A Switch For Switch Sake

After last night's loss to Memphis, I am forced to rely on an old canard: Time for a quarterback change!

First- can we agree that the Scelfo experiment just needs to end? No bitterness or rancor. Just please stop. I’m not saying it was a failure- or not worth trying- but it is time for it to terminate. Another 100 throws from this guy is simply not necessary to evaluate his potential going forward. Raise your hand if you are not 100% certain what we have in young Scelfo. Obviously his intangible “fire” was a nice boost to rally the troops versus LSU- but diminishing returns are kicking in. Scelfo isn’t really translating much in terms of actual production- a real problem in this League

I don’t want to take the red-shirt off anyone- so I vote for Elliott. And if you want to continue to sub in Moore- a guy who, unlike Scelfo, would benefit going forward from a few dozen throws while seeing the elephant; I’m cool with that.

Look, it is imperfect- and you could successfully argue Elliott deserved to lose his starting nod after the Lions’ mess. But...

He’s the one guy on the roster you know, for certain, can point to anything in his past that proves he can play C-USA football at a plus level. In 2005, he blew up Rice for 300 yards/3 TDs- and was okay in spot duty elsewhere. Some his later starts were shaky- but Tulane just couldn’t block those teams- not Scott's fault.

And he wasn’t that bad against MSU- completing something like 55+% of his balls. And now that Forte has been established as a real C-USA style threat- something not true after MSU/Houston, I think it might be a little “easier” for Scott to play. If Tulane could just get 225 yards out of the passing game, we’d be a whole lot better. And I think Scott can do that more often than not.

And isn't like Tulane is trying to develop Scelfo- taking snaps away from him at this point isn't hurting his progress. And if you aren't trying to mature the qb position- if you are trying to merely win games now- well, let's give Scott a try against conference competition.

Also, Tulane has real questions at qb for next year. Next year, Tulane has a hot RS Frosh- but you know, that isn’t a done deal. Let’s find out what we have in the RS junior Elliot once and for all. We know Scelfo, let’s know Elliot- before next year. If he’s a bust, then we know the qb has to come from the kid or Moore.

Let Scott Chuck It

Over the next few games, I want Scott Elliott to get some chances to play quarterback.

Now, Scott wasn’t good against Southeastern- lost his starting role fair and square. And I think Anthony Scelfo did a very commendable job. He played a physically courageous game versus LSU- and a pretty heady one too, protecting the ball.

But the Army game showed the limitations of the “all Scelfo, all the time” approach. To wit: how do you turn 200 yards of rushing, plus an entire day versus a bad Cadet defense, into a mere 17 points?

I think the answer kinda starts with the quarterback.

Look, the quality C-USA quarterback is a big number generating guy. It is a League that for all its faults scores points in bunches- and Scelfo is sort of mis-cast in that role.

It isn’t that he can’t play quarterback- if you wanted a heady, protect the ball kind of guy, he could well be worth a look. But that 22-for-37 for 300 yards and 3TDs performance- the performance that gets you to the four-five TDs you need to be in a lot of C-USA games- that just isn’t Scelfo. Thus, Tulane can play well on offense but generate too few points- and thus still be a single play away from trouble all afternoon long.

Now, we’ve seen that 22-for-37 for 300 yards and 3TDs performance though. That was Elliot’s line against Rice.

It might have been a fluke- but these recent tests against Houston and MSU were a lot harder than Scelfo’s Army one. Anyway, we’ve seen enough of Scelfo to know he’s a sort of a charismatic holding action at best- and Tulane could learn something good about Scott if they find away to let him get a series or two against some of these more “shaky” league opponents.

Bob Toledo- Welcome to Football at Tulane.

Sigh... here we go again. Bob Toledo- Welcome to football at Tulane!

Well, any loss is disappointing- even to Tulane fans inured, maybe even habituated, to this sort of thing. But as I wrote in my preview below, even if you had Tulane at seven-eight wins, this is one you probably had in the “probable loss” bucket. For Tulane, this season really isn’t about September. Short of losing to Southeastern, the goal is to survive until the Army game, win it, and take dead aim on the seven conference games that conclude the slate. This loss does little to change that.

As to the game itself, I don’t understand the unhappiness with young Scott Elliott from some circles. Mississippi State may be a bad football team- but their defense is not the reason. There are enough athletes over there to be a solid, middle of the road, I-A defense (and Tulane won’t see that but four times this year)- a defense that further really controlled teams like Mississippi, Alabama- and semi-controlled Arkansas, the latter half of last year.

In his first start, the quarterback completed 58% of his passes (good). He generated 200 yards in a mere 27 snaps (very good). If he averages but one pick per 26 throws all season, well, who wouldn’t sign for that now? And he only took one sack!- which you know has been a real problem around here for like, well, forever.

