Clash of the C-USA Titans

I spent most of the summer touting the Tulane Green Wave as a stereotypical two-win outfit: zero plus-style playmakers in an offense friendly League, bad defense, worse special teams. I was marginally talked out of that pessimistic pick by an anonymous e-mail that gently pointed the Wave was scheduled to play UL-Monroe, Army and UAB- all at home- chiding me about really thinking the Wave was bad enough to drop two of three there? I decided I agreed with that- and moved my pick up to three.

Well anonymous e-mail buddy, you’re on the hook now. The Wave did manage to lose to Army- and thus needs a win to avoid a losing mark against that aforementioned cast of busted programs. Vegas is optimistic- giving Alabama-Birmingham +5.5- which beggars the question of just how bad are the Blazers?

Answer: pretty bad!

Or are they? Clearly, they did not show up last week versus the Golden Eagles. But their last three efforts versus bottom tier outfits- Alabama State, Memphis, Marshall- would be enough to cover in this spot. People, that is a flat out trend!

I’m not much into historical analysis- but UAB did beat the Wave last year, and the last few years the games have all been one score affairs. I suspect these two teams are in the same class- and that fact bears that out. Also, only six players have started all nine games for the Blazers. Unfortunately for Tulane, QB Joe Webb is one of them- and that sort of mobile touchdown maker always gives Tulane fits.

So we have trends and history- all suggesting UAB ought to be in this thing. Sadly, I’ve been stuck on five wins ATS for awhile- dodging a recent push and an outright loss. I dunno- again, I think these teams on the same level: banged up, bad C-USA outfits. With Anderson, the Wave could rush the football, protect the defense, score some points. Webb means Tulane will probably have to score four times to win. Can Tulane score 28-ish with their zillion questions at the skill positions?

Maybe. UAB stinks. So, it feels like a toss up game to me. I think Tulane can win- but in a pretty even game no matter how you slice it- I’m going to take the five-and-a-half point head start.

UAB

Well, Tulane couldn't manage to beat Army last week- is there anyone else worse out there?

Well, I present you with the University of Alabama-Birmingham. They're worse than Army. Unfortunately, the New York Post also puts them -3.5 over Tulane today.

Tricky. Unlike last week’s easy pick (Army shouldn’t be seven over anyone), this seems like a real fair line- a quirky pick to try and better the 4-1 ATS* mark so far.

It is probably an on-field toss up- UAB rating a slight edge from whatever advantage they conjure up from being what passes for “home” at way too many C-USA venues.

Helpfully, UAB is a circa 2005-Tulane level mess on defense- and Forte is very capable of tearing up these bottom C-USA teams for charismatic numbers. Despite the Wave’s mounting injuries/questions up front at tackle and tight end, Forte ought to have right around 200 yards of total offense. Quarterback Scelfo is probably incapable of exploiting this rushing attack- which means, like last week, Tulane is looking at a number probably closer to 17 rather than 27- but they'll also probably score and have the ball long enough to protect the defense.

I get a sense you might see some aggressive quarterback “flexibility” this weekend if the Wave can’t turn Forte into actual points- and that is an intangible that leans Tulane’s way.

UAB has some quarterback injuries- and two of their offensive linemen are apparently out. The latter is particularly helpful- because over the last ten quarters a quality C-USA defensive front has been trying oh-so-hard to break out at Tulane. Pre-season, I opined that Tulane would have to allow at least 100 points less versus last year to get past “real bad”. Well, Tulane is making a determined run at that substantial improvement. I don’t think UAB can block Tulane- how is that for a bold statement concerning Tulane’s defense?- which means they are probably mired south of 20 too.

That makes this pick pretty clear- two teams that aren’t a lock to score three touchdowns- then you have to take the free points, right? Plus, I like three indeterminate factors here: Tulane did travel well last week for 57 minutes, I’m hopeful another qb will play some if Scelfo continues to struggle scoring and the Tulane kicker seems to make “make-able” field goals (no free points given away due to kicking follies). In fact, the OT miss aside last week, our punting/kicking isn’t great- but it isn’t the utter field position cancer its been.

Now, while I’m no fan of Toledo so far, I disagree with recent conundrum presented on fan sites that “Tulane won’t win a game this year cause we’re improving!” I picked three wins pre-season- and I’m sticking with that- if just because there are games like this left on the schedule. Tulane can win this game- will not get blown out- and you’re getting the hook on the field goal. I like it. Give me Tulane, two weeks in a row!, and the 3.5

* SE Louisiana was straight up.