Philadelphia Is Going To The Super Bowl

On the surface, it is a hard game.

The Cardinals- for all their faults- are very good in their own building. The Eagles are looking at their fourth road game in five- all played to the highest of stakes- and this is a long haul. While the defense is surprisingly healthy, the offense has real questions at tackle and Westbrook looks increasingly worn.

Yet Vegas puts the Eagles up as a road favorite: Philadelphia -4 over Arizona. That is a lot in the professional game considering Arizona is a winning team at home.

The answer is, of course, the Eagles are better. Not Florida over Tulane better- but for two play-off teams, the Eagles have some separation here. They have a much better defense. They have better special teams. They can block Arizona; I don’t know if Arizona can block them. Put it this way, move this game to Philadelphia, and the Eagles probably are close to minus nine-ish in this spot.

I don’t think Arizona is a bad team. This is simply a bad spot for them. In order to step up in class, play over their nine regular season win head, they need teams that don’t bring good pressure in the passing game- then make some mistakes on offense, artificially move the “okay-plus” Arizona defense up to “good”, getting themselves off the field a couple of extra times through no exact merit of their own. They won the last two games largely by forcing a zillion turnovers and passing for touchdowns. And that just isn’t what they are going to be able to Sunday.

To the first point, Kurt Warner is utterly immobile. Philadelphia may have to commit some extra guys- but they are going to get there consistently. The Eagles don’t respect the run much on the best days- even if you’re going for north of 100- and they aren’t going to respect it here either. Foremost, the Eagles are going to get after- and then get to- the old, slow man that directs this offense from under center. A related second point is that for two months now, no one throws on the Eagles in the red zone at all. This superior defensive secondary allows the Eagles to play real condensed fronts inside the red zone- and. I’m real doubtful the Cardinals “rejuvenated rushing attack” is going to succeed near the goal line.

Plus, Philadelphia is not going to be Atlanta or Carolina in this spot. The Eagles play the tightest road game in the NFC; there isn’t going to be that stream of endless turnovers and field position that allowed Arizona to open up the playbook.

I’ve chronicled the utter roll I’m on picking the Eagles: ten out the last thirteen ATS. I’m pretty confident here too. People talk about how balanced Arizona is- but the Giants were balanced too, with a much better defense, and the Eagles handled them twice in a row. Here, Philadelphia is going to handle an Arizona team that isn’t in the current champions class by two scores- so I’ll give Arizona the four.

Philadelphia Manages A Win

Philadelphia managed to win a road play-off game by two scores yesterday evening.

Now, I choose the word manage deliberately. But before I complain and carp, I concede that winning a play-off road game by the aforementioned two scores is pretty darn good.

Now, that being acknowledged, that offensive effort will get the Eagles blown out of Giants Stadium this weekend by multiple scores: two turnovers from the quarterback, quarters of offensive ennui that only the Eagles can generate.

The defense played fine. Minnesota played the game predicted here. The Vikes rushed for a gaudy 150 yards- but as always happens against a quality defensive team, they were unable to turn that rushing total into points north of 17. he Vikings spent most of the day manfully struggling to score fourteen points and stay in contact with the Eagles.

Unfortunately, the Eagles spent most of the week listening to talk radio about establishing and staying with the run- despite the fact they don’t run the ball well and Minnesota, if nothing else, really clamps down on the run. So the Eagles wasted some two dozen snaps watching Westbrook get stuffed- and hobbling themsleves deliberately.

For three plus quarters the Eagles persisted with this nonsense- sentencing themselves to the same “17 points and under” day Minnesota sough to achieve. On offense, the Eagles scored 19 points- but really, six of those were the result of a giant punt return and the ball turned over on downs late. The Eagles kicked a lot of field goals because that was running the football is all about- needing to run a dozen plays successfully to score, failing once, having to kick.

There were some other issues too. In retrospect, Minnesota's good defensive line that was designed to exploit some problems the Eagles have there. In the absence of Shawn Andrews, you can bully their interior guys- and Minnesota DTs had good push all day. Also, the Eagles tackles are increasingly slow- and Minnesota’s edge ushers really tortured them- particularly with the tight end Celek being used frequently as a receiver rather than help.

