UAB

Well, Tulane couldn't manage to beat Army last week- is there anyone else worse out there?

Well, I present you with the University of Alabama-Birmingham. They're worse than Army. Unfortunately, the New York Post also puts them -3.5 over Tulane today.

Tricky. Unlike last week’s easy pick (Army shouldn’t be seven over anyone), this seems like a real fair line- a quirky pick to try and better the 4-1 ATS* mark so far.

It is probably an on-field toss up- UAB rating a slight edge from whatever advantage they conjure up from being what passes for “home” at way too many C-USA venues.

Helpfully, UAB is a circa 2005-Tulane level mess on defense- and Forte is very capable of tearing up these bottom C-USA teams for charismatic numbers. Despite the Wave’s mounting injuries/questions up front at tackle and tight end, Forte ought to have right around 200 yards of total offense. Quarterback Scelfo is probably incapable of exploiting this rushing attack- which means, like last week, Tulane is looking at a number probably closer to 17 rather than 27- but they'll also probably score and have the ball long enough to protect the defense.

I get a sense you might see some aggressive quarterback “flexibility” this weekend if the Wave can’t turn Forte into actual points- and that is an intangible that leans Tulane’s way.

UAB has some quarterback injuries- and two of their offensive linemen are apparently out. The latter is particularly helpful- because over the last ten quarters a quality C-USA defensive front has been trying oh-so-hard to break out at Tulane. Pre-season, I opined that Tulane would have to allow at least 100 points less versus last year to get past “real bad”. Well, Tulane is making a determined run at that substantial improvement. I don’t think UAB can block Tulane- how is that for a bold statement concerning Tulane’s defense?- which means they are probably mired south of 20 too.

That makes this pick pretty clear- two teams that aren’t a lock to score three touchdowns- then you have to take the free points, right? Plus, I like three indeterminate factors here: Tulane did travel well last week for 57 minutes, I’m hopeful another qb will play some if Scelfo continues to struggle scoring and the Tulane kicker seems to make “make-able” field goals (no free points given away due to kicking follies). In fact, the OT miss aside last week, our punting/kicking isn’t great- but it isn’t the utter field position cancer its been.

Now, while I’m no fan of Toledo so far, I disagree with recent conundrum presented on fan sites that “Tulane won’t win a game this year cause we’re improving!” I picked three wins pre-season- and I’m sticking with that- if just because there are games like this left on the schedule. Tulane can win this game- will not get blown out- and you’re getting the hook on the field goal. I like it. Give me Tulane, two weeks in a row!, and the 3.5

* SE Louisiana was straight up.