Season Thoughts- Part 2

Just a quick look at Prediction Thursday- just for accountability sake. 8-4 ATS for the year- raising the all time Prediction Thursday mark to a real good 50-24. The secret? Picked against Tulane five times- won all five. Sigh....


Tulsa -13.5 over Tulane. At the season’s beginning, while I thought Tulane would be better, I didn’t think the defense had improved at all- and Tulsa’s “new” offense would still prove problematic. That turned out correct. WIN

Tulane +17.5 over BYU. I thought Tulane could hang with a BYU in a trap game. I did not realize BYU was a legit Top 15 outfit. LOSS.

Tulane -3.5 over McNeese State. McNeese to upset the Wave was a trendy pick even on our own Forums- but the big losses to quality BYU/Tulsa outfits did not necessarily stamp Tulane as horrid. WIN

Tulane +6.5 over Army. Ridiculous to put the Cadets a TD over anyone. Anytime you’re getting more than a FG and you think your team could win outright- take the points and run. Easy pick. WIN

Marshall -3 over Tulane. With two straight wins, Tulane was facing some prosperity. Without much experience in handling success, I figured the Wave could come out flat versus a slightly better Marshall team. Tulane did. WIN

Houston -19 over Tulane: One absolute truism about Tulane football under Coach Toledo is they have no hope whatsoever with hanging with the League’s best teams. Easy pick. WIN

Tulane +21.5 over USM. Found this line ridiculous- USM is simply not as explosive as Houston. Turned out the Wave defense couldn’t stop even mediocre C-USA offenses (see Rice). LOSS

LSU -35 over Tulane. I figured Tulane would score 3. Wrong. WIN

Tulane +7 over UTEP. Just like Army, Tulane could win outright- so the points were just gravy. WIN

Tulane +3 over Rice. I thought both teams were pretty evenly matched- but Tulane had the classy C-USA tailback. Unfortunately, Rice was better in the second half of the season and Andre was only okay- his bleah season continued. Lost the backdoor cover in final seconds. LOSS

Tulane +22 over UCF. Tulane had back-to-back close League games, games in which they had scored 68 total points- which made the 22 seem generous. Instead, Tulane came out and quit. LOSS.

Tulane +17.5 over SMU. Hard to take the Wave after the UCF disaster- but SMU had zero to play for (Bowl game locked in) and some guys on Tulane’s offense had motivation. I figured the Wave would score three times or more. They did. WIN

Season Thoughts-Part 1

Tulane concluded its disappointing even for them 2009 campaign with a much more spirited effort than many expected- but still losing to SMU 26-21. The Wave finished 3-9. I had predicted something like 4-8 (a whole step better than 2008)- but instead Tulane was just a little better, and yet still pretty bad.

Before Frank Helps You Think It All Out lets the season mercifully go, today I wanted to write a little about Toledo offense approach. To get started, a link to the SMU box score is here. Tomorrow I will write about "Twelve Lessons" Toledo learned.

Bottom line, the Wave played pretty well on offense, right? Like the McNeese State game, Tulane committed to get Andre Anderson a goodly number of carries. He put up 105 yards in 27 tries- not great, but not bad. QB Ryan Griffin did what he is supposed to do: 18-26, 216 yards, 2 TDs and 0 interceptions. The Wave managed a snappy six yards a snap- and 345 yards of offense.

Not to be obnoxious, but those are very normal, mundane numbers for a team with 29 minutes TOP allowing 26 points to the other side. Honestly, if you run this offense with decent talent (a quarterback having a good day, minimal turnovers, productive skill player at tailback), this is what you expect. Even if you got a little more out of the running game, another big passing play, Tulane would add another 40-50 yards of offense, 3-7 more points?

To me, that is a problem. Tulane’s offense played “up” in class a notch, gave Toledo a perfectly expected, productive day versus a so-so League defense- and could generate only 21 points?

That simply isn’t enough in this League. If you can’t game plan to score five TDs against good C-USA defenses, let alone poor to average ones, it is trouble.

And I can’t see, even if Tulane had played perfectly within the parameters given to them by Toledo on Saturday, how Tulane can get to that sort of number consistently? Since Bowden’s dethroning of USM circa 1998, thirty rushes is not a consistent recipe for success in this League. Tulane needs to throw more often- get more true spread out there- aim for 350 yards passsing, not 150 yards rushing.

And again, Part 2 tomorrow.

