Who On Earth is Doak Walker?

The Doak Walker finalist list is out- and young Matt Forte did not make the list. It is disappointing. I mean, if this campaign isn't enough to get a mid-major player on the list, what is? Rushing for 2500 yards?

If "winning" is so important for MVP style awards- these other three characters all play for three of the most disappointing teams in the country this year. Michigan wins eight games no matter who plays TB there. We don't win any- let alone four- without Forte.

Also, the season isn't over. What if Forte goes for 300 yet again this weekend- picks up a third “national” style player of the week award- leads Tulane to a big conference upset and a fifth win on a club most pundits picked to win two at best? Longshot of course- but not a crazy one. No Pirate fan would pass out from surprise.

Okay, McFadden, Hart and Rice are all superior unreal players. Period. There is no lay-up argument to replace one with Forte.

But these awards break "ties" in favor of power leagues and past resumes. Yes, all three of these guys were superior players last year as well; Forte was a semi-plus C-USA back who missed games. I am not arguing that any of these three guys ought not be on the list- but since college football intelegensia can't break the habit of breaking ties blindly via assessing past accomplishments and participation in a BCS League- just simply stop. Voters ought to be given all the options. Forte isn’t the best running back in the college- but he is arguably the most valuable. And I do wish we had some sort of clue of just what a mid-major player needs to do to get considered: rush for 3000 yards? what if Matt actually levitated through force of will and flew for fifty TDs? would that then be enough?

Of course, NFL teams could care less what the press and college hanger-ons thinks of these guys as college players- so it isn't costing Matt anything. At this point, Matt is all about the combines and all-star games. The LSU game aside, he's a "competition" risk- so he's going to have to prove he can run, lift, practice, play etc. like and with the power league guys. If I were him, I'd be breaking in my track shoes for the 40 now.

Get On The Heisman Train

Meet the nation's #1 rusher!

Bob Toledo- Welcome to Football at Tulane.

Sigh... here we go again. Bob Toledo- Welcome to football at Tulane!

Well, any loss is disappointing- even to Tulane fans inured, maybe even habituated, to this sort of thing. But as I wrote in my preview below, even if you had Tulane at seven-eight wins, this is one you probably had in the “probable loss” bucket. For Tulane, this season really isn’t about September. Short of losing to Southeastern, the goal is to survive until the Army game, win it, and take dead aim on the seven conference games that conclude the slate. This loss does little to change that.

As to the game itself, I don’t understand the unhappiness with young Scott Elliott from some circles. Mississippi State may be a bad football team- but their defense is not the reason. There are enough athletes over there to be a solid, middle of the road, I-A defense (and Tulane won’t see that but four times this year)- a defense that further really controlled teams like Mississippi, Alabama- and semi-controlled Arkansas, the latter half of last year.

In his first start, the quarterback completed 58% of his passes (good). He generated 200 yards in a mere 27 snaps (very good). If he averages but one pick per 26 throws all season, well, who wouldn’t sign for that now? And he only took one sack!- which you know has been a real problem around here for like, well, forever.

Yes, he didn’t throw the ball downfield effectively- but one thing at a time. Frankly, due to Forte’s day, how many down-and-distance situations did the quarterback really have to hazard shots downfield? With a rookie qb, I doubt coach wanted him looking down the field against the nickel/dime all the time at 3rd and 10? Tulane wants him looking at 2nd and 4 without all those extra DBs gamboling around- more favorable situations for success. And that wasn’t Tulane Saturday.

Bottom line, if he completes 60% of his passes with one turnover/one sack against, say Rice and Army, he is doing more than enough to help this team win as a first year quarterback. Frankly, Lester didn’t do that, do enough to help the team win say eight Saturdays, as a senior!

