Thursday, September 25, 2008

I Kinda Like the Mustangs Here

This is gonna have to be quick- as a market bailout is due here momentarily.

Look, Tulane should absolutely hammer SMU in this spot. The Mustangs are awful, largely uncompetitive in I-A play so far. At the very least, Tulane has been damned competitive on defense- which has covered for horrendous special teams and an up and down offense/quarterback. But really, this one should be over somewhere in the second half.

The only question is can you swallow the price. The New York Post puts the Wave up -18.5.

There is a fair question: should a team with no real definitive plus C-USA offensive skill players be favored over anyone by three-ish scores?

You would think not. But the Mustangs couldn’t hang at all with TCU (down twenty at the half) or Texas Tech (down 43-0 at one point). Tulane probably isn’t as good as either of those teams- so SMU's opener at Rice is probably more indicative.

Well, they stayed with Rice for a quarter (although Rice features that real scary Chase Clement at quarterback)- and that is about it.

I dunno- all three of their bad beat downs featured teams absolutely designed to score a bunch on them- and that isn’t Tulane yet. Our defense probably keeps them at a real manageable number- south of 17- but Tulane probably needs something like 40 to cover here, and I’m not sure they possess that sort of consistency yet.

I liked Tulane earlier in the week- but now, I feel less confident. It is a big mountain. Sure, the Wave wins easily by two scores- but now that is not enough to get the new and improved -18.5. I’ll give the Mustangs the points- confident the Wave will win.

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