This Kid Has Had Too Much Jim Beam

I like to think of my fellow season ticket holders today going through their mental checklist for Sunday: new “NFC East Division Champions” ball cap (check!), foot warmers (check!), enough Jim Beam to kill a moderately sized horse (check!).

I am on a real lucky or hot roll picking the Eagles against the spread in play-off games- eight out of nine (some examples from 2004: Minnesota, Atlanta, New England). The New York Post gives us the Eagles -7 over the Giants. That seems big, particularly for a division game- but early round play-off games usually have bigger than normal numbers attached.

I admit it; I hold the not exactly unique view that the Giants really stink. Last week, New York played about as well as they can play, spotted themselves an enormous lead- and it still was a life and death struggle against an absolutely horrid, on defense anyway, Redskins’ outfit. They’ve won two of their last eight- and honestly, over the second half of the season the Giants really are closer to a six-win team than a break even sort of club.

I don’t know what exactly New York can expect to do positive Sunday? They probably can’t stop the run, rush the passer or cover Philadelphia’s sufficing collection of wideouts. On offense, their quarterback is in a terrible slump, the wide out corps diminished and Shockey is obviously hurt. Barber should rush for 100+ yards, certainly he’ll be given every chance by Kevin Gilbride- but you know I just don’t believe that 28-for-113 on the ground translates into touchdowns and points in the pro game unless you can throw the ball as a result.

Philadelphia is not a great team- but they are a satisfactory outfit playing darn well, to potential. If I were the Giants I’d almost rather play a good team playing a little loose than the Eagles. Frankly, the Giants need help. They aren’t going to beat, on the road, anybody- good, bad or indifferent- without said help. I can’t see the Eagles helping them- committing a thousand penalties, turning it over three times- playing sharp as they are now.

But I can see the Giants doing that: penalties and turnovers, added to general badness. I suppose they have a puncher’s chance- it is Eagles-Giants after all. Coming into the game, I was nervous that the Eagles’ recent schedule- three straight division road games, two short weeks- might catch up with them. But a de facto bye week had to help there.

I can’t imagine the Giants, upon falling behind, can play well enough to keep it close (eliminating a back door cover). Manning can’t throw the ball effectively in order to play form behind- and it isn’t exactly a team that will rally around Coughlin.

Bottom line: the Eagles would have to play pretty badly and stupid for this to be a game going in to the fourth quarter. They are better, fresher, even, more disciplined, probably more engaged. I imagine they breeze here- so I’ll give seven, take Philadelphia- and see you in New Orleans next Sunday night.