2006 Eagles Forecast

Eagles' cheerleader Alyssa is ready! Are you?

I spent most of the off season pretty pessimistic about the Eagles. Man- but weren’t there an absolute myriad of real bad problems last year? Three were outright huge: quarterback- clearly fix-able, defensive line and wide receiver- infinitely more problematic. Linebacker (outside of Trotter of course) and the offensive line were not exactly strengths either. That seemed a whole lot to fix in one off-season- and add a division where the other three teams increasingly appeared to be getting their act together- it looked to be problematic to get over .500. Accordingly, I was hooked on seven-eight wins.

But, let’s face it, unlike last year- this year seems off to a “good” start- and Dallas has to deal with TO and Washington can't do anything. Camp has been helpful, friendly to the Eagles. They drafted, by all accounts, excellently for once- adding impact on the defense front and depth to the most worrisome position on offense: tackle. An undoubtedly sharp pre-season, a healthy quarterback, some young players looking sharp, a shrewd camp addition of a very quality wide out- and they are emerging as a chic play-off pick more (ten wins here) and more (Super Bowl).

While the offense is still a work in progress, it almost has to be better. The franchise quarterback is the cornerstone of success in the NFL- you either have one, are grooming one or searching for one. Fortunately, the Eagles have Exhibit A in Donovan McNabb. He is no Tom Brady- but he is a perennial Pro-Bowler that gives them a chance in every game and every season. And I love him. But when you have a top quarterback- a lot has to go wrong before you are out of a play-off spot.

Lord, but the Eagles try though. I am probably the only person in Philadelphia that is not enamored with Westbrook. Look, he does many good things- and can torment defenses with match-up problems from hell. But he also forces you- because he realistically can't handle 20+ touches week after week- to have a quality second back- which the Eagles simply do not have.

The offensive line on paper seems adequate- but on second thought; it isn't, is it? The tackles define aging and slow. The first game against the Falcons last year was an ill omen- watching the Falcons send waves of fleet pass rushers to the perimeter that beat the Eagles’ tackles to the engagement points again and again. They did draft the USC tackle Winston Justice- and he looks ready to play. Unfortunately he’ll probably have to: throw the raw rookie out there when William Thomas inevitably breaks down for the umpteenth time. The interior line has been solidified by Shawn Andrews- who will be a Pro-Bowler for the next decade- and the addition by subtraction defections of Fraley- who managed to play here for seemingly a generation by being “cheap against the cap”. But outside of Andrews, there are no pluses in this group- and downside in the OTs can’t stay healthy- which I imagine they can’t.

But- now that the wide receiver corps is up from utter disaster to okay- there should be enough here that the Eagles’ can resurrect "the mostly effective until real crunch time pre-TO offense". And I imagine that is what they’ll get- production and points- a certain competence that McNabb and Akers create that available points will be gotten more often than not – until some real crunch time Sunday afternoon in December or January.

The defense absolutely could not rush the passer last year- and they drafted and spent the big money here. Howard and Kearse probably have to be better producing perimeter pressure- but there is still little push up the middle. There is more depth and youth too- and you can’t go wrong in the NFL introducing those things to your defensive front.

Unfortunately, the 'backers are a disaster. Dhani Jones is the worst regular linebacker in the NFC East; he can't tackle, cover, run support, rush the passer. He is cheap- largely because he can't play. Matt McCoy couldn’t even get activated last year- now he starts? Trotter is superb- a run stopper and a motor- but this group can’t cover me- a real drawback in a division loaded with backs and tight ends that absolutely need covering.

The defensive secondary should be fine- and the kicking game- Dirk and David- are outstanding.

So, the Eagles ought to be better- no unit is worse (although some problems aren’t fixed: linebacker, offensive line), the quarterback is back, the pass rush almost has to be better. They drafted well two years in a row- so some of these young nucleus players figure to have positive, contributing impacts this year. And the pre-season suggested the old bloodless, free from beating yourself, eagles are back.

And that gets you a long way in Our League- the refusal to beat yourself. There are too many holes for an outright renaissance- but the schedule probably means they get to 5-3 at the bye. So they’ll be in the hunt. I’m going to say nine wins- maybe even ten if the quarterback is healthy. I won’t try and predict the divisional tie-breaker at ten wins- but I imagine Philadelphia make the play-offs- as I think nine will do it in the NFC in 2006.

To wit:

1. New York Giants 10-6
2. Philadelphia Eagles/Dallas Cowboys 9-7
4. Washington Redskins 7-9