Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Ahoy Pirates!

Tulane beat Rice outright- which means I took a loss last week. Again. Sigh, since the 3-1 start, I haven’t been too good- but a losing season isn’t locked in yet! I still have East Carolina -13 over Tulane left.

I can’t figure out that line. I mean, Tulane figures to the score the ball here? The Pirates aren’t bad on defense exactly. But the Wave has certainly taken a step forward with the football in recent games. For one thing, they are getting something out of the quarterback mix. It is hard to quantify, and it isn’t much- but that something doesn’t need to be much when added to young Forte’s monster season. Whatever, it is present. The point is: Tulane figures to get a respectable point total- and then you get to add almost two touchdowns to that?

I get a feeling Vegas looks at this game as a team with nothing to play for, going on the road, to play a team with a lot to play for. Plus, after Marshall, ECU figures to not look past anyone- and the week off, this late in the campaign, has to help.

None of that is encouraging- and I think it has taken a fair -7.5 choice into a ridiculous -13 point number. Frankly, Tulane just seems real engaged right now. The tailback has a lot to play for, the quarterbacks and coach too. To the rest of the world Tulane looks like a semi-busted outfit- but around here, they’re one win away from a darn credible four I-A win season (The Scelfo Standard) and solid finish. The Wave isn’t good exactly- but they seem to be having fun (spark and verve). I’m obviously not around the team much- but that stunt with the seniors versus UTEP- really changed the tone, gave them a rallying point. The Green Wave has been a looser, almost cocky bunch.

So yes, I think the Wave will play with determination, score a real authentic number- and the defense will continue its run of good defensive front play.

East Carolina is a good C-USA team- which means they will score. But to cover 13 points they need to really whip the Wave’s defense. The new clock rules and Forte’s determined running could cost ECU three possessions- preventing separation on the scoreboard, keeping the game in sight at all times.

Tulane has figured out how to turn Forte in to real points- and the defense is simply not a disaster. I just think the Pirates need something like 38-42 to cover here- and honestly, they might not get close to that sort of number. So I like the Wave- and I’ll take the 13.

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