Both teams exchanged this languor for fifty minutes- until the Eagles used a forward pass to Westbrook- the kind sportswriters hate- to clinch the game. The other two huge plays of the second half, where the Eagles gained first downs from inside their ten to flip field position, were also the result of the forward pass- poignantly after the run failed!

To their credit, Philadelphia showed that sort of professionalism they normally do on the road. Outside of McNabb’s turnovers- and only one was horrid and potentially harmful- they played an errorless game. Peterson had a big run- but the guy is great, he’s allowed to make plays.

People rant about Reid can’t coach… but how about, say, the Eagles special teams yesterday? They made all their kicks. They covered all returns. The only penalty was a sham. They got a giant return from Jackson. Or how about that screen pass to that ended the game- all those guys blocking 40 yards down field? They might run that play fifty times this year- and only once or twoce do we notice whether the guys downfield actually make blocks. Not surprisingly, there they were, not loafing, putting hats on guys. Add in zero turnovers from wideouts and running backs and returnees. All of this is coaching too.

That is why Philadelphia is a tough road out. Be it the Giants and Saints two years ago, or Minnesota yesterday, they put a tight, well coached product out there- and force the other team to make play after play after play without error too.

The Pick

In Philadelphia Eagles’ terms, the time we’ve been away from the NFL play-offs has felt like forever: two entire seasons since the brave Jeff Garcia bruted this offense into the show. And I must admit I’ve forgotten the wrenching nature of play-off week: drifting in a haze until the next kick-off, the same bad sweaty dreams night after night where I am the RT in the Metrodome consistently getting beaten off the edge.

That being said, I am pretty confident giving the Vikings +3. The line isn’t crazy unfair- it implies the Eagles by a touchdown at a neutral site. That seems about right. And the Vikes are at home- that helps.

I just can’t help thinking this is a sort of a bad spot for Minnesota. The Eagles’ front seven has been unblockable in the passing game for about two months now. The entire defense is healthy- guys moving in and out of there right now, contributing. That is a huge intangible.

Consequently, I can see the Vikes falling into kind of trap here. Minnesota could have what passes for a good day on offense in this spot- Adrian Peterson rushes a little north of 110 yards, Tarvaris Jackson throws for something respectable, one TD, one pick- and still score only 17-ish points. Maybe a good example would be this home play-off game of recent vintage- where the Eagles ran it for 151 yards, Garcia played a nice game, and they only scored two TDs?

I can’t see how Minnesota manufactures three or more scores against a defense that no one can block two plays in a row, run against in the red zone, or ever gives up a giant pass play. This approach of 25 passes and 125 yards rushing almost sentences the Vikings to play a game in the teens, low 20s. To get to 24 or more points, Minnesota would have to take some chances- but instead I imagine they’ll be content to play ball control and safe throws.

And that approach just doesn’t add up to enough points to win in this spot. The Eagles quietly set a franchise scoring record this year. Now, I know that is deceptive- because there have been times when the Eagles have been absolutely horrid on offense. But that tends to be the result of one of two symptoms- either Westbrook is hurt/ineffective (Cincinnati) or the defense provides some high level base of competence (Baltimore).

Assuming Westbrook is healthy and not used up- he didn’t play that much versus Dallas- neither condition exists here.

If the Eagles play well, they can score four or more times versus Minnesota’s 17-ish. And frankly, that is just it- the Vikings playing well and still losing by more than a score. They need help- and the Eagles, for all their faults, tend to roll out that B+ effort every week. Without penalties and turnovers, the Vikes just don’t have enough firepower to hang with and Eagles outfit with a productive Westbrook.

I had been on a good roll picking the Eagles in the play-offs ATS: eight of the last eleven correct- but I've missed the last two: Saints and Giants. Here, I am confident too: Eagles -3 over Minnesota.

Change In Status!

This blog has only a few obligations. Consequently, due to the circumstances surrounding yesterday’s events, this blog will have to take a series of important, shall we say, itemizations- to ensure its continued relevance and complete, total loyalty.

Because, you guessed it, the Philadelphia Phillies lead the chase for the National League Wild Card. Of course, the Phillies effort requires the requisite acknowledgment- just completed- and a resolute commitment to stay informed. To that end, the information is as follows:

With a degree of humility, the Magic Number is 42!

42! This morning, it almost seems do-able. Coupled with McNabb’s 6-for-9, 138 yards effort from last night, well, the glow washes over.