Saturday, May 01, 2010

Wrong Again?

Like normal, this year’s Kentucky Derby is a complete mystery- and I will no doubt miss again. As Frank Helps You Think It All Out rolls on and on- more and more misses hit the wall: here and here and here and here and here.

That being said, some of the misses have been close- and since I’m always wagering on this lottery for a big score, I’m optimistic that a bit of luck will bring the big payday. Plus, it is cowardly to not have a selection.

I don’t like the favorite, Lookin at Lucky, all that much. It normally takes a 100+ Beyer figure to win this thing- and Lucky hasn’t managed that. These California horses run on the synthetic dirt- form that tends to translate better to grass than dirt. He could win- but is no more likely than a bunch of other horses with 90-ish figures- some of whom managed to do it on “real” dirt. The second choice, Sidney’s Candy, shows has suspect this field is. Here is a horse that has never run on dirt- with a horrid post position (#20- all the way outside), yet no colt (or the singular filly) with a more advantageous draw and real dirt experience sees likely to draw more money. Needless to say, for reasons similar to the favorite (no real dirt form, bad post, lack of a 100 Beyer), I pass.

This race, loaded with talented colts whom have only made a few starts in 2010 (only two have made as many as four), normally is won by the colt that wakes up and realizes his talent. With nineteen choices plus that girl, normally someone does. It could be Lookin at Lucky or Sidney’s Candy- but like trading with Goldman Sachs, the return probably doesn’t justify the risk. So I am going to try and find a colt that could wake up- but at a bigger price.

Ice Box, Super Saver and Jackson Bend all figure to go off at better than 10 to 1, all have good 90-ish real dirt figures in good preps at major racing centers. Awesome Act and Stately Victor have decent credentials on dirt too. The filly has good Beyer's too and dirt form- but her form outside of the Bonnie Miss stake is frankly bad. Too much value to have to add the “will she decide to run today?” question.

So let’s play a slew of $2 exacta with Ice Box, Super Saver and Jackson Bend on top and wheeling the same three, plus Awesome Act and Stately Victor on the bottom. That is 12 bets = $24 dollars.

As you all know, along with dosage and other strategies, one of the Derby’s most potent betting signals is my father’s selection. My father’s selection (for those in the know, this is a powerful wagering angle!!): Awesome Act.

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