Sweet Serenity

As I wrote last week, I am “oddly serene” about the Eagles this season- and I remain so despite last night’s 17-10 loss to the Washington Redskins. Again, I think that, once you make the same leap I did after the Atlanta game, after watching McNabb play hurt, that this Eagles team and their semi-broken quarterback are right now at best a ten/eleven win team, the ups and downs of the season become easier to bear.

Rarely does a team cruise to a conference title like the Eagles did last year. This team is like the previous editions under Reid- they have to work and get lucky and stay healthy to get to 11. And even 11-win teams lose five.

Accordingly, we have all seen enough NFL games to put this game squarely in the proper bucket: a .500 team bouncing, back at home from a loss, wins this game against a solid division foe a lot more often than they lose it. Consequently, it was a typical division game- a few plays here, a few plays there.

For example, both Philadelphia kickers are huge road pluses, both are hurt, both replacements were big factors- as the Eagles lost the special team’s battle to Washington for the first time in recent memory. The Redskins fumbled only like a thousand times- but lost only one . They got one score on a pass interference penalty on a ball overthrown so badly that it could never have been caught by a guy who wasn’t even open to begin with- but hey, it happens. I don’t know if Lewis caught the ball at the goal line- but to heck with the replay- catch the ball dummy. #5 missed the tying score late by three inches. Philadelphia left a field goal on the field. But you know, what are you going to do? Division games, particularly on the road, are like that.

I still don’t think Washington is very good. With five wins now, they’ll be a border line play-off team until Christmas- but probably can’t make it as second in NFC East is probably beyond them. Nevertheless, the “up from horrible” Redskins should still win five or six home games- so again, they are going to hold serve against a good team more often than not.

Conversely, the Eagles are still on at least a ten-win pace until they lose two home games- and they haven’t lost even one yet. They play four of their next five at home. Before anyone throws in the towel- let’s see how they do in these four home games. Would you honestly be shocked if they were 8-5 in a month? I refuse to believe they aren’t good until they lose two at the Linc. Last night wasn’t a total wash either: the quarterback looked a little more spunky, the defense competed again- particularly against the run, the draft pick Reggie Brown had a big pulse, the interior offensive line played pretty well.

That is not to say there aren’t problems. To win the division, Philadelphia probably needs to sweep the Giants- and this conglomeration cannot do that right now. The Giants’ 6-2 start really puts the bar at 11 wins to get this division- and looking at the schedule the only way the Giants don’t get eleven or the Eagles have even a shot is the aforementioned sweep.