Comfort for Tulane Fans

Now just for a moment- think about how old you are? Subtract that number from 82- let’s call the result “x”- and correspondingly, you have in actuarial terms roughly “x” years left to live. And so then be comforted, that in those “x” years, you’ll likely never see a more sickening hour of Tulane athletics.

This Tulane class has played in two College World Series- and exited both times in an utter horror show. This is perhaps a good time to prompt one another that one principal reason these guys are at Tulane, as opposed to AAA-Richmond, is that sometimes the routine, the monotonous, is still hard.

I still maintain that each individual game is not indicative of a team as a whole- but regardless, blowing that kind of lead even once is not an acceptable paradigm of a championship team. I thought Tulane was in trouble by the mid-innings, when the game shifted into, really, the most languid of affairs. Crowel slowed way down, the team lost intensity and focus- particularly at the plate. All it took was one bad error by the shortstop, almost inevitable given the pace and tenor of the game, to open the floodgates. Tulane never got back the concentration- and played defensive and scared over the last eight outs.

There were individual stories as well. It is unfortunate the top two hitters in the line-up currently cannot hit. Southard is in a slump; he’s off-balance- lunging, and making poor decisions. Eamus has hit some sort of freshman wall and has not been good really in weeks. Latham inconveniently choose last night to hit the wall too; the guy’s fastball was topping out at 82-83 mph- which is not competitive in Division I.

To me, in this CWS, Tulane just looked tired: the long season defending the number one ranking, a Cal State-Fullerton series that played like the CWS, rallying from their indifferent start in conference play, and the very tough Rice Super Regional. Couple this effort with my season-long pet-peeve, Jones' never-ending dependence on the same group of six core guys to do just about everything, and it all finally caught up with Tulane. I bet we all wish now Bogusevic, Latham, Eamus and Southard had maybe watched seven or so more games throughout this season, right?

Ultimately, the tournament left me with two thoughts about the 2005 Tulane Green Wave. First, once Bogusevic ceased to be an effectual member of the rotation, Tulane stopped being an elite tournament baseball team. Sure, they were still better than this year’s tier-two programs like LSU and Alabama. However, Tulane no longer featured the day after day after day rotation constancy to compete with Texas and such. Looking back, in the Super Regional, what was the real difference between Tulane and Rice? Owings really- and that is about it. Really, Rice was not a serious national title contender. And without an effective Bogey, neither ultimately was Tulane.

Second, while pitching stats seem to carry over, awesome offensive numbers generated in C-USA are completely suspect until validated. Out of the league and bad local schools, when did Tulane really hit? A little against Alabama. Not at all against Rice. Not much against the Titans. If you count yesterday’s second inning- one inning in the CWS? Owings and Bogusevic- Holland maybe- and that is about it. I wonder if Tulane’s wonder sticks were really largely just a creation of facing Billiken, Tiger and Cardinals’ pitching.

Since the hitting was suspect, to be charitable, in the post-season, pressure came down relentlessly on pitchers Owings, Bogusevic, Latham & Crowel- and then to play good defense behind them. In the end, the pitching buckled. Too many innings and too many appearances for Latham and Bogusevic.

Be honest. On paper right now- today- without a strong Bogey and a newly suspect line-up, this team is categorically not one of the top five teams in the country. It simply is not as strong as it was a month ago. It peaked too early- played and asked too much from the key guys in March and April. Accordingly, the club as constructed- at this instant- probably over-achieved a bit to get to the CWS and win. Had you told me prior to the tournament that Bogey would be continually ineffective and the Wave simply would not hit much, I am not sure I would have predicted Tulane would make it to Omaha.

So it is what it is. A great club that peaked a month ago- and drug too many tired players about two weeks too far. My only complaint: I wish they had been able to bow out more gracefully. They deserved better. But no season that ends in Omaha is ultimately a disappointment.

Wait ‘til next year.

