Friday, December 21, 2007

“Toledo is a Genius”

The “Toledo is a Genius” chatter has died down substantially. Some of that, I feel, is due to a dawning realization: if you were forced to make a prediction right now about Tulane for 2008, 2-10 seems real, real likely.

Last season, they went into the season expecting Matt Forte to be a “plus” player- something like making any all C-USA squad. As the season progressed serendipity added the defensive front to that positional plus list. But really, that was it. And two “plus” League positions equaled three I-A wins.

Well, Tulane surrenders those two pluses. And I do not know where serendipity might give them even one back: the offensive line was a nice surprise last year- maybe that group?- the wide outs underachieved- could they move up? Still, if the quarterback play is still weak, why would they?

It is a problem.

Obviously, if they fix the quarterback situation, you can cover a whole lot of problems in a hurry in this League. But if they go with any of the inexperienced options, I can’t imagine they are plus from the word “go”- particularly given ou recent experience with Toledo and crew coaching up that position. Even if you like Moore, Kemp, etc.- are they really contributing at a high level before October 15 or so?

Reflecting on 2007, yet another problem I have with the season is that- assuming Scelfo simply is not a credible choice as an option going forward- Toledo did not vigorously attempt to resolve the quarterback situation. We STILL don’t know if Elliott can play. No one was really extensively seasoned; Moore is still a green player.

I can’t see them being “better” with more passing game follies, losing the quality d-line and Matt Forte. Four wins, minus a little, becomes three. Replace the I-AA game with Alabama, now you are at two. And today, I’m somewhere there.