Lucy Ponders Auburn

The New York Post- the official line of Prediction Thursday- puts Auburn -31.5 over our Tulane Green Wave. Curiously, the otiose Tigers upstate were -35.5 a month ago- so maybe Tulane is improving? So far five up, one down picking the Wave ATS here on nola- pretty darn good. But we gotta keep up the pace, lest Bob Clarke can us too.

I hate picking these games featuring giant spreads. As I wrote before the LSU tilt: you can’t really apply football based rational to this one; it is a psychology experiment. Auburn can put up pretty much any score they want. Our job is sort of crawl inside Tuberville’s head, navigate thru his extensive knowledge of just how to commit marginal NCAA rule violations, and emerge with the end result coach desires. Seriously people, just what is Tommy's favorite number north of 40? We’ll know Saturday evening, ‘cause that is what Auburn is going for here.

So I am not going to waste time trying to determine what we can do or can stop. Bluntly, Auburn can do whatever they want and Tulane will be able to do nothing.

This is a mathematical exercise really. Against LSU, two Tulane touchdowns meant that those Tigers would have to score more than seven touchdowns to cover. Here the line is a little less munificent- so that is the kind of bet you are making here. If you think Tulane can score more than fourteen- you ought to take the 31.5, screw your courage to the sticking place, and root for the clock.

I doubt it myself. One fluke/garbage time touchdown is probable, two is whimsical. And even if you get seventeen Tulane points- Auburn is quite able to hang 49 up there and break you anyway.

This is not a guaranteed selection. A substantial number of snaps doubtlessly will be young Scelfo/Elliott versus the Tiger’s third defense- a match-up I know nothing about. But Auburn is playing for BCS-style points, they are simply not going to allow Tulane the two fourth quarter scores to make it look respectable on the AP wire. So, I’ll take Auburn -31.5 here to try and get to 6-1 ATS.