Let's Get Ready To Obstruct!

Your name is Kerry Fraser. You were born in 1952 in Sarnia, Ontario- and tonight, you officiate around your 250th NHL play-off game. It is Game Six in Philadelphia. The Flyers- down a game to Buffalo- fight savagely- clinging to a one goal lead with twelve minutes to play. Suddenly Chris Drury lunges out of his own end with the puck, flanked by the graceful and lethally quick Maxim Afinogenow- who looks hungrily at the lumbering Mike Rathje backpedaling to his blue line. Afinogenow wheels sharply at the Flyers zone- leaving Rathje a step behind- and Drury adroitly slips the puck toward him. The Flyers defensemen reaches out with a glove, costing Maxim half-a-stride- and the puck slides harmlessly into the corner…

You are Kerry Fraser- what do you do? Do you put your arm in the air- or is the puck promptly retrieved by a back-checking winger, banked off the boards and floated safely to center ice?

That answer goes a long way to answering the question who carries this Buffalo-Philadelphia series. On paper, the Flyers got some real problems here. I saw one website prognosticator give the edge to Buffalo everywhere: up front, the blue line, goalie, specials, coaching, etc.

And yes, the Flyers have the two best forwards- Gagne and Forsberg- but Buffalo has more good, quick ones. Those quick Buffalo forwards are right out of central casting in terms of tormenting the Flyers slow defense: Rathje (hurt), Hatcher (immobile) and Gauthier. Desjardins is steady- but Meyer and Pitkanen are going to have to play too. And relying on your fifth and sixth defensemen to have to contribute is normally a road to failure in big spots. The goalie match-up is a wash, at best, for Philadelphia. Miller’s been great- but Esche has played pretty well recently.

Buffalo plays great special teams; the Flyers are indifferent to horrid.

And yet, the series line is pretty “even”; Buffalo a slight fave mainly because of the extra home game. And the “why?” is Kerry Fraser and his peers. If this series is officiated like a series of regular season games, I imagine the power play differential, coupled with that extra home game being ultimately determinant.

But we know from the old NHL that big, strong defensemen can absolutely neutralize fast skill players if allowed to obstruct players off the puck. And my gut feeling is, with both games and series both at 3-2, Fraser is gonna be loathe to put guys in the box for away from the puck nonsense. You simply won’t see a dozen power plays a night.

Accordingly, the Flyers have a chance. They’ll get Forsberg about as healthy as he’ll ever be- and I bet he has at least one round to give them. It helps Philadelphia to start on the road too; they’ll play relaxed- get the needed game out there- and get the series squared 2-2 after returning to Philadelphia. And the tone of the series will change over those last three games- maybe not the "anything goes" wars that used to characterize the East- but enough liberalities will be permitted to turn these skilled Buffalo wingers into a shell of their former selves. Flyers win in seven.