2007 Tulane Football Preview

Avert your eyes people! It is the 2007 Tulane Football Preview.

A few weeks ago, glowing with hope and expectation, I entered the Barnes & Noble and leafed through a multitude of pre-season guides projecting Tulane in C-USA: twelfth, twelfth, eleventh, twelfth. Ugh, I get it.

But to me, picking Tulane dead last feels merely like an easy pick- a little lazy. Surely, they are not going to be good. But dead last in C-USA is an utter disaster, right?

Last year- coming off the 2005 season, which featured Hurricane Katrina and a 2-win campaign, Tulane was a trendy pick for further disaster. But as the season played out, while the Green Wave was certainly not "good", Tulane was a pretty clear step above awful. They won four games. They beat an SEC team on the road. Okay, it was Mississippi State- but MSU did not schedule Tulane thinking they could lose that game. Tulane whipped a Rice outfit having a "once in a generation" good season. Likewise, the Wave won a pair of games over real bad teams- which further confirms Tulane was probably not real bad themselves.

Take out the two true sacrificial games on the 2006 schedule (at Auburn, at LSU)- and Tulane was 4-6 in the competitive part of their schedule. Not too bad- say, more than enough to elevate them off a list of the worst quarter of teams in I-A.

On offense, Tulane will go as the quarterback goes. There is enough at the skill position to be more than competitive in C-USA. TB Matt Forte and WR Jeremy Williams should provide above average veteran skill position play in a league that rewards featuring players capable of cartoon-like numbers on offense when things are gong right. At the very least, the line ought not be overwhelmed facing the bottom half of the schedule. But the quarterback position simply doesn’t project strength- at least from week one- with redshirt junior Scott Elliot (13-30-132, 1 INT, 0TD) seemingly holding off a myriad of challengers. Unfortunately for Tulane, it is one of those competitions driven by a lack of established options instead of a plethora: a nice mix of complete unknowns and raw recruits.

The defense features eight returning starters, including two of the best on the defensive line (DE Antonio Harris and DT Frank Morton)- but that might not exactly be a positive. All those returning starters also means that the same cast that could not stop anyone last year is merely back for another try. All in, Tulane conceded an astonishing 400 points. Eight teams scored 30 or more. Frankly, the Green Wave defense could allow 100 points fewer- and still be terrible. They do figure to be improved- but probably not enough to really matter. New coach Toledo will still have to game plan to score four/five touchdowns- just to be sort of be in it.

So, on the vaguest canvas, the defense figures to be a little better. Tulane gets players up front back, and I can't imagine the `backers being any worse. The offense figures a little worse- the quarterback might only give the team three/four productive games versus six. But Forte gives them a credible rushing attack most Saturdays.

Figure then the Green Wave could be right around a similar level again this year- and that level just isn't dead last in C-USA. They could sneak up and surprise someone decent in their League, win a couple against the real bad teams on the schedule. Further replace Auburn with a home I-AA game, and I just don't think a one-, two-win disaster is in the cards. It feels a little better than that- I think 3.5 wins would be a fair over/under.

You can see my projection here too. A small discussion of my projection on a Tulane chat board is here.