2006 Phillies- The Slog to 84!

Well, the Phillies followed a hopeful Grapefruit League season by promptly getting smacked around by the Cardinals today. Over early, you wonder if Leiber got the message that pitchers are ahead are hitters at this point. I know, I know, it is one game. And Jimmy Rollins got his hit.

While the Phillies are a staggering consensus to finish third in National League East- a forecast I solidly agree with- there is optimism. Bill Conlin has got them as the Wild Card. And the best Phillies’ blog out there- PhilliesNation- has them winning the division.

I don’t see it myself. Okay, this is not a bad Phillies team. They have won eighty or more games five (six?) years in a row- and I imagine they will again. But since Pat Gillick arrived, everything he does screams 2007. The Phillies simply are not going to try to force things to contend this year- like the Mets will. They’ll be content to be hopeful that their young players develop smartly, that some the inscrutable veterans either rally or have outstanding years, and reposition the organizational deck chairs some. Let Gillick make his own judgments on who is worth keeping, what is growing down on the farm, and where to allocate the dollars he saved this year.

The Phillies entered the off-season determined to clear eight figures from their bloated pay-roll of 2005- and not add to the bad contracts they have to eat. You can make a sensible argument for the departures of Thome, Padilla, Wagner, Urbina and Lofton- for example is $15 million plus for the back end of your bullpen really the best investment going?- but it isn’t like the Phillies went crazy sinking that money back into the on-field product or that some of those guys couldn't contribute.

The 2006 starting pitching isn’t all that bad. Leiber and Lidle are dependable- and no one would be surprised if Myers had a true breakout year. But expecting all three to be healthy, make thirty five starts and win fourteen or so? I don’t believe it. Moving Madison to the rotation is a mistake. I doubt he’ll be effective over a whole season- and what effectiveness he will have will fall dramatically after National League hitters get more than one look at him.

Worse, it really hurts the bullpen. Basically, the Phillies made this trade: their all-star closer (Wagner), a pretty solid set up guy (Urbina) and a very good, innings eating middle reliever (Madison) for Gordon, Rhodes and- at best- mediocre starting candidate Madison (in his new role). Maybe they had to do it- and it is totally defensible if “win now” isn’t your main goal. But it is hard to argue the bullpen is anywhere near as mediocre to decent-plus as it was in August and September last year.

So the pitching isn’t exciting. Hard to see two guys leaping out to win 34 games combined in the rotation- and I bet at least eight different guys get to call themselves starting pitchers for the Phillies this year. It isn’t encouraging.

Obviously, they should score. The first six bats in the line-up are well designed to play in Citizens- but they probably don’t get on base or situationally hit well enough to be consistent run producers on the road. Bell & Leiberthal are two increasingly shot players with horrendous contracts- a real black hole at the bottom of the order- that brings a real nice combination of “they can’t hit” coupled with “they play a lot”.

Again, the Phillies aren’t bad. They seem to try & care for Manuel. But they have some bad contract commitments to everyday players that realistically aren't going to get better. I don’t think anyone seriously can look at this roster’s problems at catcher and third base- combine it with multiple mysteries and holes in the pitching- and seriously get 94 wins. Even some of their "strengths" are sort of unproven. Utley and Howard are nice young players- but would you be honestly surprised to see their numbers fall a bit? Rollins had a spectacular finish- but he has months and months of stupid at-bats as well. Burrell defines enigma. Leiber could realistically make fifteen starts next year. It would be a miracle if Wolf does. And so forth

The division is fortunate for the Phillies- as the Marlins and Nationals are horrid. That’ll boost the total from last year- even if the Phillies aren’t as good on paper as 2004. The Braves and Mets have issues too. There is enough, if they get some pitching from unexpected sources and some of the conundrums shake out in their favor, to win 85+ games and hang around. Every year teams package health, some surprises and a little luck into a nice run. The Phils have enough pieces to be that team. And again, they aren't bad. But it would be more luck than rational expectation. I say 84 wins.