70118?

70118? A New Orleans zip code? Or a conservative estimate as to the number of rushing yards Tulane will allow this year? And does the picture to the left not remind you went it all started going wrong?

The Times-Picayune is reporting that Christian Ducré, from Fountainbleau High School, has left the team- along with Ace Foyil (a nice linebacking prospect the Wave would have loved to have played this year) and Matt Slocum (a semi-servicable C-USA defensive linemen).

Ducré departure hurts the most. He was electric in practice last year- and Tulane’s other backfield options are problematical. I have really no clue why he couldn't get on the field in real games last year.

The tailback position was a real problem for Tulane all last year. Entering the season, the Green Wave had two upperclassmen penciled ahead of the true freshman- and they consequently red-shirted Ducré. It got to be a little crazy quickly- when the top two tailbacks did nothing week after week, behind a more-than-decent offensive line, against the pitiful rush defenses that populate C-USA. But Scelfo was determined not to take the red-shirt off the kid- and the Wave never had a decent tailback all season.

I always thought that was pretty dumb. Red-shirting TBs isn't as important as red-shirting linemen. Linemen grow and develop; red-shirting a skill position player only makes sense if you have no playing time for him. And again, Tulane’s TB situation was a disaster last year- so Ducré could have helped. No way he could have been worse than what we did get out of that spot.

Worse, I really was, in the back of my head, carrying tailback as a "plus" C-USA position for the Wave this year- the nice surprise of the team- due to Ducré. And now the two young players with the most potential are gone: Ducre and Ace.

Wide reciever now is the only position on the field that the Wave can "project" to be better than average for C-USA. Where else? The back seven on defense candidly project as uncompetitive. The defensive line, if everything works out, might be okay. Forte and Ricard were candidly not good last year. The o-line has some players- but again a lot has to work out right here- and there is zero depth & little experience. Same thing with TE.

If Ricard doesn't get real better real fast- or the back-up blossom- this has 1-win, 2-win disaster written all over it.

But three points:

1. Having Rice, Army and SMU all having to come to New Orleans really helps this from becoming an utter disaster. All three figure to be horrid- and horrid teams don't travel well. The Wave ought to able to get two of those- which means just one or two more wins keeps the season from utter disaster.

They can't beat LSU or Auburn no matter what. But 3-7 in the competitive games is bad- not a disaster.

2. It really doesn't take much to play .500 in our league. Just one or two nice surprises- either line being competitive for example, or upsetting Marhsall/sweeping the first three home games- and they could be 4-4 in league play.

3. And, you know, Ricard was at times a very, very, very effective quarterback in 2004. What if he gives them four 2004 UAB/Navy starts and five 2004 Army starts? Okay, he showed nothing in 2005- but you could hope if you wanted.

I still think three wins right now- win two of three of the Army, Rice, SMU collective- and steal another somewhere. But with any kind of improvement or great quarterback play- any!- they could sweep that "group of three losers" and steal two.