Steady Boys!

Starting in November, every game in the National Football League is critical. And there is no doubt about it- the Eagles probably face the make-or-break portion of their schedule over the next three weeks: three straight division games, against resurgent to semi-resurgent divisional foes, with two on the road. And for the first time in a long time, these games have a little juice to them- some real downside for losing. The Eagles probably need two here.

I know the panic meter is off the charts in some places- but I have been oddly serene. I get my rest. I chew my cud. Okay now, last year’s 12-0 record in the NFC, the key factor in the 13-1 start, had a lot to do with a very solid Eagles football club. But it also had a lot to do with the pitiful state of the NFC- where the Eagles were literally two scores or more better than all their immediate NFC rivals (Carolina, Atlanta, Green Bay), three scores better than their divisional challengers (New York & Dallas) and four scores better than Washington.

So even standing in place, the Eagles were probably never going to win 13-14 games in 2005. The "NFC gap" just isn’t as big- if it even exists. The franchise quarterback is perceptibly hurt. So the Eagles are like everyone else that is play-off capable again- and regular season success is consequently 11-12 wins.

And 11-12 win teams lose games on the coast. They lose road games to divisional rivals. They struggle to play consistent & well week after week when playing five hard road games in eight outings. None of their losses- @ Atlanta, @ Dallas and @ Denver- are unexpected or even terrible. Even if you had the Eagles 12-4 on paper- those are three you probably penciled in a potential “L”.

Anyway, I know I did pre-season. I thought it would be hard for the Eagles to better a 5-3 mark at the turn. So they are on track.

But those three Philadelphia losses make these next three important games. Their schedule really softens the last six- they really ought to win five there if the quarterback is still standing. But now, they probably need two of the next three

The Eagles are clearly an uneven football team right now. To Frank, the NFL is all about finding a formula- a game plan- that you can reproduce more often than not. And the new Eagles have yet to square that circle. For years, the Eagles ultimately have been able to rely on a mobile, heady McNabb to punish defenses at a high level for mistakes in coverage or containment- with little corresponding downside: incompletions, turnovers. But with McNabb limited, the Eagles have not yet found the right mix for offensive efficiency.

For example, pleading with the Eagles to run the ball more than fifteen times a game in 2004 was dumb. Outside of Westbrook’s big-play ability, nothing Westbrook or Levens could provide justified steadily taking ten snaps out of McNabb’s hands to hand the football more to either one more. Yes, the Eagles were 31st in rushing. And yes, if it meant taking the ball out of McNabb’s hands ten times a game to get to 25th- well, I pass.

But this year, the mix needs to change. And the Eagles haven’t figured it out yet.

The defense- well, I still think they’re more like the crew the stifled the Chiefs and Chargers and Falcons- than the group that got hammered by Dallas and Denver. The defensive line has slipped- but that is the salary cap. Good teams lose good players. I never care about the run- if you feature a back that goes 30-for-120- then you’re messing up- and ought to be throwing more. But the Eagles have been bad against the pass? They have good defensive secondary players though- I’m confident that group will return to form. But the pressure is a problem.

So- keep your eyes on the prize. Get to 6-4- stay a game back of the NFC leaders- and use that soft late schedule to get the bye and home game.