The Little Owl

Here in Manhattan- there is a charming little Mediterranean place called The Little Owl. I doubt it is in honor of Rice University- but I think fondly of it just the same. Frankly, all Tulane fans feel a little fond sympathy for Rice- a football program that is the twin star to Tulane's.

There is an old saying- that if the horse throws you, you get right back on. Perhaps it is the spirit of humility that opens one to learning and improvement. So, in the spirit of full disclosure, I whiffed badly last week. I need learning and lots of improvement. Tulane scored 14 more points than I thought they would- and allowed 14 fewer. I got smoked.

I did not see that sort of game coming. Last week’s effort would beat all but the very best C-USA teams. Thus, this week’s puzzler is presented. We know what we’re going to get from Rice- a mediocre, three up, three down, C-USA team for the better part of six games now. Unfortunately playing as well as they probably can, the Owls are right out of “second tier C-USA team casting”: tons of offense, can’t stop anyone. The Owls feel a lot like UTEP- featuring a quarterback capable of the big numbers, good skill players, really lousy defense. If Tulane plays back to last week’s effort, they probably win again. If they play back to most other efforts, they probably can’t keep up. The New York Post is confused, perhaps doubtful- and puts Rice -2 over Tulane.

I’m confused, perhaps doubtful too. Miss a game by three scores- and one must re-assess. As I wrote above: Rice is what Rice is. But is Tulane’s effort last week for real and true; did they solve the Rosetta stone all at once?

To me- that is choice here. If last week’s UTEP game is now the “new” Green Wave- then they win. Tulane will have moved up in class, Rice probably won’t match that move up right out of thin air. If instead the effort was simply Tulane’s best game or two of the season, a game hard to duplicate, this game is a problem. If true, Tulane probably can’t keep Rice from the cartoon numbers we saw against other quality C-USA offenses: SMU, Tulsa- or keep up.

I am stuck on the latter idea: if you play twelve games one of them is gonna be your best. Maybe last week was it? I have no evidence- but gut.

Clearly the Wave played with spark and verve last week. But it just feels a lot went right last week- not luck, but the mix of events was real good. Frankly, UTEP didn’t look all that interested- flat- for long stretches, Tulane hit on a real magic quarterback mix, the defense played its best half since LSU, they got a high tempo emotional effort.

To win this game, they need to hit on a similar mix of events. Could happen. I wouldn’t be surprised. Since Houston, they’ve only played two stinkers. The real answer here is “pass this game”: Vegas has a fair spread, Tulane is a real mystery.

That is no fun. Rice was horrid out of the box for about a month- but has been a .500 conference team since then- with a good win on the road at USM. That is the rub. Right now, the Owls are .500 League team; Tulane might be if last week’s effort is repeatable. You pay a two point penalty to get the “sure” versus the “might” is this true toss-up- but a game that feels like it’ll be in the 30s makes the deuce easier to stomach. I’ll give the two- but really, play this game 50 times, Tulane wins it 24.