Report: Ice Station Lurie

My treacherous slog to Ice Station Lurie was rewarded with a sloppy, yet somewhat entertaining, defeat of the San Francisco 49ers. Walking to the Linc, the sun slipped below the horizon, and immediately the Hawk was out. Mercy, it was cold, yet busy, in 204: dodging snowballs, rooting for the defense, shivering. Fortunately, I have a flask shaped like a cell phone- and enjoyed warming Woodford Reserve despite the Prohibition.

While there were no style points in this win for Philadelphia, it is perhaps a marker of how far they have come this past six weeks. The Eagles got a careless game from McNabb- but in the end it only meant the Eagles cruised by two scores, rather than smash San Francisco out of the building.

San Francisco isn’t that bad- the49ers have only one other loss by more than a touchdown. They were coming off a pretty impressive road win in Arizona. They were desperate- had a long shot play-off bid to play for. And they still trailed most of the game by two-scores by a bored Philadelphia outfit.

Conversely, the defense rebounded in a big way. The 49ers put out there nifty tight end Vernon Davis- and the Eagles have struggled with that linebacker coverage assignment all year. With the return of nickel back Joselio Hanson from suspension, the Eagles tried something different.

I will begin by saying I love two things in pro-football: punting (always punt the ball) and the “nickel” defense (look for excuses to get the extra defensive back out there). And that is what the Eagles did Sunday. The pretty much substituted Hanson in for the third linebacker regardless of down and distance- and put him right over Davis.

A great truism in the NFL is that you can run on the other team’s nickel- and the 49ers did all day. Frank Gore was north of 100 yards on 16 carries. But big rushing days in the NFL just don’t translate in 24+ points unless you can throw effectively. With the Eagles quality corners clamping down on the wideouts, Hanson regular subtraction of Vernon Davis (three catches), and a poor day from 49ers’ quarterback Alex Smith- there was no 49ers formula to score.

One more thing on that. In the NFL, third-and-two is a nickel down (outside the red zone). Why? You gotta figure it is easier to run for two yards than throw it? 70% of rush attempts in the NFL go for two or more yards- probably even more when the nickel is out there rather than the base defense. Ain’t no one completing 70% of third and short passes- not to mention you're more inclined to turn it over/take a sack on any pass play.

But, in the League, third-and-two is like second-and-short and first down; it is a big play down. In a League where teams need to consistently generate 20+ yard plays to win, third-and-two is now a chance to go up top. Defenses are looking to jam receivers, safeties are in- there are chances to slip guys downfield one-on-one and still time check down to safety valves if the big play does not materialize. McNabb takes a couple shots deep each game third-and-short, including one to Jackson that worked. Teams see third-and-short as a big pass play down, and get the defenders out accordingly.

The only real disappointment was watching one-time Eagle prospect Michael Lewis really struggle. Once Lewis was yet another in an endless stream of quality defensive backs drafted by Philadelphia: 2nd round out of Colorado in 2002. Now, he is visibly slow, cheating in coverage- hobbled by leg injuries, one pick on the entire year. He did have eight tackles- but that was because the Eagles were just attacking him at every opportunity.

As Minnesota and New Orleans slide back weekly, the Eagles seem increasingly in the NFC mix. While it would probably be a mild upset for the Giants or Cowboys to win a play-off game at the Linc, it doesn’t seem much more of a stretch for the Eagles to win at New Orleans.

Bring On Les Habitants

In today’s Washington Post, Mike Wise writes:

"It's not over. It's just beginning."

Wrong. I’m telling you; you never get over it. Sometimes, I’ll be driving, or napping, really anything- and it just pops in there. Game Seven: Dale Hunter beating Pete Peters. In overtime. Twenty years ago- and a brutal wave of nauseous ennui still will pass through my gut. I was at the Jax Brewery in New Orleans- and I can never go back there. It is like thoughts of the Stay-Puft Marshmallow Man, one can’t control it.

So about 10PM last night, I wasn’t doing too good: flinching, not talking, nursing a Woodford Reserve.

Game Seven was a true triumph on the “new” NHL. Oh, how the League office must have been congratulating itself! Ten power plays; two five-on-threes. Three power play goals, a fourth that might as well have been, plus the deciding goal in overtime! It is a shame Ovechkin didn’t get to participate in a shoot-out for the series; the NHL would have liked that a whole super lot!

