All Dogs

Thursday, I was at the Linc as news of the Eagles’ signing of Michael Vick began to percolate through the building. I have always been struck at how fast news and the resultant organized response flies around the ring concourse. At halftime, bands of fans were loitering on the concourse singing “Who Let The Dogs Out”- which will only migrate inside to the seats. Thirty thousand fans blurting out the Baha Men hit will only serve as another black eye for denizens of the 200 level.

I’m not going to rehash the obvious facts involving Vick. If you were going to bring him in anywhere, Philadelphia is as good a place as any football-wise: established quarterback, safe head coach, minimal financial commitment. Vick is going to earn a relative pittance- and will in no way push for serious playing time. However, I would make two points.

First, don’t underestimate the locker room. I’m not sure any NFL player wants to get involved in parsing shades of dog fighting- defining where exactly they come down on the spectrum of heinous to stupid. But like any peer collective, Vick probably gets more leeway from the players' union than the media. So Dungy and McNabb strike me as authentic here. Second, there is no way the Eagles do this without the blessing from the “official” NFL: the commissioner and owners. I’m not saying there is a quid pro quo here- but someone had to eat this, and I am sure the NFL was eager to see this get resolved, and get resolved in one of the League’s more sane organizations.

That being said I’m not sure I’d have done it. I've never been a Vick fan as a player either- see this missive entitled "Why I Don't Like Vick" from 2006). Consequently, the on-field rewards seem real minimal to me- a few snaps per game, a couple of stunt plays. I know the Eagles culturally are into roster risks with upside (there is always some Australian footballer loitering around), but this is a whole new level.

The problems with Vick returning to the NFL are myriad- but one understated issue, and perhaps ultimate, is that the guy was just not that good. His last season, he made 16 starts and completed a shade over 200 balls. And let’s face it- most of the throws he is asked to make are not “aggressive”. That is 12 a game? That is horrible. He had six games where he completed ten or fewer balls

Can you point to another 30 year old quarterback who completed twelve of fewer balls in half his starts that was anything but a real marginal roster candidate? I can’t. I’m not sure he’d be on anyone’s radar as a serous contributor if, say, he had missed the season for some benign injury.

He can’t contribute immediately to a team with many pieces missing only a quarterback. I’m not excited about putting up with him and his issues for a real marginal back-up; I can find other guys who can bounce half their throws that don’t generate a zillion protestors. And there is opportunity cost here. Frankly, there are other guys with better pedigrees as rehab projects or specialty contibutors.

As Bob Ryan pointed out on PTI yesterday, this isn’t Vick’s second chance. It is more like his tenth or something. He is a seven year vet- but I don’t want him mentoring my young players (let alone being physically around children, women, pets, alcohol, fans). I’d rather give that roster spot, development time and $1.6M to a prospect with perhaps less upside but none of the cancers.

We Need More People To Tackle

Leaks from the Philadelphia Eagles were brutal yesterday- with all signs pointing to the fact that MLB Stewart Bradley is out for the season with a torn ACL.

The Eagles’ turnaround last year in the final third of the season from disheartening .500 mob to in the mix NFL contender was fueled largely by the elevation of the defense from kinda good to great (at least until the NFC Championship Game). And that elevation was fueled by the introduction of Bradley and Jordan into the mix, full time, at line backer. Subtracting out the slow Omar Gaither- introducing two fresh athletic players- elevated the ‘backers from bad to good in one fell swoop. Subsequently, the defense fell into place.

In particular, Bradley quietly became one of the Eagles most important starters. Certainly, the ability gap between him and his on paper "replacement" has to be among the largest on the team. As a consequence, the ‘backers are back to being a problem. Omar Gaither seems the likely replacement- but in an act of hope over experience, last year’s sixth round pick- Joe Mays- apparently is the new secret dream of the regime. Or, if not “dream”, best case scenario. I think that experiment is not founded so much in Mays’ readiness or capacity- but more the obvious realization that Omar simply isn’t very good. Frankly, in a perfect Eagles’ world, I’m not sure Omar would make the team.

The Eagles refuse to spend money or consistent first day picks on linebackers- so they have a real Washington Redskin style depth situation there. Their only real plan to stumble on a very good linebacker is to sort of get lucky, draft one late and enjoy superior play on the subsequent bargain contract. They had their dream scenario in Bradley- a third round pick. Now, they’re stuck with the uninspiring cast of characters left at that position.

Consequently, the defense has to be graded down. Other than the cornerbacks, I can’t think of a guy it hurts more to lose on defense. Along the defensive line they have ample reinforcements- at ‘backer, they have none.