Woe

Even if it ended my freezing at Ice Station Lurie, Vick’s next-to-last play interception was a tough way to go out. Still, it is always a question of expectations. I never was sold that the Eagles were very good. My pre-season prediction of nine wins, wild card still feels right- as the end win total and expectations were goosed by the Eagles abandoning the rebuilding aspect of the season for a total “win now with Vick” approach, plus a weak NFC East. Someone had to win it.

In all fairness, the Packers dominated. The Eagles could not do much on offense or defense. It really wasn’t even to their credit that they hung around to the end. Long time readers of this blog know exactly why the Eagles had a chance to steal it in the end.

Green Bay simply ran the ball too much. Intoxicated by Stark’s 23 carry, 123 yard performance, they committed to a run pass mix of 27 pass-32 rushes. The Eagles were in no mood to force Green Bay to forestall that sort of "success" by cheating the run- allowing the Packers to rush the football, cheating the big pass play instead. The Packers consistently took the ball out of the hands of the second best QB in the NFC. In the previous seven games, Aaron Rodgers had completed 71% of his passes, 19 TDs versus 2 INTs, a 122.0 passer rating- and Green Bay was content to pound Starks? against this Eagles' lousy defensive secondary?

That was just dumb. And, as always happens, Green Bay played great on offense, completely executed their game plan at a high level, and scored a mere 21 points. Frankly, in the NFL, if you play great on offense, you need to score more than 21- because a passing offense, even playing sort of incoherently, can threaten that number. As the Eagles, in fact did.

Vick kept chucking- because a pro offense with good skill players generates consistent field position flipping plays sort of accident, simple occurrence, in the passing game. Add in zero turnovers until the last pass, denying Green Bay any free points, and you have a script for an opportunity to steal a game you deserved to lose by two scores.

There are two major areas of disconnect between the Eagles and the elite. First, there is a real talent deficiency on defense. It is hard to point to any single player that took the field Sunday evening and say said player is better than average. I suppose Trent Cole and Asante Samuel would be the closest. One could fairly say that had above average seasons- but both clearly slowed down in the second half. On the actual game Sunday, that very day, not one Eagles player would clearly rate “above average”.

The Eagles' decade or so of quality professionalism has been driven by a good understanding of managing the salary cap, associated roster manipulation and the passing nature of the league- plus good, not great, drafting. But the current lack of defensive talent is driven by totaling blowing the last two drafts.

The Eagles last two drafts are here and here. Note in 2010 the Eagles took FIVE defensive players in the first four rounds- not one started Sunday. I raged about them at the time- and I stand by it now. Not one guy in the last two drafts was on the field as a plus NFL defensive player. And it is hard to be good if you miss that much. 7th rounder Lamar Chaney might be the only guy who even started- as an emergency fill in for MLB Stewart Bradley.

The second disconnect is the lack of consistent quarterback production. Vick’s production continued to spiral down again Sunday- second straight sub-80 quarterback rating. Teams have figured Vick out- and you can’t devote as many snaps as the Eagles do to the passing game, and be rewarded with 20 completions, three sacks and a bad pick. It simply isn’t enough. Goose that completion total to 28, and the Eagles win Sunday despite all their other woes.

Mind you, it isn’t all Vick’s fault. Vick is not a miracle worker. As a merely okay passer susceptible to pressure, he isn’t the kind of quarterback who papers over faults, but rather a mediocre quarterback who needs the real trappings of real offense to paper over his flaws: a good line, good receiving options, a running game. One positive about this play-off failure is that my great in-season fear is negated: no one is talking about yoking the Eagles to a long term deal with Vick any longer.

Later in the week I’ll post the fix-it column. But as a quick aside for Philadelphia fans, today is the 35th anniversary of one of the great days in Philadelphia sports- the crushing of the Red Army. As a sign of this blog’s longevity, my posting of the 30th anniversary is recorded here.

All Souls Day

All Souls Day? Well, it is the day after All Saints Day, no?

We’re not churlish here at Frank Helps You Think It All Out. The first order of business is to offer congratulations to the fans of the New Orleans Saints.

In hockey and basketball, where the play-offs involve winning four out of seven, the order of business is to produce a repeatable formula for victory. The Super Bowl is different- you only got to prevail once. I’m not sure New Orleans has a repeatable formula- score 31 points scoring only two offensive touchdowns?- but it doesn’t matter one whit either.

