People Are Catching Up

Rumblings that all is not right with the "MVP" quarterback Michael Vick:

Last week, the Eagles converted just 1 of 5 red-zone opportunities against the Giants. But thanks to five giveaways by the Giants, they still managed to cruise to a 27-17 win.

They weren't so lucky against the Bears. This time, another dreadful 1-for-5 red-zone performance resulted in a five-point loss....

And then this:

Aside from a 4-for-4 red-zone performance in their impressive, could-do-no-wrong, 59-28 win over the Redskins 2 weeks ago, the Eagles have been struggling in the red zone for a while now. Take out the Washington game and they're a lousy 6-for-23 in the red zone in their last five games.

That last quote really gives you a sense of the endless laudatory coverage Vick gets. Instead of reading "struggling in the red zone for a while now", it should read "struggling in the red zone since Vick took over at quarterback."

The Eagles have just six total TDs in this recent stretch of Colts, Giants and Bears- two of those TDs were the result of giant, atypical McCoy rushes, another was pretty close to garbage time. They have good, proven skill players who can catch and get open: Jackson, Maclin, McCoy, Celek. What is the problem?

Can’t leave Michael Vick out of that answer. The Colts, Bears and Giants offer decent-to-good defenses. With the back of the end zone providing safety help, these teams cheat the run- particularly the run from Vick. Kept in the pocket, unable to extend plays, Vick isn’t even an average passer. He’s inaccurate (this guy has missed more big throws in four weeks than McNabb did in seasons- and no one says anything), and no one would describe him as heady.

Between the twenties, Vick can outrun the defensive secondary support, beat the safety ot the first down marker, get away from the linebacker containing on the edge. His quality receiving corps gets open, which eliminates the need for throwing perfection. But near the goal line, he is a liability.

The Eagles would not be 6-for-23 in the red zone with Kolb at quarterback. Frankly, it seems hard to argue that Kolb isn’t a better guy to throw those tight slants and fades. Kolb might not have a cannon- but he is a proficient read it and throw it quarterback (ed. note: two NFC player of the week awards in his first six starts). And it is a small leap from “clearly better in the red zone “ to “clearly better".

The Vick for MVP pick talk has died. Next, the pro-Bowl talk will peter out as the ceiling of one, maybe two touchdowns a game against even decent defenses becomes increasingly clear.

It is all about understanding the League. It isn’t the NBA- a star-system where the elite rewrite the rules. It is more like baseball- where the pursuit of important numbers and metrics ruthlessly rule outcomes. And you can’t be a good quarterback in this league if you cannot pass the football accurately. Vick is fun and different- but there is that specific hole in his game. And the League is catching up weekly. Vick gets out of the pocket less. There are fewer blitzers- and more “go ahead and beat the coverage Michael”. And the cruel metrics- red zone pass completion percentage, yards per attempt, time to accurate release- start driving poor red zone success ratios.

By Christmas there will be a burgeoning chorus for Kolb.

Play Kolb

Kolb versus Vick. Sounds like a monster movie from the UHF days.

It is a quarterback controversy because it defies an easy answer. I am in no mood to rehash the usual rejoinders. I get it. Lectures that Vick against Detroit was better than Kolb versus Green Bay get real circular quick (as Kolb was better last year versus the Chiefs than Vick was last week).

There are two considerations Coach Reid cannot get around:

1. This year, the Philadelphia Eagles are not winning the Super Bowl.
2. Barring catastrophic injury, Kevin Kolb is the starting quarterback in 2011.

Item one semi-frees the Eagles from immediate win-loss consequences. Yes, losing rarely helps. But sacrificing a few games to Kolb’s development as the franchise quarterback for the rest of this decade isn’t outrageous. It is a trade-off every team must make at some time- best not to do it when you have a Super Bowl ready team (see Mark Sanchez or Joe Flacco). Playing Kolb with an eye toward future success is not undefendable.

Particularly in light of the second item. Item two addresses the development question directly. Listen: there is no way Michael Vick is on this team next year.