Lastly, this week's BlogPoll:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas
4	Boise State
5	TCU
6	Cincinnati	1
7	Ohio State	1
8	Oregon	2
9	Brigham Young	4
10	Iowa	4
11	LSU	1
12	Penn State	3
13	Miami (Florida)	6
14	Houston	2
15	Oklahoma State	6
16	Virginia Tech	6
17	Oregon State	4
18	Southern Cal	2
19	Utah	2
20	Pittsburgh	9
21	Nebraska
22	Stanford
23	West Virginia
24	Central Michigan	1
25	Troy
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Georgia Tech (#6), Clemson (#18), Temple (#23), Navy (#24).

Chaos

The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Redskins in an utterly chaotic game at the Linc yesterday afternoon. On the blog, I’ve been away from the Eagles for a bit lately. I sort of gave them a pass for last week’s sloppy road win over the Bears. Any road win versus a desperate outfit (the biggest intangible in pro football) is a good win. But this unholy mess from Sunday against a bad, banged up Washington outfit is another matter altogether.

As usual around here, the papers are all killing Andy Reid for the many curious game day choices. For one thing, the game again featured the over-coaching so common from this Reid regime: the on-side kick to start the game, the ongoing Vick follies, the frequent digressions into the “throw every play offense”.

As a result, the Eagles were down eight points in the fourth quarter, just about left for dead. That is, left for dead until veteran wide out Jason Avant came up with two huge courageous catches en route to the tying score.

Who is Jason Avant? Well, he is emblematic of the best thing Reid has done since arriving in Philadelphia: get endless, positive contributions from the 23rd to 45th roster spot.

The Eagles really ought to be sunk. They are missing two of their first three skill people: Curtis and Westbrook. The offensive line has been in flux since day one- only Jamal Jackson can be counted on week to week. McNabb has missed a couple of starts. The linebacker corps is decimated- starting two guys who weren’t even on the team six weeks ago. The safeties are suspect and the corners are a revolving door of health.

Yet they are a sporty 7-4. And that is because they find guys down on the roster who can play every week.

Example: Avant is a back-up, yet veteran, wide-out. Classy, down roster, multi-year veterans are a rarity in a capped League- if you aren’t economizing at the fourth/fifth wide out spot, where are you economizing?

Further: David Akers makes all his kicks. The back-up running back (McCoy), quarterback (Kolb), wide receiver (Maclin), offensive guard (Giles) and offensive tackle (Justice) all can play at a sustainable, even plus, level. Three, maybe four, of those five would start right now for Washington. The Eagles have literally started probably a dozen guys from the second line on the depth chart- and not one was a disaster. Maybe Joe Mays at linebacker- but he was three deep.

So, if we are going to kill the coach for the nonsense Sunday, and there was a lot, perhaps we might also point out the two constants from this regime: consistent deep roster spot contributions and a “keep moving forward” attitude.

Obviously, the road map to the play-offs is a lot easier at 7-4 than 6-5, particularly in light of the fact the Eagles are really a complete mess on the injury front right now- eight, nine starters out now most weeks, major reinforcements probably not coming (some of these back-up are not going to be supplanted) except as the corners heal up. But with a pair of winnable home games left to play- the 49ers and Denver- 10-6 and a play-off game seem increasingly likely.

JP Wins The UFL

JP Losman wins the UFL!

He was knocked out in the first half on a brutal combo hit- but no Tulane fan was surprised to see him come back out there pitching.

JP had an "arrogant" reputation- but the guy also had guts. He has had the pulp beaten out of him at both Buffalo and Tulane- and he keeps moving forward.

Back in July, I wrote the UFL would be good for him- and it will be. He'll be in the League next year.

Let's Get This Over With

Due to the holiday, we’ll get Prediction Thursday over with today. The New York Post puts SMU -17.5 over Tulane this morning. Last year, Tulane was an 18.5 point fave (Tulane did not cover, but did win 34-27)- an astonishing 35.5 point swing you can lay at the door of Coach Toledo, the man “who would teach us how to win”

35.5 points. Sheesh.

It is so frustrating, because this line is indicative of playing out the string. The last two times out, the Mustangs beat Marshall by four and UTEP by three (ed. note: CrazyWave is right- see comments- the Mustangs lost to Marshall by four, but did beat UTEP). Tulane played those two outfits pretty tight- yet they are 17 points ‘dogs here? That isn’t a talent disparity “play”. This big line is a perception that Tulane is a bunch of guys who have quit on the coach, fans and season.

It is a perception that is deserved.

By that, I wish I could sit here and write that this game came down whether Tulane could control nifty RB Shawnbrey McNeal or survive SMU’s brilliant NINE blocked kicks this year. But really, it comes down to whether Tulane feels like playing.