The two main ways to close the gap with a superior outfit in the NFL: turnovers and mistakes (normally penalties and any kicking game follies). Ultimately, the Saints are a good team. They haven’t played consistent great offense since before winter, and correspondingly played more like good offense yesterday: the aforementioned two scores, a few field goals, solid passing total (just short of 300 yards), wasting few snaps rushing the football. But that was all the needed. A good NFL team with a “+2” turnover advantage (the fumbled on side kick, fourth quarter interception) almost never loses- and winning that battle was a huge step in closing the gap.

Sean Payton deserves credit. A lot of coaches passively accept the status quo. But an on-sides kick to start the second half is indicative of both a coach unsure he can win playing straight up (I mean, it is a huge gamble, particularly when losing) and a coach willing to do what it takes to change the game’s nature to one he has a better chance to win.

To wit, I don’t know if the Saints are a better football team than Indianapolis. But as the game bled into the third and fourth quarter, it became less a game about the deployment of football talent (where I still think the Colts are better) to a game of who really messes up first. On Sunday, the Saints were the clear winner of that game- and the answer to is “who is more heady under pressure?” might be a question that it was easier for the Saints to answer than “who is a better pure collective of football talent?”

The Saints kept up relentless pressure on to not make a killer mistake. New Orleans made their kicks, covered their kicks, did not give up first downs on penalties, etc. Down a score, with time running down, Manning was under increasing pressure to force the issue… and he made the final terrible error to wrap the title up for New Orleans.

Prediction Friday? Super Bowl Edition

I am not going to rehash last week’s Super Bowl pick much. I don't want to inflame the proletarius too much. The line opened with a frankly absurd Indianapolis -2.5 over New Orleans. As predicted, it quickly rallied to the Colts giving six- before settling down to five in the wake of the Dwight Freeney saga. If it appears he is going to play, this still cheap line will go to six and a hook, maybe seven.

This increasing number further illustrates a consensus in Vegas that the Saints best football was probably back in November. Put it this way, I think the 9-7 Jets, admittedly playing their best football in January, would probably be a narrow favorite over the Saints here. The Colts were seven over New York at home- a real similar line to New Orleans here at a neutral site. I would not have been surprised to see the Jets -1 over the Saints here. That would shock people- but just do the math. Put this game in Indy, the Colts would approach a whopping nine, ten.
Manning dumped a ton of big scoring on the Jets' defense in little more than a half, once he figured New York out. At season’s end, the Jets' defense was one of the best in the League- a claim hard to make about New Orleans. The Saints are damned opportunistic- but those are mistakes they’re simply not going to get Sunday. Gregg Williams isn’t going to keep the Colts under thirty. Heck, they couldn't keep the Vikes out of the end zone four times with five turnovers in their own building.

In November, the Saints could keep up score for score- but Dallas showed attacking the interior of the New Orleans’ offensive line with the pass rush could control, albeit not stop, the Saints attack. Indianapolis can do that- and keep the Saints from the five TD scores they’ll need to win this thing.

My only real concern is that my fave public prognosticator likes the Saints. The respected Wildcat says:

It’s tough to resist the drumbeat accompanying the canonization of Peyton Manning; he is awesome, the vital cog, a coach who can play with all the answers. But Drew Brees put on some sensational natural grass shows this season, especially Miami and Philadelphia. Opportunistic, turnover-creating defense, superior running game, Reggie Bush running in open space- and you’re getting points!

But I think that is just it. I don’t believe running the football means much in the pro-game. You’re just taking snaps away from Drew Brees. Manning isn’t going to turn the ball over. And having your season depend on Reggie Bush... well, I’ll take that bet gladly. Colts -5 for me.

Don't Be Dirty

Last week, I was taken to task a little for chiding the officials vis-à-vis the Saints- despite national reprobation: here, here, here and here. Consequently, I further would gently point to today’s NY Times blog “Fifth Down” entitled Do The Saints Play Dirty? agreeing with my point- detailing the fact that their readers and journalists have been unhappy about the unpenalized liberties of the Saints defensive front.

I have zero comment as to whether the Saints are dirty. I imagine it would come right down to party lines- plus a goodly number, like me, with no informed opinion whatsoever.

I’m more interested in the culture Gregg Williams brags about cultivating- which is obviously emblematic of just about everyone in the NFL- and is of course completely contrary to the NFL’s desires to protect their member franchises’ $50-$100M quarterback assets:

“This guy’s got a great clock in his head,” Williams told 104.5 The Zone. “The big thing is that he throws the ball so early that we’re going to have to do a good job of finding ways to get to him, and when we do get to him we’re going to have to make sure he gets a couple ‘remember me’ shots when we get there.”

