Can't Beat Rice? Then Watch Out For The Wave!

Well, if you got the holy hell kicked out you by Rice, then you officially stink. Mind you, Tulane ain’t that good either- but at least from a cursory view, Tulane -5 over the Black Knights looks pretty cheap to me.

Last week’s loss to a pretty okay TCU team was cosmetic, Army was down 31-3 at one point, and never threatened. Army’s offense does little consistently but turn the ball over- and David Pevoto is probably the worst passing quarterback in I-A (4 TDs versus 13 INTs- ouch). There is some hope that plebe Carson Williams might see some time, even start, after playing well mopping up last week. But you could also read that similarly to “Anthony Scelfo mopped well against LSU and could help us immediately!”- and derive the same level of proximate hope, if you get my drift. I don’t care what Army fans think: freshman quarterback, first start, on the road, facing pressure, needing to score points... Williams might be better than Pevoto, probably has to be, but it is still not a plus.

Frankly, five is almost disrespectful. Army has no hope of covering Tulane's skill position players. The Cadets don’t have one I-A level defensive back, let alone four. Tulane’s offensive line has quietly been the most improved unit on the team from the first game- and Forte should have a monster day against a defensive front featuring a couple of good I-AA prospects. And we know what Ricard does- protected, safe, unchallenged, in his precious Dome- he goes for five touchdowns and resembles Unitas.

Add in the requisite four turnovers from Army, and the fact that their kickers are worse than ours- and I sense Tulane cruises here. It is just a bad match-up for Army. In this spot, against this defense, Tulane goes for a big number that Army can’t hope to keep up with. If, say, Connecticut outplays Army badly while on offense, they get 30. If Ricard does it, he goes for 49.

I stumbled last week, when Auburn laid down on goal line late, rather than running the score up to the 32 point margin I needed, dropping the record to 5-2 ATS. But I feel good about his one. Tulane wins comfortably- so I’ll give Army five points- and hope Ricard tears ‘em up.