Wrong Again?

Like normal, this year’s Kentucky Derby is a complete mystery- and I will no doubt miss again. As Frank Helps You Think It All Out rolls on and on- more and more misses hit the wall: here and here and here and here and here.

That being said, some of the misses have been close- and since I’m always wagering on this lottery for a big score, I’m optimistic that a bit of luck will bring the big payday. Plus, it is cowardly to not have a selection.

I don’t like the favorite, Lookin at Lucky, all that much. It normally takes a 100+ Beyer figure to win this thing- and Lucky hasn’t managed that. These California horses run on the synthetic dirt- form that tends to translate better to grass than dirt. He could win- but is no more likely than a bunch of other horses with 90-ish figures- some of whom managed to do it on “real” dirt. The second choice, Sidney’s Candy, shows has suspect this field is. Here is a horse that has never run on dirt- with a horrid post position (#20- all the way outside), yet no colt (or the singular filly) with a more advantageous draw and real dirt experience sees likely to draw more money. Needless to say, for reasons similar to the favorite (no real dirt form, bad post, lack of a 100 Beyer), I pass.

This race, loaded with talented colts whom have only made a few starts in 2010 (only two have made as many as four), normally is won by the colt that wakes up and realizes his talent. With nineteen choices plus that girl, normally someone does. It could be Lookin at Lucky or Sidney’s Candy- but like trading with Goldman Sachs, the return probably doesn’t justify the risk. So I am going to try and find a colt that could wake up- but at a bigger price.

Ice Box, Super Saver and Jackson Bend all figure to go off at better than 10 to 1, all have good 90-ish real dirt figures in good preps at major racing centers. Awesome Act and Stately Victor have decent credentials on dirt too. The filly has good Beyer's too and dirt form- but her form outside of the Bonnie Miss stake is frankly bad. Too much value to have to add the “will she decide to run today?” question.

So let’s play a slew of $2 exacta with Ice Box, Super Saver and Jackson Bend on top and wheeling the same three, plus Awesome Act and Stately Victor on the bottom. That is 12 bets = $24 dollars.

As you all know, along with dosage and other strategies, one of the Derby’s most potent betting signals is my father’s selection. My father’s selection (for those in the know, this is a powerful wagering angle!!): Awesome Act.

Desert Party

Real Clear Sports celebrates thoroughbred racing greatest day- the Kentucky Derby- with a series of trashy attacks and barely disguised contempt for the modern landed gentry. Rhoden can barely hide his contempt for us owners of CHDN (chart here). However, since I aspire mightily to be landed gentry, you’ll find me at the windows this Saturday, wagers in hand.

In recent years, I’ve absolutely crushed the last two legs of the Triple Crown- but the Kentucky Derby is a never ending mystery to me. It is a hard race to dope: a cast of characters from across the nation, lightly raced, little back form- and add in the many moves from synthetic tracks to real dirt- it is a crapshoot.

So, I don’t really look to the favorites- but rather someone who might just wake up and grab this thing. You're taking real risk no matter who you pick here- so you might as well be in a position to be well compensated. To wit, I think it is hard to argue that I Want Revenge is not a well-deserved fave. He's been awesome on the dirt at Aqueduct this spring after a nice juvenile career out in California.

But I’m not interest in chasing this meager payout in this enormous field that figures to, as always, be bumping and trafficky.

I like Desert Party. The Godolphin Stable is once again bring one of its UAE wunderkinds over- but at least Desert Party raced on dirt and can definitely hang in on this distance. The UAE Derby won’t be a top-level Kentucky Derby prep event until one of the shiek’s horses get up and get it done. But he is the best three year old from the best stable in the world- I figure he’s a live one. Ramon Dominguez- master of off the pace riding- is up.

I like Friesan Fire roaring up from New Orleans off consistent efforts that would put him in the money here. And Dunkirk- lightly raced- improves a mere hair he is in this to win it.

So let’s put a $30 win bet on Desert Party- and a $10 saver on Dunkirk (if he wins he’ll cover the losses elsewhere). Then let’s play a small $5 exacta box on Desert Party with Dunkirk and $5 exacta on Desert Party with Friesan Fire.

Genuine Risk is Dead

The Daily Racing Form reports that Genuine Risk is dead.

Genuine Risk won the Kentucky Derby in 1980. Remarkable enough in itself- but truly remarkable in that she won- only the third filly in history. Regret won in 1915; Winning Colors won in 1988.

The video below shows her crowning achievement: her Kentucky Derby win, Jacinto Vasquez up:

The Colonel Isn't Just KFC

You can put me in the same bucket as everyone else. The Kentucky Derby doesn’t produce handicappers anymore- only complainers. Frankly, it was hard enough before simply doping out twenty horses, all in a desperate need to get in one another’s way- shipping in from all over the country having faced utterly disparate conditions and competition.

But now they run on rubber, and that makes it all the more discombobulating. If you thought the grass-to-dirt angle was bad, now we have synthetic-to-dirt, and no one knows who will make the transition from the increasing number of synthetic surfaces to the regular old dirt at Churchill Downs. As Andy Beyer writes in the Washington Post:

Of the 20 Derby entrants, nine made their last starts on synthetic tracks. Two have not raced on anything but synthetics. What should handicappers make of horses such as Monba and Adriano, who won important stakes on Polytrack after poor performances on dirt? What do we do with Pyro, who ran terribly on Keeneland's Polytrack after looking like a potential star on dirt? What do we do with Colonel John, regarded as the West's top 3-year-old, who has not run on anything but the synthetic surfaces in California?