Matt Forte. Look, I don’t today want to rehash whether Forte is an elite C-USA player (ed.- he’s not!). And Matt simply isn’t a fumbler- so he’ll get that cleaned up. I think, however, we can all agree our worst play can’t be the one where Tulane “hands the football to Matt”. As to the offensive line- well, I will gently point out that Tulane allowed one sack, and averaged around seven yards a snap when Matt was not handed said ball (which is pretty darn good)- so someone was blocking and executing pretty well against a competent I-A defense. I know the “o” tailed off measurably in the second half- but that was more a function of indifferent/poor field position, not having the ball much, and playing from behind.

With Elliot not taking sacks, completing passes, protecting the ball, I was heartened to see the coach let the kid play. Who would have thought we’d have more passes than rushes? Wasn’t it a little fun to watch the kid grow a little, take his lumps and keep chucking? Letting the kid play now will pay dividends in the second half of the season. If Scott keeps completing 60% of his balls- work in some modest downfield success- and keep protecting the ball- teams won’t be able to play us one dimensional for long.

Lastly, and seriously, didn’t the punter look like he had real promise? Good leg, smooth.

2007 Tulane Football Preview

Avert your eyes people! It is the 2007 Tulane Football Preview.

A few weeks ago, glowing with hope and expectation, I entered the Barnes & Noble and leafed through a multitude of pre-season guides projecting Tulane in C-USA: twelfth, twelfth, eleventh, twelfth. Ugh, I get it.

But to me, picking Tulane dead last feels merely like an easy pick- a little lazy. Surely, they are not going to be good. But dead last in C-USA is an utter disaster, right?

Last year- coming off the 2005 season, which featured Hurricane Katrina and a 2-win campaign, Tulane was a trendy pick for further disaster. But as the season played out, while the Green Wave was certainly not "good", Tulane was a pretty clear step above awful. They won four games. They beat an SEC team on the road. Okay, it was Mississippi State- but MSU did not schedule Tulane thinking they could lose that game. Tulane whipped a Rice outfit having a "once in a generation" good season. Likewise, the Wave won a pair of games over real bad teams- which further confirms Tulane was probably not real bad themselves.

Take out the two true sacrificial games on the 2006 schedule (at Auburn, at LSU)- and Tulane was 4-6 in the competitive part of their schedule. Not too bad- say, more than enough to elevate them off a list of the worst quarter of teams in I-A.

On offense, Tulane will go as the quarterback goes. There is enough at the skill position to be more than competitive in C-USA. TB Matt Forte and WR Jeremy Williams should provide above average veteran skill position play in a league that rewards featuring players capable of cartoon-like numbers on offense when things are gong right. At the very least, the line ought not be overwhelmed facing the bottom half of the schedule. But the quarterback position simply doesn’t project strength- at least from week one- with redshirt junior Scott Elliot (13-30-132, 1 INT, 0TD) seemingly holding off a myriad of challengers. Unfortunately for Tulane, it is one of those competitions driven by a lack of established options instead of a plethora: a nice mix of complete unknowns and raw recruits.

The defense features eight returning starters, including two of the best on the defensive line (DE Antonio Harris and DT Frank Morton)- but that might not exactly be a positive. All those returning starters also means that the same cast that could not stop anyone last year is merely back for another try. All in, Tulane conceded an astonishing 400 points. Eight teams scored 30 or more. Frankly, the Green Wave defense could allow 100 points fewer- and still be terrible. They do figure to be improved- but probably not enough to really matter. New coach Toledo will still have to game plan to score four/five touchdowns- just to be sort of be in it.

So, on the vaguest canvas, the defense figures to be a little better. Tulane gets players up front back, and I can't imagine the `backers being any worse. The offense figures a little worse- the quarterback might only give the team three/four productive games versus six. But Forte gives them a credible rushing attack most Saturdays.

Figure then the Green Wave could be right around a similar level again this year- and that level just isn't dead last in C-USA. They could sneak up and surprise someone decent in their League, win a couple against the real bad teams on the schedule. Further replace Auburn with a home I-AA game, and I just don't think a one-, two-win disaster is in the cards. It feels a little better than that- I think 3.5 wins would be a fair over/under.

You can see my projection here too. A small discussion of my projection on a Tulane chat board is here.