There are two ways to solve this sort of problem- the physical intimidation of your star players and gate attractions. The first is the NFL approach- which is to punish improper hits and liberties punitively and without regard to intent. As a consequence, the sport enjoys frustrating crippling personal foul penalties not only for true fouls but also inadvertent and meaningless “blows to the head”. Clearly, the fouls are of differing magnitudes, but the League needs to protect these players- particularly in a League where the lack of quality quarterback play is a death sentence: Oakland, Detroit, St. Louis, etc.

The second- and probably much better way- is to allow players to enforce their own code via wink and a nod discipline. This is notable in baseball- where pitchers retaliate “outside the rules” for infractions top the code. Also hockey, where the five minute fighting penalty gives teams a way to police a code of unacceptable behavior toward franchise meal ticket. There is a reason why hockey stars have no where neart the number of lazy, undisciplined hits inflicted on them as quarterbacks, despite playing five times as many games and frequently being unprotected to big, high speed, open ice shots.

Obviously, these techniques are not available or appropriate to all sports. I’ve written before that NASCAR has a hockey helmet problem.

The NHL mandated helmets to protect players’ heads- and "surprisingly" stick fouls and injuries to the head sky-rocketed. Putting the helmet on players’ heads removed the collective responsibility to police your stick to keep your peers from getting hurt. If you are increasing safety, while decreasing responsibility to keep one another safe, you aren’t advancing anything.

NASCAR’s never ending emphasis on safety has achieved a similar effect. They’ve made everything ostensibly “safer”- and accidents are through the roof. Every race now has ten cautions for people running into each other. Not too long ago they were able to run places like Talladega and Bristol with one or two (or zero). Drivers knew craziness could get them hurt or dead.

To wit, the reason the number of wrecks increases is the drivers have no way to enforce a code against poor or reckless behavior.

In the end, the NFL is probably forced into this procedure that emphasizes raw compliance to the letter of the rule over justice. Some of the Saints’ recent play has proved you can’t legislate dirty play- be it inadvertent or deliberate. Much like the speeding ticket, if you can’t prohibit the behavior, then you have got to make it very painful to get caught no matter what the reason.

Picking Green

Frank Helps You Think It All Out is on a solid 10-4 run picking the Eagles ATS in play-off games, including 2-1 last year: Vikings-win, Giants-win, Cards-loss. So for Philadelphia fans, perhaps it is a good thing that, while I am real uneasy about the Eagles chances tomorrow night, I'm inclined to take the head start. The New York Post obliges and has Dallas -4 over Philadelphia.

At first glance, four is a cheap line. As I wrote earlier in the week, did anybody in Las Vegas even see the game last week? Dallas seems better at every position but kicker and wide receiver. In fact, they are much better on defense- shutting out their last two opponents, holding the Saints to 17 on the road. The Eagles have scored one total offensive touchdown in two games against the Cowboys.

Add in a 24-0 beat down just six days ago, and this line looks a little nuts. No way the Eagles are one point ‘dogs on a neutral field, right?

I tend to think there is an unholy trifecta working in bettors’ minds here. First, Wade Phillips is calling the shots on the other side- and he is deeply distrusted. He is a guy with zero success is big, win-or-go-home spots. I would not want decisions vis-à-vis my entire season rattling around in his brainpan. There is also similar concern, not as deep, about Tony Romo.

Second, most bettors dismiss the magnitude of the beating of last week’s game. Dallas is good- falling down 14 to that defense can make you look worse than you are. Philadelphia got caught up in a game where Dallas successfully went to the emotional well. But, everything went Dallas' way- and they put up a not substantial 24 points.

Third, I think there is a real Desean Jackson price premium right now. Philadelphia really ought to be a touchdown ‘dog here- needing help to be within a score late. Well, for one thing, Jackson is generating that “free, unexpected score” more often than not. For another thing, for all its faults, the defense does force turnovers. Personally, I feel the Eagles will struggle to bust through seventeen points here through routine offense- but I also feel that Jackson on the defnese is 50-50 to bust a single crazy play over sixty minutes and push them into the 24-ish range. Between Jackson and a defense, this line is forced to reflect a favorable Eagles’ “random score” premium of half a touchdown- say three or four points- pushing the line from eight to four.

Ultimately, I don’t feel good about this game at all- Dallas is more than a touchdown better than Philadelphia on paper. But I also think Philadelphia will play a more heady game this time- and it is a division game, third time around. That does not make me confident in scoreboard separation- particularly again considering Philadelphia penchant for big play scores. This is the sort of game where it is real nice to be able to just strike for 50 yards in the absence of regular offensive ability. I’ll take Philadelphia +4 over Dallas.