Mr. Bold Increasingly Vindicated

The Eagles start Sunday- which is really great- because the Phillies are officially in trouble. Yesterday, the Phillies gutted out an extra-inning win. That extended their now rapidly extending run of .500 baseball- six wins in their last twelve- to about three weeks.

The Phillies are back, officially, to being a .500 team. Period. Three weeks of .500 ball on top of an entire season of .500 ball equals a .500 team.

The Phillies Wild Card hopes have long hinged on the fact that the play-off award would go to an 83-84 win type club. They have got the necessary collapse from the Reds. If you really want to be honest about it: the Phillies "run" to this Wild Card has been merely playing a bare few games over break even while the Reds collapsed. But, the calendar is winding down- and every day the two game lead the Padres’ hold gets bigger and bigger. It is hard to make up games when in Phillies' style you win one, lose one.

Worse, there is Florida. This blog has held the long-standing view that Florida is the “fourth-best” in the National League. But I was kinda hopeful that the same calendar effect above would sort of work in the Phillies favor trying to hold off the rampaging Marlins.

Just a week or so ago, the Phillies held a three game lead with thirty or so to play. Even a 15-15 mark by the Phils meant the Marlins needed 18-12- six games over- just to tie. True, the Phils have got the .500 mark over the last few weeks- but the Marlins have won eight of ten, the requisite six over, and this morning are tied with the Phillies. Vegas indicates that with Wolf facing Pettitte tonight- and the Marlins running Willis out against the Diamondbacks, that tie will be resolved in favor of the Marlins tonight.

So I think Philadelphia is squarely looking at “done” in the face. They control their destiny some with the Marlins- lots of head-to-head games. But I am not sure that is that great a plus. The Marlins are better than the Phillies right now. Playing Florida probably doesn't help; I'd rather see them tangle with the Mets ten times.

Other news. Mr. Bold took some flack for some places ranking Tennessee ninth and leaving Cal out altogether. That doesn’t look so un-astute this morning, now does it people? Even Rocky Top Talk cheerily acknowledges said thought. Now watch further as Louisville spits the bit three times this year (including once against someone like Boston College), Texas lose next week (thus moving them down to 10-ish)- and thus sweet, sweet vindication. As a voter, one must analyze- not merely regurgitate what one reads on the Cardinal Report.

Tulane hits the board +14 over Houston. No hook- the line has come in some- probably because Houston looked so lousy on defense against Rice. The line seems about right to me. The Cougars are a legit two scores better. The Cougars’ quarterback Kolb tends to beat us around the head a little. Plus, Tulane could play real well here and still lose by seven. But by the same token, Houston probably can't blow us out by multiple TDs.

Still, it is first game for the Wave- so a bit of a mystery. I think the Cougars win- but that is a whole lot of points for a team that squeaked by the Owls. Very nervy pick either way.