Beavers Are Turtles in a Big Spot

Okay, you are not going to get me to talk too much trash about the Beaver team Tulane played yesterday. Well, other than Pat Casey- who I will get to in a minute. Even in my Rolling Rock induced haze, I could tell that Beaver team came exactly as advertised: guts, team speed and baseball savvy. I am convinced my original sentiment is correct- that any real difference between these teams would take a couple dozen games to extract. Game to game, day to day, each affair would be close to a toss-up. Frankly, that was about as well as Tulane can pitch, play defense and hit- particularly against a quality I-A starter pitching, not throwing, a great game- featuring an ability to throw three quality pitches for strikes. That cutter was lethal yesterday- spotted well and thrown repeatedly for strikes in tough counts.

What were the real differences between the teams yesterday? I can only really point to two that meant anything. First, Tulane brings some better power numbers to the non-core line-up spots: Southard and crew are probably more likely to get a home run from outside the 3-4-5 line-up spots than OSU. Second, when it came to the sticks, Tulane clearly had better options coming off the bench yesterday- and OSU paid a price for it. But that is it. I guess you could add Lathan was on out of the bullpen and OSU can again, flat out run.

Candidly, the difference yesterday was almost entirely Tulane’s two-out, "lots of guys on base shot to the alley" was about twelve inches better placed than OSU’s similar effort a couple of innings prior. The only snotty thing I have to say about that is I hope the Oregon papers manage to spell the name of Tulane’s talented RF correctly in today’s editions.

And since I absolutely believe OSU team could emerge to play the Wave again, I am leaving that game analysis stand as is. Tulane was better yesterday- and that is all.

Now to the umpiring- which is getting some attention this morning in the papers. My job here is to help you “think it all out”- so please permit me. I totally understand it is hard to argue you ought to have won a baseball game when the true productive total of your offense output for an entire day is a first inning infield single and a double off the end of the bat. So you need a scapegoat- and the umps have been serving that role for about 100 years.

Accordingly, the hoopla around Owings sliding into second base is a little ridiculous. The infielder in question was not affected: he made a quality throw, on target and without a hitch. Plus, any fan knows that call absolutely cannot be made in a championship game. I don't believe for a minute that Owings' contact was incidental- but it was not consequential either. Now those are big words for Oregon people, but they do summarize the issue perfectly. And to the umpire’s credit, they dismissed Casey’s idiocy about as quickly as possible.

Perhaps I have been de-sensitized to violence: living in Manhattan and watching SEC football. But if that is what passes for dirty play in Oregon, then no offense, but you’all are a bunch of fairies and elves. Now I know why the Marines get fewer recruits per capita out of Oregon than any state in the nation.

This entire nonsense is a perfect example of that notorious Pacific Northwest blue-state sentiment. The sort of behavior born out of a culture that encourages boys to play soccer (honestly, I’d rather have my children take up smoking), leagues where everyone gets a trophy and women actually coach young boys. I always supposed there was a reason why Oregon did not produce any SEC talent, but I always thought it was more geographic distance. I would gently recommend toughening up a bit- or get used to loser’s brackets.

Seriously, can you imagine, say Smoke coming out his dugout at the Box to ask for an interference call in that spot. He’d be embarrassed. “For crying out loud”, even LSU fans would say, “rub some dirt on it." Please Oregon, at the very least don’t cry; it makes you sound French.

The second umpiring point has more validity. Owings did establish the one pitch he could throw again and again was the outside fastball- and once he established the pitch, Dini kept moving further and further outside. Some of the ball-and-strike calls were almost comical. Had I been an OSU fan, I know I would have been barking too.

This is actually one time playing in a league that is not a traditional power league helped Tulane. Any fan of C-USA knows that are league is packed to the gills with suspect officiating and umpiring- particularly compared to the traditional southern power leagues. No Tulane fan watches the ACC men’s basketball tournament without marveling at the officials not having to confer eight times per game. To Dini and Ownings' great credit, they kept throwing it out there.

And accordingly: Shame. Shame on this so-called baseball genius Pat Casey. Of all the actors yesterday, the Beavers’ coach is the only one who deserved an unabashed “F”. I was singularly unimpressed. This OSU team made zero adjustments at the plate all day long to deal with the outside strike. Wasn’t Casey paying attention? Or was he concentrating on identifying key “dirty plays”? One of the beauties of baseball is the fact they have played it for decades- and you know Coach Pat, there are endless changes and adjustments to hitting approaches to compensate for an expanded strike zone away.

