Friday, November 19, 2010

Vegas Knows The Wrong Quarterback Is Playing

This blurb ran in the New York Post this morning:

The Giants will try to go point-for-point with the Eagles with three starters — center Shaun O’Hara, left tackle David Diehl and receiver Steve Smith — again unable to play and another starter, left tackle Shawn Andrews, possibly out with a sore back.

Manning showed some edge this week... He didn’t buy for one moment that the Giants should be concerned with the injuries to hit the offensive line or that rookie Duke Calhoun would have to play a more prominent role with Smith sidelined and Ramses Barden out for the remainder of the season. “Duke’s the only guy that doesn’t have any playing experience,” Manning said. “Everybody else has played and done some good stuff.”

What about Kevin Boothe, who last week was activated for the first time all season and has to start at left tackle? “He’s played in the past,” Manning said. What about Will Beatty, who will have to start if Andrews can’t play? “Started for us,” Manning said.

Looking at last week’s results- Eagles humiliating Washington, New York being humiliated by Dallas- is anyone else shocked that the Eagles are only -3 over the Giants? A line implying a toss-up at a neutral site?

I’m not. Because both Vegas and I know the Eagles are playing the wrong quarterback.

Sure, the Eagles looked very nifty destroying an increasing mess in Washington behind those twenty Vick completions.

But Vegas and I know that consistent low completion total is an issue. Heck, let's cast back a mere week. Against Indianapolis, a mere step up to “decent” on defense from Washington, those twenty-ish completions led to a very Vick like 2 TDs, and only one TD over the last 58 minutes. People who make these lines know how the League works. A quarterback who can't complete passes can't routinely score 24 points against decent pro outifts.

Playing the non-comatose Giants defense, figure a likely revert back for Vick- to two scores versus seven- and Eli Manning looks likely, 50-50, to keep up. Vegas certainly sees no advantage in having Vick’s two touchdown capacity in there versus Manning.

Otherwise, how do you explain it? I know it sounds nuts- but there is the proof in black and white from people who know how the game works.

Psst... if Kolb were starting, would this game be even in Vegas? Hardly. The Eagles would be -6 over New York.