The Eagles are not franchising him- putting the tag on (they aren't paying him any average salary that involves guys like Manning and Brady). As an outright free agent, should Vick play well, he isn’t getting a zillion dollars to stay from Philadelphia. There is no forthcoming franchise level dollar commitment coming from this organization. Frankly, a few good starts don’t justify the risk of giving a felon with a history of curious decisions the keys to your team. Great, he has managed to avoid a probation violation (barely)- but if the lights come back on, and the clubbing weekends commence with $30 million in his pocket... the Eagles aren’t taking that risk.

So every snap he takes now takes away from “finding out” about Kolb. The Eagles cannot let this linger into a JP Losman, Partick Ramsey situation- high draft picks who never got sustained looks, lingering, keeping their teams set on permanent “what if?” status at the most important position in pro sports. Finding out about Kevin Kolb in 2010 is the overriding theme of 2010.

Do not get sidetracked. Follow the plan.

Kolb showed enough last year to deserve an uninterrupted look. Yes, he had a horrid half versus the Packers. But a lot of quarterbacks had horrid halves week one: Flacco, Sanchez, Romo. Many defenses were ahead of offenses across the League as the elephant showed up- and by many accounts, Green Bay figures to have one of the best defenses in the NFC. You simply cannot blow up a multi-year franchise quarterback experiment, one with much promise, because of a bad half in week one. That is panic- not strategy, not development.

To deviate from said multi-year plan, you need a reason more compelling than the marginal cost of beating Jacksonville this weekend. For example, I would be willing to deviate from that plan if either the Eagles could win a championship or Vick had a decent chance of starting here next year (Let alone thru 2015).

Neither is true. Play Kolb.

The Chiefs Stink

Okay, the Chiefs stink. I wrote last week’s game had an exhibition feel to it, as the Eagles spent the whole second half working on things. This game felt the same way. With Kansas City down multiple scores in the second half, the Chiefs eschewed trying to win for trying to get Larry Johnson started- passively running the ball between the tackles as the Eagles added eighth and ninth defenders into the box. Not a very entertaining or competitive afternoon.

My brother pointed out during pre-game introductions that only one Eagle offensive player was a starter opening day last year: Delaware State's Jamaal Jackson. The Eagles had six starting offensive players out: both guards, the left tackle, one wide out (Curtis) and the entire McNabb/Westbrook axis.

But once again, the Eagles plugged real serviceable, groomed reinforcements into the holes and got a credible offensive day. People who claim Reid can’t coach ought to realize this is pretty standard for Philadelphia the last decade- the consistent play-off appearances are part and parcel of their competence in building out roster spots 24 through 45.

Look at yesterday. Both guards were unnoticeable- which might just be your goal as an NFL guard. Filling in at left tackle, Winston Justice might just being making a leap to serviceable. That is no joke in a League where there might not be 62 serviceable OTs in the entire league. McCoy is a better player right now than the always gimpy Westbrook. And Maclin and Brown caught balls while replacing Kevin Curtis. I think we may be learning why Baskett was let go rather than Brown… because Kevin Curtis is getting real close to being a constant on the de-activated roster. Curtis is looking at an unholy superfecta: younger credible replacements, that cost less, currently contributing and presently not hurt. If your hole is number two wide-out, and not special teams ace, Brown looks better on the roster than Baskett.

And of course, Kevin Kolb continued to improve- that old C-USA training makes him quite willing to throw 35-ish balls and generate big numbers (first quarterback in history to throw for 300 yards plus in his first two starts!). Okay, this was no division road game- but rather a Chiefs outfit that couldn’t score enough to put any pressure on Kolb to match points. Still, while the Chiefs are heading to 3-13- their defense is credible, it is their offense that is a wreck.

In two games, Kolb has proven he can make every throw: outs, screens, over the middle, seam routes, etc. He has hooked up with Jackson three times already in the past two games for touchdowns of over 60+ yards- and all three throws were stone strikes.

In his other sustained action, Kolb has been a turnover machine- but even in the team wide Ravens (last year) and Saints debacles, he always completed a lot of balls in the midst of the interceptions. Some guys never get over the turnover propensity (AJ Feeley?). Hopefully he will. And this turnover free performance is a start.