You can modify your stance, go the other way with the fastball away, swing early in the count and so forth. It appears either Pat elected to merely sit there, sulk and ignore the palpable problem- or his players could not internalize the changes he demanded. Either way, shame on Pat. He failed his kids yesterday in a big way. He ought to be ashamed.

Vegas Adores the Wave

If you go to:

http://www.donbest.com/odds-other.htm

and page down a bit, you’ll find the Las Vegas casinos’ odds on the College World Series.

For Saturday, Tulane seems to be a consensus 4 to 5 or so over OSU (ie. bet 60 to win 50)- but it moves. And Tulane and Nebraska seem co-favorites to win the whole thing.

Since I thoroughly think the pending game is a complete and utter toss up- the fact that Tulane is the narrowest of faves seems fair. You probably have to expect to give up a tick to get the consensus number one team in the country starting a pitcher coming off an impressive 3-hit shut out of a Rice team. A Rice team, I think all Tulane fans will admit, was hugely underrated entering the tournament.

I am a little shocked that Tulane is about 7 to 2 to win the whole thing- considering the nature of baseball, over a short time frame, tends to even out discrepancies. Over a one game span it is impossible to figure out who is the better club. And it does not improve much over four, five games. It seems to me everyone ought to be around 8 to 1.

Frankly, I am not sure Tulane would be a great wager at that 7 to 2 level even to win the next two in a row. Figure a 60% chance to win each of the next two- that is 36% to sweep two straight*. Okay, it is still an underlay (for just the first two games)- figuring 7 to 2 would indicate about a 29% chance to advance- but again, we are talking merely through two games.

If you factor in the fact there is probably a lack of simple partisan money on Tulane in comparison with the other seven programs, this suggests the wise guys have lots of confidence in Tulane’s ability to win this thing.

Some interesting lines on the US Open as well. For you fight fans, there is an outright steal on the board- take the prop bet Johnson/Tarver to go the distance.

Lastly, in other news, this blog got a nice shout out from Pelican Post:

http://pelicanpost.blogspot.com/

Click on the link and page down to the entry entitled “This is the Stuff American Soldiers Are Made Of…” Thanks!



* Probability of two independent trials with 60% chance of occurring: (60% x 60%) = 36% Seriously, if you went to LSU do not dispute the math or technique. It is a waste of both of our times.

Beavers!

Is Tulane gonna win this thing or not?

Clues can be found here- a rather curious blog. I stole the picture above from there:

http://www.oregonlive.com/weblogs/beaversblog/

The author does take the time to slur the Green Wave though- which I appreciate:

It appears that they have 4 strong starting pitchers in the forms of Brian Bogusevic (13-2, 3.14), Micah Owings (11-4, 3.38), Brandon Gomes (8-2, 4.45), and J.R. Crowel (10-1, 5.00). Owings should be equally feared at the plate where he is batting .354 with 18 homeruns and 63 RBI's. Looking over these stats is a clear indication that Tulane is not lacking in the power department... Their name isn't all that intimidating however.

Like "Beaver" is? Lord. Now, it isn’t exactly bulletin board material- but as we know, I get annoyed quickly.

Anyway, my devotional this morning was Proverbs 27:1- which was a little sobering.

Do not boast about tomorrow, for you do not know what a day may bring forth.

Still, don't you get this feeling that OSU, messing around with this Tulane and LHP nonsense, rather than just simply running the #1 guy out there, is being a little naive? You absolutely do not want to disrespect the Wave in this spot. They can hang a crooked number on you real quick. Ask Rice’s Degerman. He pitched great- he is a MLB drafted player. Even so, the Wave was able to keep him in constant trouble- so a little dribbler could beat him.

Anyway, that bit of news was very heartening. I like the idea of OSU already setting up their rotation for the rest of the week.

Cute Forum here too- lacks the acid of our beloved Tulane one. A plus is that your user ID and password work here too:

http://www.oregonlive.com/forums/beaversbaseball/