Yes, he didn’t throw the ball downfield effectively- but one thing at a time. Frankly, due to Forte’s day, how many down-and-distance situations did the quarterback really have to hazard shots downfield? With a rookie qb, I doubt coach wanted him looking down the field against the nickel/dime all the time at 3rd and 10? Tulane wants him looking at 2nd and 4 without all those extra DBs gamboling around- more favorable situations for success. And that wasn’t Tulane Saturday.

Bottom line, if he completes 60% of his passes with one turnover/one sack against, say Rice and Army, he is doing more than enough to help this team win as a first year quarterback. Frankly, Lester didn’t do that, do enough to help the team win say eight Saturdays, as a senior!

Matt Forte. Look, I don’t today want to rehash whether Forte is an elite C-USA player (ed.- he’s not!). And Matt simply isn’t a fumbler- so he’ll get that cleaned up. I think, however, we can all agree our worst play can’t be the one where Tulane “hands the football to Matt”. As to the offensive line- well, I will gently point out that Tulane allowed one sack, and averaged around seven yards a snap when Matt was not handed said ball (which is pretty darn good)- so someone was blocking and executing pretty well against a competent I-A defense. I know the “o” tailed off measurably in the second half- but that was more a function of indifferent/poor field position, not having the ball much, and playing from behind.

With Elliot not taking sacks, completing passes, protecting the ball, I was heartened to see the coach let the kid play. Who would have thought we’d have more passes than rushes? Wasn’t it a little fun to watch the kid grow a little, take his lumps and keep chucking? Letting the kid play now will pay dividends in the second half of the season. If Scott keeps completing 60% of his balls- work in some modest downfield success- and keep protecting the ball- teams won’t be able to play us one dimensional for long.

Lastly, and seriously, didn’t the punter look like he had real promise? Good leg, smooth.

2007 Tulane Football Preview

Avert your eyes people! It is the 2007 Tulane Football Preview.

A few weeks ago, glowing with hope and expectation, I entered the Barnes & Noble and leafed through a multitude of pre-season guides projecting Tulane in C-USA: twelfth, twelfth, eleventh, twelfth. Ugh, I get it.

But to me, picking Tulane dead last feels merely like an easy pick- a little lazy. Surely, they are not going to be good. But dead last in C-USA is an utter disaster, right?

Last year- coming off the 2005 season, which featured Hurricane Katrina and a 2-win campaign, Tulane was a trendy pick for further disaster. But as the season played out, while the Green Wave was certainly not "good", Tulane was a pretty clear step above awful. They won four games. They beat an SEC team on the road. Okay, it was Mississippi State- but MSU did not schedule Tulane thinking they could lose that game. Tulane whipped a Rice outfit having a "once in a generation" good season. Likewise, the Wave won a pair of games over real bad teams- which further confirms Tulane was probably not real bad themselves.

Take out the two true sacrificial games on the 2006 schedule (at Auburn, at LSU)- and Tulane was 4-6 in the competitive part of their schedule. Not too bad- say, more than enough to elevate them off a list of the worst quarter of teams in I-A.

On offense, Tulane will go as the quarterback goes. There is enough at the skill position to be more than competitive in C-USA. TB Matt Forte and WR Jeremy Williams should provide above average veteran skill position play in a league that rewards featuring players capable of cartoon-like numbers on offense when things are gong right. At the very least, the line ought not be overwhelmed facing the bottom half of the schedule. But the quarterback position simply doesn’t project strength- at least from week one- with redshirt junior Scott Elliot (13-30-132, 1 INT, 0TD) seemingly holding off a myriad of challengers. Unfortunately for Tulane, it is one of those competitions driven by a lack of established options instead of a plethora: a nice mix of complete unknowns and raw recruits.

The defense features eight returning starters, including two of the best on the defensive line (DE Antonio Harris and DT Frank Morton)- but that might not exactly be a positive. All those returning starters also means that the same cast that could not stop anyone last year is merely back for another try. All in, Tulane conceded an astonishing 400 points. Eight teams scored 30 or more. Frankly, the Green Wave defense could allow 100 points fewer- and still be terrible. They do figure to be improved- but probably not enough to really matter. New coach Toledo will still have to game plan to score four/five touchdowns- just to be sort of be in it.

So, on the vaguest canvas, the defense figures to be a little better. Tulane gets players up front back, and I can't imagine the `backers being any worse. The offense figures a little worse- the quarterback might only give the team three/four productive games versus six. But Forte gives them a credible rushing attack most Saturdays.

Figure then the Green Wave could be right around a similar level again this year- and that level just isn't dead last in C-USA. They could sneak up and surprise someone decent in their League, win a couple against the real bad teams on the schedule. Further replace Auburn with a home I-AA game, and I just don't think a one-, two-win disaster is in the cards. It feels a little better than that- I think 3.5 wins would be a fair over/under.

You can see my projection here too. A small discussion of my projection on a Tulane chat board is here.