Golden Knights

Well, after Punting Monday and Scelfo Tuesday, Prediction Thursday loses a little of its luster this week. The New York Post- as well as the Golden Nugget in Vegas- have taken this game right off the board. With no one sure which quarterback or what running back on either team will play and for how much, no one wants to put a number up there. So I’m stuck at 7-3 ATS- after totally missing the game against USM.

To me, this game sort of harkens back to the Mississippi State game- which was the stone lay up of the year. Going in, Mississippi State was clearly terrible- while the Wave looked horrible against Houston. Consequently, terrible (the Bulldogs) was an eleven point favorite over horrible (the Wave). But we also knew Houston was designed to make Tulane look about as bad as they could be, that there was hope the Wave was merely terrible- and "terrible versus terrible" was not only a more like characterization of that match up but also that big number for MSU was misguided and unwarranted. Tulane = easy cover.

Same thing this week. Both UCF and Tulane are pretty bad- and there is no reason to believe UCF won’t be pretty bad again this week. It took a miracle performance from Steven Moffett, the senior quarterback, to beat Memphis by a mere two points. They stink.

Now, Tulane ain’t good either- so I imagine under normal circumstances you have to like them at home- particularly after getting just blown out. Terrible versus terrible, take the home squad, right? Plus, UCF doesn’t travel well at all- and you'd have to pick Tulane, even pay the field goal maybe.

I wonder though- I wonder if after last week Tulane has regressed back to horrible? Forte is the most overrated player in recent Tulane history- but he normally plays well against these outfits featuring a half-dozen guys playing regularly on defense who might not start at Tennessee-Martin (like Army for example). So he’ll be missed.

Ricard faces some real duress, some pressure this weekend, as he’ll have to “do it all himself”- a week after he failed spectacularly in a similar “have to do it all” spot. And we all know how Ricard responds to angst and vexations: head-shaking turnovers! Frankly, Tulane has got to score- as the defense probably cannot keep UCF in the teens. Throw in a special teams' disaster...

Against any other team in the country, I’d say the Wave is dead meat here. But UCF has really, really slipped since Marshall in early October. The quarterback is back- but they are battling injuries like crazy on defense and at running back. Tulane is healthier and at home. Any kind of day from Ricard, and I mean any kind, and the Wave scores 30 points here.

They’ll try for the seniors; and something tells me they get this one. At 7-3, maybe I get a free pick, and I’ll use it to take Tulane straight up to win the game.