Darkness

From The Hulaballo:

Despite persistent rumors of a potential coaching change, Tulane athletic director Rick Dickson decided Wednesday to retain Bob Toledo as the head coach of the struggling Green Wave football program. Toledo has compiled a 13-35 record during his four seasons with the Wave.

Tulane gave Toledo a one-year extension with an option for the 2012 season. Toledo was also given an endorsement from University President Scott Cohen.

Despair. Darkness.

Accordingly, the blog will go black for mourning.

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Let’s say you were a mad scientist- and, in a fit of cruelty, decided to recreate the end of the 2009 Tulane football experience?

Perhaps you might start with this year’s football team. Then, remove Ryan Griffin, and re-instate the spotty quarterback play. Take the current defense, pound on them until they are simply worn out, a shell of the unit that took the field earlier in the season versus Rutgers. The empty Dome and horrid special teams are already in place.

"Poof!”

Tulane and the fans are right back to the brutal end of last season- a crushing blowout, an exact repeat of last year’s UCF mess.

This is a game, like Rice last week, where Tulane needed to score to keep up, protect the defense, cover for both turnover and special teams woes. Kevin Moore just isn’t that guy, particularly playing from way behind with no one any good to throw too: DJ Banks zero catches (benched?), Ryan Grant four catches, one turnover. Plus, if Kemp is going to be a limited player at the quarterback position, he can’t be turning the ball over three times. This was going to be a tough game no matter what- but losing the turnover battle four-love made it hopeless.

The Wave could run it- a bright spot. Orleans Darkwa continued his nice rookie campaign with 129 yards, plus 13 carries for a nifty 63 in the first half, saved a bit perhaps by not losing either of his two fumbles. Sure, that sort of production is irrelevant based in an environment where you need to game plan to score six, seven touchdowns to just sort of be in it. Still, the RB position figures to be a plus next year- and unlike this campaign, at least one skill position figures to forecast better than average coming in to the 2011 season.

Bottom line, the defense just doesn’t have much left- an unreal 156 total points have been scored versus Tulane in the past three tilts. That is unreal- coming four years in to the Toledo regime. Surely the 'nauts cannot argue Toledo has "improved the defense".

We’ve seen the Green Wave wear down before. The lack of down roster talent, the roster spots after the first fifteen, is particularly painful now, late in the schedule. These are the guys that populate the woeful special teams, the guys you turn to when some rejuvenating fresh legs just about anywhere would help. But Tulane just doesn’t have them- so the kicking game is a wreck and there are no reinforcements for the weary.

Add in a well-coached, well-motivated opposition, and trouble was likely.

Bleah

As I type, the ninth inning of the 2009 World Series is lurching to its unsatisfying conclusion on my television. Listening to Manhattan cheerily celebrate around me is a lonely feeling. 28th and Third Avenue is surely Yankee country.

Here at the end, I’m satisfied the Yankees are better. Frankly, it feels a lot likewhen I was station ed in Germany back in 1993. The Phillies simply ran out of reliable starting pitching (as if Tommy Greene, Terry Mulholland and Danny Jackson were still here trying to be a second reliable option)- and even worse out of the bullpen. Philadelphia only won games when Cliff Lee pitched and pitched deep. And they were big Vegas underdogs in games he didn’t. In the end, the Phillies trusted Pedro Martinez- a guy who was on vacation in July- to make two Series’ starts over any of their normal rotation options. Conversely, the Yankees got real bulldog outings from their rotation in five of six games.

I also point out that while the Yankees and Phillies core hitters had similar struggles- Utley and Matsui aside- Damon and Jeter were on base repeatedly, Rollins was not. They set the table for the occasional spurts of production and gave the Phillies' pitching few easy innings. This week, Jimmy’s MVP season recedes ever further in the distance. Obviously, among the Phillies franchise players, Hamels and Lidge had very rough campaigns- but the day after day drain that Rollins took on the offense in bot hthe regular season and play-offs with his poor OBP is the team’s biggest weakness. Just look at Utley’s in-season indifferent RBI total (93!!). And Rollins salary makes this a tough issue- but I cannot imagine this guy is not off-season secret topic number one: what to do about Jimmy Rollins?

Next, the Yankees left-handed starters were able to put the clamps on the Phillies left-handed hitting (again, Utley aside). The DH was a killer in this Series- the Yankees got great production from Matsui- and the Phillies could not generate a right handed match up bat (Francisco was terrible). All year long Philadelphia worried that the left-handed power the Phillies sport in bunches could be neutralized. Finally, it was. Plus, Ibanez is probably looking at a 2010 more like the second half (rather than his MVP first half)- so a right handed bat to take some of the load off him, hit some quality DH, play when he is hurt, is a top of the list item.

