Get Rollins Out Of There

David Murphy makes me a little nuts in today’s PDN:

It was difficult not to look at the box score and see the top of the Phillies' lineup, particularly the very top, where Jimmy Rollins ended a four-game benching with an 0-for-5 night that included two strikeouts, two groundouts and a pop-up.

Manuel gave the verbal equivalent of a shrug when asked about Rollins' performance. At this point there isn't much more to say, isn't much more to do except wait for the 2007 National League MVP to emerge from his epic funk.

I realize David is utilizing some hyperbole here- but as Rollins recent mini-vacation proved, the Phillies don’t need to sit around and “wait”.

They have options. Frankly, Jimmy ought to be about fifteen more pathetic at-bats away from being asked to take the Brett Myers road: take one for the team via a little detour to AAA ball to get himself figured out.

Frankly, if Rollin comes out of the gate here and still struggles- all that means is Jimmy again needs to try to play rather than rest in order to get himself straightened out. And the Phillies can’t banish him to the bench or AAA for more than a week because they have zero credible everyday shortstop options. But if there was ever a guy who needed 25 at-bats somewhere else, Jimmy Rollins is it.

He isn’t going to fix it here. Frankly, he’s been declining weekly since his MVP award. Last year, he missed 35 games, hit 11 HRs, hit .277 and an OBP under .350. And this year he is a disaster.

The one good thing about this slump and the team’s recent swoon is that so much can be laid at the feet of the most misbegotten experiment of the last three years: Jimmy Rollins, Lead-Off Hitter. This killer three year experiment is probably, finally, a week from being over- and Rollins can begin his half-decade as a bottom of the order (sixth, seventh) National League hitter. He might actually help there with 11HRs and .277 average- numbers more in line with what the Phillies can expect going forward.

Consensus

I always find this site sort of fun- a compilation of the major preview guides in one place. A lot of love for Ole Miss. Tulane about what is expected. What is the real difference between fourth and sixth in C-USA West anyway? A road win over UAB?

I sort of like Rutgers as my surprise BCS team. They're the best of an indifferent lot in the Big East. They have the worst out of conference schedule I've ever seen: Maryland, Texas Southern, FIU, Howard. I guess no one will play them in New Jersey. You could lose for sure.

With WVU and Pittsburgh at home, I can see them at 11-1, 10-2.... and that is probably good enough to get them into a BCS game.

A Modest Proposal for $10 Million

I honestly do not know what to make of this:

Eyewitness Sports has learned that UNO athletics could be saved and those of Tulane and LSU enhanced after the estate of a solitary, somewhat eccentric, sports-loving oil man is settled.

Logan Wickliffe Cary, Jr., known primarily as "Wick" has left an estate valued in nine figures - some say as much as $150 million.

His will stipulates that one-third of the eventual proceeds from it would go to UNO athletics, one-third to the University of Oklahoma athletics, one-sixth to Tulane athletics, and one-sixth to LSU athletics.

I have no clue how that money will come into to Tulane- or how much will actually show up. But since I don’t believe most tactical solutions (a shiny new building) solve any of Tulane’s strategic problems, I’m a little short of ideas.

The one strategic problem Tulane does have is money, plain old cash flow- so some sort of endowment tabbed to spin off half-a-million, one million dollars a year in working capital might be the best use? I don’t know. I know: pretty modest and unexciting. But it would be a step toward a genuine solution with guaranteed results: a boffo new revenue stream- as opposed to an SMU style white elephant: Gerald Ford Stadium.

Tulane Has Some Work to Do

I follow the Philadelphia Phillies closely, but I don’t know much about college baseball. But I kinda keep in touch with the Wave- and I have watched a lot of the CWS this year- including all of the entertaining, albeit not exactly crisp, LSU-Texas game last night (Phillies were off).

But a little distance might actually help here. Two observations:

First: This idea that Tulane is level with these power programs, but for the absence of a couple of players who went to A-Ball over the Green Wave, is wholly erroneous. This is particularly evident among position players. Like Florida State hammering Tulane in last year’s tournament, these guys hit from one-to-nine: line-ups littered with straight power and gap power. They can go for ten runs even against good college pitching- not just Northern Colorado and Wright State. Of the five tools, these programs seemingly have a dozen hitters who can bring either the “hitting for power” or “hit for average” tool (or both)- at least at the college level. How many does Tulane have?