As any good Wall Street pro knows- as uncertainty goes up, so does the need for value versus obvious merit. Fortunately, the enormous field means just about any choices outside of the immediate chalk spells value. Only two horses figure to go off at less than 5-to-1. And fortunately, I’m down on the favorite.

Down might not be the right world. But Big Brown is parked in post twenty. That auxiliary gate is bad news- even for the horse who has shown the most ability in the field. Let’s save the big boy- and his small risk/reward ratio- for Baltimore. Again, I’m looking for a price- a boxcar score for a small investment to compensate for the risk and the fact no one knows what is going to happen.

I’ve got good feelings about a few contenders with decent figures. Colonel John was fast in traffic- seems quick and interested. If he had earned his figs on the dirt, he’s be the chalk here. And he might be lightly prepped- but he fires.

Gayego and Smooth Air can run- but figure to be hurt by post and health (a mysterious fever)- so I’ll use’em as savers. Tales of Ekati can slug. Recapturetheglory gives you much of the speed of Big Brown- with a slightly better post and much better price. Z Fortune can run in traffic. All five should give better than 15 to 1 value. I’d have saved the filly Eight Belles for Baltimore- let her run fresh versus the boys rather than slug it out with them here.

So that is the play: we’re going to box $4 exactas with Gayego, Smooth Air, Tales of Ekati, Recapturetheglory and Z Fortune- $40 to try and win something like a thousand. And we’ll play $2 exactas on Colonel John with those five- $10 to squeeze out a $100 and give us mad money for Preakness.

A fortune was garnered at the Belmont with the filly last year here. And missed on the Derby here.

Dense Little Elves

The stupidest people in America are easy to find. They populate the jockey colony at any American thoroughbred race track. Normally, I don’t care. But at Saturday’s Kentucky Derby those dense little elves cost me hundreds of dollars. They literally stole from me.

I had the top two finishers on my exacta ticket- but in the reverse order of finish- which would have probably been the correct order if finish had the collected wisdom of the rider population manage to realize (as Ray Kerrison points out):

1. Street Sense was one of two horses to beat.
2. Street Sense is nothing but a closing machine.
3. So you dimwits, it might not be best to allow this talented racing machine to stroll up inside, taking full advantage of the heavy rail bias.

Street Sense looked like Jeff Gordon out there- passing seventeen or so competitors to the inside with not one, not one, thinking it might be astute to shut off his progress.

It was pitiful- but Ray is right. He candidly describes the collective rides as a situation that “should never be tolerated”. Only Todd Pletcher is more stupid this morning. Take a moment to enjoy his brillant anaylsis.

Yum! Brands

I have a bad feeling this year. Predicting this Kentucky Derby is much like predicting New York’s beloved Powerball- except you are limited to 20 numbers. Even the presented by Yum! Brands adds a nice Lotto stylization to it. Oh, Medaglia d’Oro, I miss you.

Well, it also means we all have a sporting chance to hit this thing- which frankly only has to help me. I haven’t hit the Derby in awhile. The introduction of luck elements simply has to help. Also, I have my bottle of Woodford Reserve- actually purchased in Kentucky during Thunder over Louisville- so it has to be an optimistic totem.

Today’s story seems to feature two horses perceived as a cut above the field: Curlin and Street Sense- and my overriding impression is that you almost have to bet against them. Curlin is being lauded to the skies for his two smashing graded prep performances- both performed in, wait for it, Arkansas. His 102 Beyer in the Arkansas Derby is a not a particularly good number for a champion running free near the top. Plus, while 102 might get it done here, he ain’t getting that cruising trip in this mob today. Street Sense was the best of this class last year- crushing many of these horses in the Juvenile last year at CD. But he has done little since- and his Blue Grass prep was out and out slow. That race won’t get him on the board today. Frankly, Street Sense is a favorite only because the last time we “really” saw him was the awesome performance seven months ago.

Mind you, both could win this thing- but the price you get doesn’t befit the records on hand. Or frankly, the very chanciness of this event: throw in the probably off track, all this Polytrack nonsense, and the enormous field getting in each other’s way… well, it does not feel like Giacomo again, but certainly one must consider value more than pure merit.

So I am going to recommend playing a collection of "second tier" horses- hoping one breaks through- and whose price indicates a little better risk-reward option.

As seen to the right, I like Hard Spun- who ran a 101 getting it done in the G2 Lanes End. As I stated above, a Beyer around 102 might get it done today. Giacomo’s brother Tiago is here today, sports a huge Grade 1 prep win at the Derby at Santa Anita and has also run a triple digit Beyer. Nobiz Like Showbiz is a tough nut too, a real brawler in traffic, whose best efforts are just shy of 100- but won the G1 Wood memorial to punch his ticket here.

So I’m gonna run a bunch of small exactas out there. Put Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Showbiz and Tiago on top of one another, Circular Quay, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday. That is fifteen small tickets- figure $3 on the Hard Spun and Tiago tix, $2 on the others- that is $40- and the approved play for this afternoon.