Thursday, June 16, 2005

Vegas Adores the Wave

If you go to:

and page down a bit, you’ll find the Las Vegas casinos’ odds on the College World Series.

For Saturday, Tulane seems to be a consensus 4 to 5 or so over OSU (ie. bet 60 to win 50)- but it moves. And Tulane and Nebraska seem co-favorites to win the whole thing.

Since I thoroughly think the pending game is a complete and utter toss up- the fact that Tulane is the narrowest of faves seems fair. You probably have to expect to give up a tick to get the consensus number one team in the country starting a pitcher coming off an impressive 3-hit shut out of a Rice team. A Rice team, I think all Tulane fans will admit, was hugely underrated entering the tournament.

I am a little shocked that Tulane is about 7 to 2 to win the whole thing- considering the nature of baseball, over a short time frame, tends to even out discrepancies. Over a one game span it is impossible to figure out who is the better club. And it does not improve much over four, five games. It seems to me everyone ought to be around 8 to 1.

Frankly, I am not sure Tulane would be a great wager at that 7 to 2 level even to win the next two in a row. Figure a 60% chance to win each of the next two- that is 36% to sweep two straight*. Okay, it is still an underlay (for just the first two games)- figuring 7 to 2 would indicate about a 29% chance to advance- but again, we are talking merely through two games.

If you factor in the fact there is probably a lack of simple partisan money on Tulane in comparison with the other seven programs, this suggests the wise guys have lots of confidence in Tulane’s ability to win this thing.

Some interesting lines on the US Open as well. For you fight fans, there is an outright steal on the board- take the prop bet Johnson/Tarver to go the distance.

Lastly, in other news, this blog got a nice shout out from Pelican Post:

Click on the link and page down to the entry entitled “This is the Stuff American Soldiers Are Made Of…” Thanks!

* Probability of two independent trials with 60% chance of occurring: (60% x 60%) = 36% Seriously, if you went to LSU do not dispute the math or technique. It is a waste of both of our times.