Lemons & Mint

Lemons Forever (look just left) lit up the tote board yesterday in the Kentucky Oaks- the Kentucky Derby for girls as it were- paying her backers back at a rollicking 47-1. Gosh- what a gorgeous girl, right? I see that as a sort of omen- and not just because Lemons Forever compassionately describes my Derby selections* of the past decade. Instead, the big Churchill Downs’ events scream “play for value” rather than “pick the winner”- and Lemons Forever embodies that approach.

Last year, I confidently identified the best three year old in the country- Afleet Alex- and the entire season established he probably was. Unfortunately, the Kentucky Derby did not. I went to my first Derby three years ago- and the number one lesson I took from the experience is that the Derby is not really a thoroughbred horse race. It is an exercise in traffic management. Afleet Alex rallied too soon- starting earlier than normal in order to circumnavigate his fading peers- and was caught at the wire by the useless Giacomo (class compells me to gracefully grant kudos to the S. marriage of DC for holding that winning ticket at 50 to 1).

Okay, I like horse racing a lot. And not just because it gives America something to do between the NFL Draft and the start of football season. For one thing, I spent last year’s Derby laid up with bronchitis- so this year’s affair almost has to be better from a health perspective. And man, the race is loaded with talent- an outstanding "on paper" field. Two undefeated contenders, four undefeated this year. Just about every major prep winner stayed healthy and is in attendance.

Pace is not gonna be a problem either. All kinds of talented front-runners. Dad likes Sinister Minister- and there is a lot to like there. The inside post means he is the one front-runner who ought to be able to get to the front for sure- and his prep at the Blue Grass was a frightening display of power. Sinister Minister's Beyer of 116 is also the best of the field.

And there is a ton of speed to go with him. Lawyer Ron cruised in the Arkansas Derby, the Southwest and Risen Star- and was picked by OJ Simpson in the paper today- a telling angle we probably ought not ignore. Barbaro looked real sharp and determined digging in to score in Florida. AP Warrior and Sweetnorthernsaint won from up top- representing good races in California and Illinois respectively. And there is a real good group of second tier, want to go to the front, racers in here too: Sharp Humor, Keyed Entry, etc.

The popular take is that, much like last year, this outstanding crop of "runners from the start" will go out and beat on each other. It only takes two of the dozen go-getters to set suicidal initial fractions- setting the race up for the closers- as the exhausted pace setters collapse. As the morning drinking cognoscenti in Kentucky say: a race that falls apart.

Who will emerge- swerving their way up the stretch to immortality at Churchill Downs? Beats me. There is no Afleet Alex- a horse that leaps out wit hthe ability to take advantage of the collapsing field. And since it is a crapshoot, I want to drive a little value into the selection- try to chase that 40 to 1 score.

AP Warrior (picture to the right- morning line 15 to 1) will be around the pace- not on it- thus close enough to take advantage of the collapsing leaders without having to navigate through the whole field. He has the Beyer number- and Corey Nakatani up- who can ride with the best of them. Barbaro (6-1) and Point Determined (9-1) have a pretty short prices- but again feature those triple digit Beyers'- and also ought to be close to the leaders should they go bust. Normally you need around a 110 Beyer to win this thing, plus a little luck. Any of three just need to improve a titch to get that 110- and they got as good a chance at the "luck apple" as anyone.

As a proud shareholder inCHDN, its recent performance has given us some extra funds to burn. So for a realistic $54 shot, let’s play AP Warrior, Barbaro and Point Determined as an exacta box ($4 x 6 combinations) and $10 on each to win outright.

Now I’m off to the track to try and find a place to park the car. The best mint juleps are pre-10AM mint juleps. And yes, I will be looking to buy a "luck apple".

* normally you "pick" the winner- but for the Kentucky Derby one makes “selections”