So, they face an off-season with some real hard organizational questions- it is a lot easier to strategize a move from 80 to 90 wins than 90 wins to 100 wins. We mock the Yankess $450 million dollar off-season- but with the Phillies window open only a few more years, we might be looking at a $300 million version of our own. First, there is wrapping up Lee. He is a legit number one, the Phillies need a Cy Young style pitcher for the next three years, he makes as much sense as anyone else in baseball and frankly Hamels doesn’t look like a guy you can pencil in for even fifteen wins right now.

Second, the narrow window means Philadelphia probably needs to think long and hard about another top starter and yes, that means someone like Roy Halladay. It is pricin dollars and players (Rollins?), but they need another pitcher to tamp down these AL power line-ups.

The Yankees won this Series because they had three quality rotation options versus one. The Phillies simply can’t be sure of moving that number to two quality options with Hamels in 2010. Again, he very likely might be more a fourteen win pitcher (that most of his career has suggested) than a true MVP style player (that singular great play-off run). And the Phillies can’t let the window close without trying hard to find that second top guy- they owe that to three million fans who pay to see them.

A Sigh of Relief

If you want to, you could look down your nose and mock Tulane’s 42-32 win over I-AA McNeese State. Certainly, a huge sigh of relief swept certain quarters of New Orleans when the result when final.

But, not here at Frank Helps You Think It All Out. If it would have been catastrophic to lose to the Cowboys, it is not cynical to be very, very relieved at the passing of the trial. How many catastrophic losses in your life have you avoided and not felt more than a little emotional charge? It is human nature- and no victory versus a corresponding real disastrous, humiliating loss should draw a completely cynical response.

And it would have been a real trial to lose. I’m not sure Coach Toledo would have been able to survive it and an associated 1-11 death spiral. And the last thing this program needs right now is another coaching change, another lost recruiting class, another sign of instability. You might laugh and say Tulane avoided rock bottom. True, but rock bottom is a bad place to be institutionally. There is a big cultural difference between hopeless rock bottom and having something to build to on- Anderson and Willaims, say?- even if slight.

So, good job Tulane!

Plus, it was a little better win in retrospect than at first glance. The Wave never was in danger of losing- took the lead in the second quarter for good, had a second half lead of three scores (42-25). McNeese never had the ball in the fourth quarter with a chance to go ahead- and a cosmetic score made the game look closer than it really was.

Yes, the Tulane defense continued to be shockingly terrible. But the Wave’s top two players- the aforementioned Williams and Anderson- were unstoppable. This is potentially important because with the bad C-USA defenses that litter the remaining schedule, there could be some more wins, or a least non-embarrassing games that feature reasons to go to the Dome (editor’s note: very close to being cynical).

I’m not sure Army presents that much harder of a test. Yes, of course, there is last year’s disaster. But the Wave and Andre Anderson should be able to run the ball here- and another 160 yard rushing day should have them in this? Plus, how dialed in is Army for the Wave here? More on that for Prediction Thursday.

Fifth Best in American League East

Yesterday, I was at the Phillies game- and thus had a first hand look at this ongoing wreck of a homestand. The Phillies 1-5 mark this week is only salved by the Mets corresponding lackluster 2-4. The Phillies sharp 7-3 road trip has been largely erased (they are still up two games over the Mets over that duration however). The NL East has done little this week to suggest they are in the class of their American League counterpart.

The Phillies haven’t looked this bad, well, since last year’s run through the American League- when they were dominated by a collection of good and just above even AL outfits. The reasons for these embarrassing marks against the other league are closely tied to their poor home record. Their poor starting pitching, from a matchup standpoint, hurts them “extra” against great to very good offenses and also in this hitter’s ballpark (which moves everyone’s offense up a notch).

You can’t make pitching mistakes, generate poor WHIP figures or allow a ton of homeruns anywhere- but it is a real killer in this ballpark and against this AL clubs with quality hitters top to bottom: Red Sox and Toronto. The Phillies seem to start a ton of games at home down 3-1, 4-0, etc. after the third inning- as their starting pitching gets punished for mistakes and situations that might be a little more escapable against the Braves and Marlins or away from the launchpad at home. These National League attacks seem more balanced their American League counterparts: speed, gap power in the three hole, etc.- where the good AL brings thunder every which way. The Phillies rotation seems more prone to be hurt by the latter. Our offense can cover for a couple of manufactured runs- not multiple early crooked numbers on the linescore.

Speaking of the Jays, I don’t know about you, but that is a good team. Their starting pitching is better than Philadelphia- and they have a lot of professional hitters in that line-up. They knocked around all elements of our pitching- starting and relief. Being third in the loaded AL East is no shame- and after watching the AL East win multiple series versus the Mets and Phillies, it is hard to argue that either Philadelphia (awful starting pitching) or the Mets (injuries everywhere) would be ahead of Toronto or Tampa Bay. And after this week’s ugly result (again, with an eye on the Mets), the Phillies seem to be a step behind Toronto and Boston.