It seems that one Shooter Hunt can make you a tough out in a tournament setting- but you need hitters in bunches to make you truly dangerous. The relationship between pitching depth versus hitting depth is skewed from MLB. To survive in the major leagues, you need a trio of power bats and eight-nine serviceable arms- in college it seems almost flipped.

Second: This college game is never going to be television friendly if they don’t address the pacing issue. It is so languid at times. You can play a ton of games where a fair over/under is fifteen runs and have the playing time associated with that. But these ridiculous pitch counts, pitchers afraid to challenge the eight hole hitter because even they can go deep or into the gaps, the resultant endless three ball counts and walks....

Streets of Tehran

It is hard to say what is worse or more confusing right now: the Phillies bullpen or the streets of Tehran. Like Iran, the situation has spiraled absolutely out of control this week- and tonight’s Ryan Madson horror is front and center in the Philadelphia angst machine.

The Phillies have taken a substantial step backward. Worse, it isn't so much the step they've taken back, but the nature of the step back: the bullpen. Let’s look at it in context with New York. Two weeks ago, the Phillies were at a clear disadvantage at the top two rotation spots (Santana versus Hamels and Pelfrey versus anyone) and at closer (K-Rod versus the current version of Lidge). This was enough to cover a lot of warts in the Mets everyday line-up and their injury plagued roster- and thus the margin floated around two games.

Well, you can now move the whole ‘pen into the Mets’ clear advantage column, and for the first time, I have serious doubts about the Phillies being able to hold the Mets off. I can’t see how – if this is the 2009 Phillies relief corps- they win National League East.

You can fix the number two rotation spot. An in-season trade for starting pitching help is always there if you’re willing to take an expensive contract or deal quality future assets. The Phillies have those resources. Hamels is in Santana’s class- so you don’t lose much there. But major on the fly bullpen reconstruction is impossible in today’s game. This is the first “impossible to fix externally” problem the Phillies have faced. And when you are forced to rely solely on your own organizational resources, then for the first time a club faces failure. Because if those resources aren’t up to snuff, you fail and can’t escape. So this step backward is different then, say, losing Carlos Delgado- because Carlos can be replaced, the back end of the a 'pen cannot.

Everyone needs relief pitching. Consequently, it is solely an organizational determinant- all that matters is what is on your 40-man roster. You fail if you don’t have it. Heck, a week ago, upon JC Romero’s re-arrival, the Phillies were the closest thing to surplus ‘pen assets in the whole of baseball- and that surplus was guys like Park. Notsomuch now, right?

This season is a failure if Madson and Lidge can’t get back and contribute- so you have to anticipate as if they are. Madson probably needs to be dialed back some- find him some mop up innings to get his head back on right. Plus, it is silly to quit on him. He's just having a few bad weeks in all likelihood. Madson doesn't look hurt- just confused.

Still, in the interim, they need to triage. Who is going well? Romero and Park are your two trustworthy options right now- so they have to close by committee. Spot Romero in the eighth or ninth- wherever the maximum exposure to left-handed hitting is. Park gets the other half. Durbin and Condrey do the rest- and look for a soft spot or two to get Madson going.

You can’t panic with the ‘pen yet (or the rotation). As long as the Phillies are in front, the current championship roster has to get every chance to get itself together. They probably deserve a little better- thanks to Madson- than this one up, seven down stretch they are on. The Phillies just needed some semblance of order in the ‘pen to turn that mark, against some good outfits, into something like even. But there are no fixes except from inside for this burgeoning mess- so they need to fight for time to get these guys sorted out. Romero and Park are the best options for that time- so give them the ball.

Fifth Best in American League East

Yesterday, I was at the Phillies game- and thus had a first hand look at this ongoing wreck of a homestand. The Phillies 1-5 mark this week is only salved by the Mets corresponding lackluster 2-4. The Phillies sharp 7-3 road trip has been largely erased (they are still up two games over the Mets over that duration however). The NL East has done little this week to suggest they are in the class of their American League counterpart.

