Prediction Thursday

First prediction Thursday of the year!

A little history is obviously thus in order: a 7-3 mark in 2003, a 9-1 mark in 2004 (both against the spread)- but I slipped to 5-5 in 2005. No better than guessing last year! Never could get a good handle on the ’05 edition of Tulane. I took Tulane a few times early, after the impressive SMU showing, before I realized Tulane was not capable of that supreme effort week after week.

Perhaps as a real visible sign of the woes of Tulane football the past year, in 2005 Houston was a mere one point favorite over Tulane. The Wave still got beat pretty soundly- handled for the second time in a row. Vegas seems wary to bet against a third straight multiple score decision. Consequently, the New York Post- the official line of Prediction Thursday- puts the Houston Cougars an even two touchdowns over the Tulane Green Wave.

I sorta like Houston the football team. They are the perfect emblem of the sort of mixture our League wants and actually gets from C-USA football: fun & good quarterback play, big points and clever offensive game plans- all in front of snoozing crowds numbering 15,000 or so.

Right up front, I hate this game for Tulane. If you want an early season upset, you could make a very cognizant, fair argument that the Green Wave can beat Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are totally one dimensional on offense (can’t pass a lick). So although they can hang an awful rushing total on Tulane, they probably can’t score enough to get the thirty points required to put the game totally out of reach of Tulane’s offense: you know, should Ricard totally go off for some reason or other.

But not Houston. Kolb is one slick dude- a near perfect touchdown making machine (three TDs/0 INTs against Rice) in a League that absolutely rewards touchdown makers by presenting defenses like Tulane’s. Houston played offense for two quarters against Rice- and still scored 31 points. Now they are at home, with a game under their belt- and ought to come out focused after the near disaster against the Owls. Being honest, the Cougars really ought to score five, six times, with near 450 yards of offense.

On offense, everything Houston can do- turn their big yardage totals into points and ball control- Ricard has singularly been unable to do, on the road, against even poor defenses. Like last year, I imagine Houston is pretty mediocre on defense- but Ricard could do nothing consistent against them: 12-of-32 passing for 117 yards. Tulane ran the ball okay- I imagine Forte will again- but Tulane can’t manage to keep Kolb off the field, and score enough points, if Ricard completes the expected 45-50% of his balls with a fumble and an interception in the red zone.

Worse, look at this article:

"It was a tale of two halves," Tulane coach Chris Scelfo said. "The difference in the game today was that they made some big plays and we didn't. I thought we played a clean football game, pretty mistake free. You have to give them credit. We ran the ball well and we were hoping to continue to run the ball and then we dropped behind and we had to try to create the big play. We just weren't able to do that."

I kinda agree with Scelfo. Outside of the quarterback, Tulane really did not play all that badly in that spot. Weren't we kinda encouraged by the game?- that Tulane put an effort out there that would beat the Marshalls and Rices of C-USA. And yet, Tulane still got beaten pretty handily.

So, I am not optimistic. I can see easily see the Wave playing spirited, as well as they can- and still getting handled. After the near Rice debacle, Houston probably is not getting snuck up on here. And while we are sorting out our first game offensive issues, coupled with another erratic performance from the quarterback- Houston gets a bunch of scores Tulane can’t match. So I’ll take Houston- give the 14 to Tulane- and hope for the best.