Let's Take This Show On The Road

My real good roll picking the Eagles ATS in the play-offs came to an end last week. I had the Eagles winning the game, but the Giants managed a backdoor cover- which I suppose evens me up for the Eagles similar cover against New England two years back.

This just feels like a hard game for the Eagles to win. At a gut level, Saints -5 seems a little cheap.

Now, of course, neither outfit is a juggernaut. Simply, to me, the Eagles are a “pretty good” team playing particularly well- and the Saints are an “actual good” team playing well too. That is a pretty bare difference, but all intangibles go New Orleans’ way. Home game. This is the fourth game out of the last six where the Eagles have had either an “official” short week, play a team with a bye, or play a team with an extra day off- plus their fourth road effort. This particular short week comes after a tough divisional play-off game- and features a Saints team coming off a bye. That is a grueling stretch- and that short week angle is a big one in the NFL.

Give the Eagles a week off, play at a neutral site, and this is a toss up, Saints -2, something like that. But really, the Saints have zero excuses here. They should win.

Candidly, this game is all about New Orleans- if they play well, the Eagles probably can’t score enough points to stay close enough to steal it. But that is just it, right?

For all their faults, since Reid has arrived the Eagles are almost always a damn professional outfit that plays the right way. They are going to do their things. Philly will show up. They should run the ball against a pretty soft front seven. They won’t turn it over. They’ll cover kicks, make kicks. They won’t commit a zillion penalties. In the NFL, if you don’t beat yourself, don’t turn it over, you are normally in it- even on the road against a better team. Heck, see the Giants last week. The Saints cannot come out and, like the Eagles did last week, screw around for two quarters- or they’ll be facing a one score, who makes a mistake first, sort of fourth quarter. And I like the Eagles in that mini-game a lot more than a whole football game.

But removing Lito Sheppard from the line-up really hurts. The Eagles don’t stop the run and can’t rush the passer consistently, but sort of compensate for that by being very good in the defensive secondary: a Hall of Fame safety, all-pro corner, a competent second corner, outstanding nickel back. Now they are at best okay at corner, suspect at nickel, and Sean Considine is an ongoing near disaster. Worse, the Saints, while on offense, are designed to hurt he Eagles: they can run it, the Eagles probably can’t stop them, Brees is a top notch distributor to skill people out on the perimeter and the Philadelphia outside LBs and strong safety can’t cover anyone. Get you helmet Michael Lewis and report to the 1st down nickel. The Saints could score 4 TDs, 30+ points- that is a lot of points for Philly to match on the road.

The Eagles have a chance, but it is a passive one. The Saints have to make some mistakes with the ball and on special teams. Again, since the Saints are a better football team with a lot of intangibles moving their way- it would behoove the Eagles to try and turn this into something more than a contest involving football plays. It really wouldn’t hurt to see them stick Brees a little late, that sort of thing. Make it hard game for New Orleans to play, see how bad they want it.

But if the Saints play well and smart, they win- probably by more than a score. I’ll take New Orleans as the official pick and give the points.