The Phillies haven’t looked this bad, well, since last year’s run through the American League- when they were dominated by a collection of good and just above even AL outfits. The reasons for these embarrassing marks against the other league are closely tied to their poor home record. Their poor starting pitching, from a matchup standpoint, hurts them “extra” against great to very good offenses and also in this hitter’s ballpark (which moves everyone’s offense up a notch).

You can’t make pitching mistakes, generate poor WHIP figures or allow a ton of homeruns anywhere- but it is a real killer in this ballpark and against this AL clubs with quality hitters top to bottom: Red Sox and Toronto. The Phillies seem to start a ton of games at home down 3-1, 4-0, etc. after the third inning- as their starting pitching gets punished for mistakes and situations that might be a little more escapable against the Braves and Marlins or away from the launchpad at home. These National League attacks seem more balanced their American League counterparts: speed, gap power in the three hole, etc.- where the good AL brings thunder every which way. The Phillies rotation seems more prone to be hurt by the latter. Our offense can cover for a couple of manufactured runs- not multiple early crooked numbers on the linescore.

Speaking of the Jays, I don’t know about you, but that is a good team. Their starting pitching is better than Philadelphia- and they have a lot of professional hitters in that line-up. They knocked around all elements of our pitching- starting and relief. Being third in the loaded AL East is no shame- and after watching the AL East win multiple series versus the Mets and Phillies, it is hard to argue that either Philadelphia (awful starting pitching) or the Mets (injuries everywhere) would be ahead of Toronto or Tampa Bay. And after this week’s ugly result (again, with an eye on the Mets), the Phillies seem to be a step behind Toronto and Boston.

Who Pitches Game 2?

A three game series is a small microcosm of the full 162 game season- so normally one must be guarded, unwilling to pull out lessons based on a single weekend of games. Sure, those games were versus the Red Sox, and as Philadelphia and Boston are a not altogether crazy pick to meet again in- what?- November (ed. note true! true!), the seriesconsequently is prone to overanalysis.

Fortunately, the teams got together and really proved nothing. Both sides blew each other out once- and the only close game late went into the thirteenth inning to decide. The Red Sox got the extra win but not much more. Neither Boston nor Philadelphia made up ground or lost ground to its New York pursuer. Both teams are probably glad not to see the other any more.

The only thing I took out of the series was the obvious. If they are serious, the Phillies need another quality starting pitcher. They might have periods against second division teams and the entire NL East when they can by with Bastardo, Happ and Moyer- but these thumping teams will expose that crew right quick.

I’m a merely modest Cole Hamels’ fan- but the difference between me and most of Philadelphia is that I think he is an average, not great, top of the rotation starter. I'm just not sold on him as one of the top six starting pitchers in baseball- he is somewhrere in the next teir. Regardless, he is still as top, number one starter. From Happ and Moyer you can cobble you .500-ish back of the rotation options. And now the Blanton seems to be getting his act together, he slides into that three spot.

But that number two spot is a mystery. Who would you pitch in a post-season Game 2? This was a season long problem last year too- and we all approached all three Game 2 situations in last year’s play-offs with utter curiosity about what we would get from Brett Myers.

So the Phillies need to get someone in here. As long as they are four games ahead of the New York Mets, they need not panic. They can allow Rollins to kill the club leading off, etc. trying to build success stories for the last fifty regular games and potential post-season.

But they do need to make an addition. First, this team is designed to win now- not 2012- so guys who are destined to play here after next year have to go now to bring someone in here today. I’d like Zach Duke myself; they should have tried to pry him loose on the cheap in the off-season. Second, a four game lead over the Mets, and six over the Braves, feels like a lot- but it isn’t. Yes, the number one thing keeping the Mets around is the dearth of schedule; four games out now projects out to a comfortable ten or so over the season. But it is what it is- the Phillies can bury this out fit right here, right now. An eight game lead means the Mets would need help (i.e. the Phillies would need to play sub-.500 ball for two months). So if an opportunity arises to deliver a kill shot- Philadelphia needs to be aggressive- because four games can be erased right fast. And third, the season still has a hundred games to go- and the Phillies have already exhausted their one in-house option: Happ for Park. They are pitching thin- or rather one rotation problem away form having to panic and overpay. And with this back end rotation crew, they are going to have a pitching crisis.

So if they have to make trade- and now in are a position of moderate strength (don’t need to make a deal now)- the Phillies should look to make it as soon as possible.