Time to Panic

Well, I know I am panicking.

Last week, I wrote I thought the Phillies were a little worse than the consensus- and would scuffle to finish a few games over .500. In retrospect, that frankly might have been a pretty jolly projection.

It is too early to make any definitive observations about the pitching- and anyway, no one projected the staff and bullpen to help this team week after week. Pitching was always going to be something this club suffered through- filled with longing for a nice surprise or two.

I more worried about the offense. I have never really bought into the Phils as a burgeoning offensive monster. Lately, Jimmy Rollins might be a very good, surprisingly consistent “hitter”. But to be a very good, surprisingly consistent lead-off asset, you gotta get on base somewhere around 40% of your at bats- and Rollins for his career is around 33% (34% last year). Jimmy hasn’t shown the plate discipline required to add 35 more walks to his season totals to get there. And realistically, he probably isn’t a .310 –style hitter. Rollins candidly is probably never going to be a very good lead-off hitter.

There is no true number two hitter, or at least Manuel has not found anyone to do the required things there. And the bottom three line-up spots are an utter black hole- further crippled by the fact the Phillies seem to be determined to get David Bell 450 at bats even if it kills them.

A 7-13 start would go a long way to burying a team with this pitching staff. To go from six under to six over .500 means a month-plus of playing great- and the Phillies pitching almost ensures they can't possibly play consistently great for six weeks. Worse, to even manage a 7-13 start means this club has to sort out some big problems all while playing near .500 ball. Problematic.