Now what?

Well, how about a round of applause for the Philadelphia Phillies? Riding their outstanding core group of players and an MVP season from the big off-season pick-up, the defending world champions boast the second fewest losses in baseball. Only Los Angeles has got them beat in the loss column. Project Philadelphia out and the Phillies are on pace to win National League East with around 95 wins. And yet…

Let’s face it, they’ve been successful- but it feels tenuous. I guess we all know that over 162 games numbers and bodies win out- and the Phillies numbers and bodies in their rotation just doesn’t bode well over 110 more games.

As I pointed out when people were screaming for Happ to replace first Park and then Moyer- surplus starting pitching never lasts. The Phillies, in two weeks, have gone from having a surplus rotation option to needing to acquire a top of the rotation arm to have a sane chance at repeating.

And the Phillies have an official starting pitching problem. Now I haven’t been the biggest Brent Myers fan- this era's Kevin Gross. Bottom line: the guy hasn’t been a plus starting pitcher for two months in succession since 2006. And he hasn’t been real effective this year. If the Phillies had to win a game- right now- to save the season he would be my fifth choice to get the ball.

But he is an effective innings eater when healthy- and the rest of the rotation is no great shakes either. The ace has an ERA over five and has been spotty from the get go. Happ is probably the second best guy going right now. Moyer seems to have stabilized as a back of the rotation guy- but we have a surplus of candidates for that role right now.

And that is the worry. Take the Nats out and the Phillies are .500

I’m usually the biggest pro-patience guy going- but honestly, the Phillies need to make a trade. This is not sustainable. Heading into this schedule portion: ten games away, then five series versus the AL East- 28 days of games versus good teams, the rotation does not inspire.

This crew has “expose us” written all over them. I agree with Phillies Nation- .500 month-ish feels way too probable. And they are just another rotation issue away from something like 85-77.

A Terrible Ennui In Canada

One can only imagine the increasing panic in NHL offices this morning: phones jangling on a Sunday morning, breathless meadnering meetings. The Canadiens could not stop the Flyers. The referees cannot stop the Flyers. The NHL dream match up of a Finn (Koivu) and Russian (Kovalev) versus the greatest soccer player on ice (Sidney Crosby) has been postponed indefinitely. Nope, the eastern final will require teams to actually were helmets and hit people for sixty minutes.

A nice job by ESPN’s Scott Burnside. You fink! You missed this as bad as I missed the Derby. But you’re ostensibly a professional. Pylons on defense? True perhaps, but pylons with a pulse and courage.

Kevin Mio in the Montreal Gazette tries to soothe the residents of Quebec this morning:

It was a game the Canadiens probably shouldn't have lost - as was the case several times in this series - but in the end, Montreal made a few too many mistakes as key moments that allowed the Flyers to advance to the Eastern Conference final.

Gosh, I don’t know about that. Get beat four in a row? Sort of a trend there. I mean, had the Flyers won a fifth game in a row- which they almost did- would that remove some lingering doubt? So, no Stanley Cup for Canada this year- maybe they shouldn’t have been so quick to give up on the Nordiques, no? Adopt King Dollar, anything, as something needs to change?

As my father pointed out to me after Game Four, you shouldn’t overanalyze too much. Just where were the Canadiens not outplayed? The Flyers wingers were better, their defensemen a wash, and Montreal’s goaltending was horrid. Biron was pretty bad last night- for the second time in five games mindless Biron cheerleaders on Versus NHL Tonight- and they couldn’t win. The series was officiated in new NHL style- a parade of Flyers going to the box for being too rough and sassy- and Les Habitants could not take advantage.

Do you know “being sassy” is a minor penalty in the Swedish Elite League? You can look it up.

In the Frank Goal Judge Report: "If an attacking player has the puck deflect into the net off his skate or body, in any manner, the goal shall be allowed. . . . The goal shall not be allowed if the puck has been thrown or otherwise deliberately directed into the goal by any means other than a stick." On the Flyers’ second goal, Mike Richards absolutely tried to deliberately direct the puck and absolultely failed to do so. It hit him in the shoulder. No brainer: It counts.

The game was sort of a microcosm of much of the series. Down 3-1, the Flyers were forced to play the sort of game they play best- the very same one Coach Stevens is loathe to let them play with a lead- cycle their deep bunch of forwards and attack and score three-plus goals to win. Up 4-3, Stevens put them back in that shell emphasizing what they can’t do. Montreal promptly tied it- and the Flyers could get back to doing what they do best: score and score some more.

You can’t be down on a team in the conference finals- but yo! Coach. The answer to any scenario facing the Flyers, no matter what the media is telling you, is not “Boys, we gotta lean more on Hatcher, Jason Smith and Biron.”

Anyway, now we can sit back and hope the Rangers can bleed out the Penguins a little more.