A Navy? Without Boats?

I imagine as long as the Republicans hold power in Washington, the USA will feature some sort of Navy. Consequently, the USNA is next up for Tulane.

The New York Post puts Navy football -12.5 over Tulane today- which feels like a pretty fair line. Navy is clearly no great shakes- and it is a ton of points to give- but Tulane is more than a little lost on offense and utterly horrendous on special teams. The Tulane defense usually does come to play and competes- but let’s face it- the Wave ain’t likely to stop anyone cold right now.

I utterly loved Tulane in this spot last year. Loved them. Tulane was at home, they seemed likely to protect Ricard (put him in the Yellow Submarine) and Navy had no hope of covering our collection of outstanding wide outs. I thought Tulane would easily score enough to cover the big spread. And of course, Tulane scored an absolute ton, the defense played its best game of the year- and Tulane produced their most complete win of the 2004 campaign.

That being said, even in the beginning of the year, to hoots of derision on here, I had this game squarely in the “loss” bucket. And in light of Tulane’s recent struggles, I see little reason to move it out. I certainly see no clue they are about to pitch "their most complete effort of the season". Plus, everything I liked about last year’s game- the familiar surroundings, the comfortable quarterback, the oodles of talented experienced skill people outside- they are all gone.

But 12.5 is a whole lotta points. I hate giving that many- which has led me to foolishly take the Wave and the points the last two weeks- because we all know Ricard is very capable of throwing for four touchdowns against this secondary.

Yes, Navy’s recent home performance against Kent State at home doesn’t look that good. However, it is Homecoming at Navy- and they got blown out by Tulane last year- so I can’t imagine Navy will be flat or unready or unemotional. So we are forced to look for excuses or reasons why the Wave might keep it close. There is the aforementioned Ricard explosion. The Wave defense ought to keep navy south of 35 points at the very least- and if you can’t count on scoring 30+, well, it is hard to guarantee you’ll cover 12.5

Tulane is probably better than their 2-5 mark. And they've played okay in spots. But this is going to be a hard place to get well. I imagine Navy will dialed in and ramped up- and the Wave will still be lost for long stretches on offense. Throw in the typical brutal special teams play(s)- and I can’t see Tulane even being in this in the fourth quarter. So I’ll take Navy and give the 12.5— just not a good spot for a team searching more than a little bit for good things to happen