I Want To Sell A Golden Eagle

I'm sorry I have been away- but between and Eagles' bye week and a disappointing Tulane loss- it isn't like we missed all that much. Except this sort of thing. You are not helping my mood #5.

Okay. Back to work. The New York Post- the official source of the line for Prediction Thursday- puts USM -6 over Tulane. What does it tell me? Well, for one thing, USM must have problems that belay its 5-4 mark (i.e. quarterback!).

On my road to 7-2 thus far (not to be smug yogwf-ers!), I picked the Wave as a stone lay-up over Mississippi State. I am not saying Tulane is mortal lock here- but doesn’t it feel a little like that game?

This year, Tulane has been able to score at home during the sixty percent of the time that the Green Wave is sort of “with it” on offense. Even if all Tulane can do here is play well on offense for two-and-a-half quarters, they ought to be able to score 24 points.

Now, I’m not saying you’ll get sixty minutes of Ricard and Forte and boys ripping it up. Please, that is just not Tulane- and it definitely isn’t Lester. But like the Mississippi State game, Tulane probably can score a decent number and insist USM to keep up. I can see Tulane playing pretty well for stretches here, get north of three touchdowns, and oblige USM into the neighborhood of thirty-plus to order to cover.

Even with our specials and defense, that is a lot. To score five touchdowns, you have to have a lot of possessions and throw the ball effectively. QB Jeremy Young is probably the worst passing quarterback in C-USA; 1200 yards passing and nine TDs does not get it done in our League.

Worse, USM accordingly will be looking to rush the football at every opportunity- to run the clock out on any “Lester goes for 28 points in a half” type explosion. The Eagles are one of a few teams in C-USA that doesn’t recruit and game plan to score five times to win. Accordingly, the Eagles will be looking to keep the score down- to play a game in the 20s rather than the 30s. An appurtenant strategy, but one which doesn’t help trying to cover a number.

Plus, you know that little mental schedule we all keep in our heads- where we mentally “W” & “L” future contests? You know not a single person in the USM community is carrying this as anything but a “W” underlined five times. Players don’t go to USM to lose to Tulane. Plus, that short week is bad in the NFL- and a killer in college (remember the near disaster against NE Louisiana a few years ago at Gormley?). I can’t believe that USM is dialed in physically or emotionally to bring their “A” effort here.

Last week's game was a shot for Tulane to audition to move out of the bottom quartile of I-A programs. Okay, not too good.

But here is another chance- against a USM team that, this year at least, is in that next quartile up as well. Tulane gets this game- and you can see through to a 5-5 path in the ten games the Wave played on the non-elite level- and for the first time since JP left, optimism toward a winning season for 2007. So there are some stakes here.

And as you can gather from above, this is a spot where Lester plays well for most of the game, Forte is scheduled to go apparently- so Tulane will score.

USM will have to play well for long stretches on offense- something they have not done routinely this year. They are going to have to pass at some point to score a big number- and their quarterback is simply not a good player.

Tulane can win this game. An axiom: if you think you can win the game outright, and you are getting points anyway, take them. I like Tulane- give me the six!- and a decent opportunity to win the game outright.