First Up: Mississippi State

Mississippi State is first up for Tulane this year- and the official line in the New York Post has State -6 over Tulane. While it is not surprising to see MSU favored, the Bulldogs learned last year they better bring their jock and be interested. I mean, when say, was Pitt's last road win in the SEC?

In 2006, Tulane opened with two stone lay-ups ATS. There was no way Tulane could keep Kolb under 35, making Houston an easy pick favored by anything less than three touchdowns. Next up, the Bulldogs were -11 over Tulane based mostly on the Wave’s uncompetitive performance in said Houston affair. Again, that disaster was more Houston being sort of uniquely designed to torment Tulane, than Tulane being truly horrid. So- an easy 2-0 ATS start!

Tulane +6 is a lot more fair than either of those first two spreads from last year- and I think this is a tricky pick- particularly since we haven’t seen Tulane at all this year.

There are a lot of “worries” here. Short of lining up the corners as down linemen, Mississippi State is absolutely going to load up to stop the veteran Matt Forte. Our line couldn’t block standard fronts last year consistently; how are they going to deal with this pressure? Elliott is going to have to throw the ball- perhaps not great, but certainly semi-effectively. I’d have a lot more confidence in young Scott if this wasn’t his absolute very first start in an absolutely new offense.

Scott is going to face duress. Mississippi State isn’t hopeless, there are athletes on this defense who beat Alabama last year- and held teams like Arkansas and Mississippi to respectable totals. While this is a winnable game, maybe it would be a better game seven weeks from now, with a more mature quarterback?

Despite Mississippi State’s well chronicled offensive woes, I don’t trust the Tulane defense at all. