Gingerly

The New York Post puts UTEP -13 over Tulane. Off to a 4-1 start ATS, I feel more than a little reminiscent of the 9-1 mark of 2004. But this game flummoxes me a bit. What exactly are you going to get from UTEP here? They’ve been all over the place. Forget good games and bad games. UTEP can’t string together good quarters and bad quarters.

The quarterback Jordan Palmer is yet another absolutely wonderful specimen of the big number quarterback our League produces. How can a quarterback, in five games, complete over 70% of his passes- and still throw nine interceptions? Hey, this is C-USA, we don’t even blink. That sort of thing happens all the time here. But he’s banged up- and there looks to be a big drop off afterwards.

But he is supposed to go (if he doesn’t start, then there is no pick here). On paper, UTEP can’t run the ball at all- but that is not a relevant stat against our defense. You won’t go broke assuming that a team can rush for a goodly number against the Wave defense.

In order to cover a thirteen point spread, you realistically need to score more than 31- and even then, probably more. The Miners will get near 40-ish if Palmer goes.

Accordingly, you sort of have to pity the Scelfos here- having to game plan to score five touchdowns- just to sort of be in it. One could be heartened by Ricard’s performance against Mississippi State- a road game where he played well for decent stretches. And UTEP has slipped noticeably on defense. The number one bugaboo in C-USA play- the utter exiguousness of quality defensive backs- has come to haunt the Miners with a vengeance.

A Tulane fan put some hope in the Green Wave’s good offensive play centered on a higher tempo, no huddle offense. Certainly it has helped the last two weeks- but I bet that ends abruptly this week. This coaching staff really, really strives to simplify the offense, correctly in my opinion, for Lester in terms of on field execution. Anyone who has watched Lester for three years knows the guy just doesn’t deal well with external on-field demands on his attention. And running the no huddle, etc. gives a quarterback who doesn’t deal with multiple things well one more thing to deal with. The success of this gambit was more due to Rice and SMU’s inability to play I-A defense; I imagine the gimmick factor of no-huddle ends here.

Others would point to SMU hanging with UTEP as evidence that the Wave could too. But SMU, at home, is probably a solid TD fave over Tulane- and UTEP did beat them, so even a similar sort of solid effort leaves Tulane a TD plus in the hole against the Miners.

UTEP is better than Mississippi State, Rice and SMU- and like I wrote above, I imagine they can get the big number required to cover here. Tulane will score- but Ricard still hasn’t really played that circa 2004 UAB or Navy style game on the road against a team that will be in his face- so five Tulane TDs seems like a lot to assume. Paradoxically, since Tulane can be certainly competent on offense at times, UTEP is going to have to keep the pedal down: keep throwing, keep scoring, keep trying. A huge incentive to win by more than thirteen is being cognizant that a two touchdown lead is not safe.

So, I gingerly take the Miners here. The Green Wave won’t get beat like they did in Houston- but UTEP is a clear step better than them, ought to score a big number, and won’t stop trying to score even up fourteen. Take the Miners -13.