Prediction Thursday- Special Blood Rival Edition

Today is Prediction Thursday- our great tradition on “Frank Helps You Think It All Out”- but obviously, due to the circumstances surrounding yesterday’s events, this blog will have to take a series of important, shall we say, itemizations- to ensure its continued relevance and complete, total loyalty.

Because, you guessed it, this morning the Philadelphia Phillies officially lead the chase for the National League Wild Card. Of course, the Phillies effort requires the requisite acknowledgment- just completed- and a resolute commitment to stay informed. To that end, the information is as follows:

With a degree of humility, the Magic Number is 11

11! It almost seems do-able; the glow washes over.

Now, to the business of this site. The New York Post puts LSU -35.5 over Tulane this morning. Sigh, the hook too?- those guys couldn’t have just put up 35? But it is what it is- and I’ll try to run my mark to 3-0 from there.

2-0 is a good start ATS- but the first two Wave games this year were about as easy a pick as you get against the spread. This is the first tilt that is a true conundrum. You can’t really apply football based rational to this one; it is a psychology experiment. If LSU is even semi-engaged, they can probably play “pick a score” here- you know, the line coach is fifty and his daughter is ten- so boys, let’s go get a symbolic 50-10 win.

But if his daughter is sixteen, you get your backdoor cover! It is hard, hard, hard. Who knows what LSU is looking to achieve here: run the 1st team offense for three quarters? exercise the passing game even to the point it means they score 70? Frankly, only El-hrair-rah knows what those Tigers are up to.

If Tulane can get two TDs here- LSU would need to go north of 49 to get the necessary margin. I kinda think that is the bet you’re making here. If you think Tulane can get a respectable point total, say 17-ish, you probably ought to take the 35.5, grit your teeth and watch the clock run.

It is problematic. Barring pure luck or LSU ennui, Tulane probably can’t do anything against LSU’s first-team defensive squads. They simply can’t block this front- so Tulane can’t expect to rush the football or protect Ricard- and we know how that Lester story ends. Doesn’t it feels like that game played with Texas in 2002 where JP Losman wasn’t availed of the opportunity to do anything- so even if the defense had played great, Texas was still going for 50?

I’m not totally in love with this pick, the Wave could get a garbage score or two- the Elliott versus the Tiger’s third team in the fourth quarter match-up is a total mystery to me in terms of players, preparation and desire level. The Tigers are probably not looking to really humiliate the Wave in this spot- working to hang 70 up there. The new clock rules probably will cost LSU a possession in each half- particularly as they run, run, run the ball. And 35.5 to a blood rival is a lot- but maybe the two schools aren’t blood rivals anymore?

You could argue that LSU will be flat, as Tulane is sandwiched between Auburn and the rest of the SEC schedule. But, you know, Tulane is coming off a huge emotional Saturday too, with another huge emotional Saturday coming up. Who ever thought Tulane-LSU would be a “sandwich game” for both teams?

But the Tigers should be engaged mentally- a home game after a trying loss- and Tulane, particularly on defense, just isn’t in their league. I’ll be rooting for Tulane like crazy- but I'm taking the Tigers- and give 35.5