It is frustrating beyond belief. Because, although the chat boards and the players seem to have checked out to off-season concerns, there is a lot to play for here. Just like last week, a fourth win means they were pretty decent and improving, outside of LSU and BYU. But that was true last week too- and we saw how that turned out.

I mean, the quit thing aside, this line is completely stupid. SMU isn’t good; their defense is a wreck. Forget about covering. Putting forth the UTEP-style effort, and Tulane could win this game outright. Had the Wave tried last week, lost a decent effort, this line would be -8.

Again, SMU is terrible on defense- routinely allowing 400+ yards. UTEP and Marshall don’t have offenses better than Tulane’s version- and they both went for 31. Tulane could score 28 here- making -17.5 ridiculous.

But, quitting is hard to unlearn. A blocked kick, a disheartening turnover- and the Toledo fortitude comes to the front. If they were to make a movie called “Tulane Defense”, Bert Lahr would have to be disinterred to star.

I don’t want to pick this game- but the sporting side of me says finish the season. Due to this completely insane line, I’m hoping to steal this game. 17.5 is just so disrespectful- particularly since SMU has nothing to play for. The Mustangs are going to the Hawai’i Bowl no matter what. I just can’t give those points- so I guess I got to take them? I’m hoping that the senior skill position players and Ryan Griffin decide to play- each has something big to prove.

When in doubt this year, I’ve sort of gone with Tulane to cover. And at 7-4 ATS, it has worked out. So I’ll take the Wave. It makes me sick- but what can you do?

BlogPoll

Some quick thoughts on the BlogPoll:

Rank	Team	Delta
1	Florida
2	Alabama
3	Texas
4	Boise State
5	TCU
6	Georgia Tech
7	Cincinnati
8	Ohio State	2
9	Oklahoma State	2
10	Oregon	2
11	Pittsburgh	2
12	LSU	4
13	Brigham Young
14	Iowa
15	Penn State
16	Houston	5
17	Utah	1
18	Clemson
19	Miami (Florida)	1
20	Southern Cal	2
21	Oregon State	4
22	Virginia Tech
23	Temple
24	Navy
25	Central Michigan
Last week's ballot

Dropped Out: Wisconsin (#17), Stanford (#19).

I'm not budging on Florida and Alabama- as I am pretty confident the winner of the SEC Championship game will go on to win the BCS title. In fact, I'm not sure I'd move the loser out of the number two spot.

Penn State stays behind Iowa- they're both at the same level obviously- but Iowa whipped them straight up. I was pretty charitable to the Tigers- I cannot in good conscience actually vote for Ole Miss- but I bet the Rebels would straight up beat most of the teams ranked 15 thru 25- and both Pitt and Cincinnati at a neutral venue.

Temple, Navy and Central Michigan are my salutes to the gritty mid-major programs. I don't know if they could beat, say, Nebraska- but it isn't like Nebraska going to travel, ever, to a place like Central Michigan to find out. Let them get some votes- it isn't like Nebraska is going to be hurting for a few ballots.

Disgrace

This is embarrassing- this display in Florida. I’ve never been ashamed of Tulane- but this effort today... it is hard not to be furious.

I remember those Toledo-nauts belittling the doubters- “Coach Toledo is teaching Tulane how to win”. Remember that ‘nauts!? Well, he sure as heck taught them to quit. Toledo is a joke.

Quitters. Quit on their school, fans, coach and families.

We fans don't quit. We send money, attend repeated ruthless beatings... and this "performance" is the result. Are you kidding me Toledo?

UCF is not 50 points better than Tulane. Period. It takes laying down like dogs to get beat like that by this mediocre C-USA outfit.

Bring On LaSalle

Moving to Tulane basketball, that was a nice winning effort versus the Penn State Nittany Lions yesterday. In hindsight, the openers versus Georgetown and Miami helped. Tulane looked ready for the size they saw- looked a little more "developmentally ahead" than they normally do this early in the season.

My father is a cranky LaSalle alum- a veteran of Philadelphia's Holy Wars between St. Joseph's, Villanova and LaSalle. This is an important match-up for me. Got to get those Explorers- might not have another chance for many decades. I can’t find a morning line though- a clue perhaps to the game's national importance. But if Tulane is going to flirt with 18 wins (I think their is real upside on this team if healthy), this is the sort of game they need to get.

Due to the popular metrics around the Tulane community, the Wave should crush LaSalle. The Explorer gym (Tom Gola Arena) is way worse than ours and they have ZERO money for anything.

Still, the Explorers might get more caring and love from the University President.