Really, five-on-five, the whole basis for hockey, had no bearing on the outcome last night- which, if you are a fan, is sort of a shame. Of the ten penalties called, six probably didn’t need to be called in a big spot, where they could affect the series (although the decisive one in overtime was a proper call). If four goals in five were scored as a result of fouls, the game is unavoidably largely a special teams’ competition. Each team cashed in twice and, except for the consequences of the Flyers overtime goal, played that part of the game even.

It is satisfying to steal this series. Over the last four games, once they figured out the Flyers were pretty serious about this thing, the Capitals were better. The aforementioned Mike Wise quotes an “astute” observer:

When your team plays like a hockey team and not a bunch of figure skaters with padding, you win. Our fans and team didn't beat the Caps up. We made them men. You're welcome.

Perhaps true. I wish the Caps had repaid their debt by running an orderly handshake line: ragged, disjointed- not wholly respectable.

Anyway, over the last four tilts, Washington won twice outright- and got two other games to overtime. That is a 2-0-2 mark- and I think indicative of the difference between the two teams. Accordingly, I was pessimistic. Yesterday, Mr. B wrote to win this Game Seven, the Flyers needed a big game from Biron (which they clearly got for the second time in seven tries) and some reactive help from the hockey fates.

The fates pitched in. Kapanen got that needed lucky goal when Huet got rocked off his feet (ed. note: yeah, I thought it was a good goal- but I’m a minimalist). While that marker was not the difference in the “Battle of the Power Plays”, it set up the overtime. While Washington was better than Philly most of the time, overtime injects that “who is better for this shift?” rather than “who is the better team?” element. For sure, it got the Flyers through Game Four.

The Flyers played seven gritty games to get to that former question rather than the latter. Guys like Kimmo Timonen played 10:36 of the first period to get to that question. And at 6:06, of overtime, that question was one between Joffrey Lupul and Caps’ defensemen Milan Jurcina- and not, for all the hype and all the shifts, Ovechkin and Timonen. And for one brief moment Joffrey Lupul was- very satisfactorily- the greatest hockey player in world.

So bring on Le Bleu-Blanc-et-Rouge, La Sainte-Flanelle, Le Tricolore, Les Glorieux, Les Habitants and Le Grand Club. Le Grand Club? Lord, but they do sound like a bunch of fairy princesses. Heck, who isn't up for that?

Yum! Brands

I have a bad feeling this year. Predicting this Kentucky Derby is much like predicting New York’s beloved Powerball- except you are limited to 20 numbers. Even the presented by Yum! Brands adds a nice Lotto stylization to it. Oh, Medaglia d’Oro, I miss you.

Well, it also means we all have a sporting chance to hit this thing- which frankly only has to help me. I haven’t hit the Derby in awhile. The introduction of luck elements simply has to help. Also, I have my bottle of Woodford Reserve- actually purchased in Kentucky during Thunder over Louisville- so it has to be an optimistic totem.

Today’s story seems to feature two horses perceived as a cut above the field: Curlin and Street Sense- and my overriding impression is that you almost have to bet against them. Curlin is being lauded to the skies for his two smashing graded prep performances- both performed in, wait for it, Arkansas. His 102 Beyer in the Arkansas Derby is a not a particularly good number for a champion running free near the top. Plus, while 102 might get it done here, he ain’t getting that cruising trip in this mob today. Street Sense was the best of this class last year- crushing many of these horses in the Juvenile last year at CD. But he has done little since- and his Blue Grass prep was out and out slow. That race won’t get him on the board today. Frankly, Street Sense is a favorite only because the last time we “really” saw him was the awesome performance seven months ago.

Mind you, both could win this thing- but the price you get doesn’t befit the records on hand. Or frankly, the very chanciness of this event: throw in the probably off track, all this Polytrack nonsense, and the enormous field getting in each other’s way… well, it does not feel like Giacomo again, but certainly one must consider value more than pure merit.

So I am going to recommend playing a collection of "second tier" horses- hoping one breaks through- and whose price indicates a little better risk-reward option.

As seen to the right, I like Hard Spun- who ran a 101 getting it done in the G2 Lanes End. As I stated above, a Beyer around 102 might get it done today. Giacomo’s brother Tiago is here today, sports a huge Grade 1 prep win at the Derby at Santa Anita and has also run a triple digit Beyer. Nobiz Like Showbiz is a tough nut too, a real brawler in traffic, whose best efforts are just shy of 100- but won the G1 Wood memorial to punch his ticket here.

So I’m gonna run a bunch of small exactas out there. Put Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Showbiz and Tiago on top of one another, Circular Quay, Street Sense and Any Given Saturday. That is fifteen small tickets- figure $3 on the Hard Spun and Tiago tix, $2 on the others- that is $40- and the approved play for this afternoon.