Thursday, September 20, 2007

A Prediction

Confidently, I predict Tulane had better win.

Seriously, there is no line- and I know nothing about the Southeastern Louisiana Lions- other than they are clearly willing to travel to play I-A teams for a check. Kentucky Wesleyan probably regrets scheduling them too.

So I have no real “pick”- no way to run the mark ATS for 2007 to 3-0.

As to the game... well, Southeastern was able to rush the football against New Mexico State- which suggests they’ll both be definitely trying to and probably able to rush it against Tulane. Some sort of similar, or better, 37 carries-for-137 yards effort will keep the clock moving- and the number of Tulane possessions down. The Lions had 34 minutes ToP, which along with four turnovers, kept New Mexico State from getting a crazy number offensively. I expect Tulane will struggle to put 28+ points up to- which means SE Louisiana could hang around.

If we get the Tulane effort of this year- multiple selfish penalties, three fustian quarterbacks, Forte turnovers- even then, I can’t see the Wave dropping this game. NMS had four interceptions and still breezed in this spot. Frankly, this is a no excuses spot. Southeastern is here to be beaten.

The three areas above are what this tune-up is about. It is a chance to play a quick, crisp game: get Forte going with 25 veteran savvy touches, no idiocy, and see Elliott (and only Elliott please Coach Sullivan) move up from his decent Mississippi State effort.

In fact, I bet Elliott goes for a good day here. In 2005, Tulane played Rice- a spot where Jovon and Matt could run the ball and the Wave could protect- and Scott went for something like 300 yards and three TDs. You would think this is a spot where Tulane could recreate that good rushing attack and pass protection- and Elliott could generate that exact good day. I’ve always been sort of bullish on Scott since that game versus Rice- that he could be a competent ball distributor given a modicum of help. Consequently, I’m interested to see his upcoming efforts versus Southeastern and Army- games where Tulane figures to be physically competitive up front and Forte figures to have success.

Lastly, I am very glad to see Casey Robottom get the start Saturday. He was one of the best players on the field Saturday- let’s see if he’s for real- a real chance to upgrade an important position. If Robottom is adept, Tulane has a chance to put three/four legit C-USA skill players on the field capable of cartoon numbers. In a League with almost a total absence of sagacious defensive backs, that is a recipe for the “score four-five-six TDs offense” Tulane will need to be in most League games with this defense.

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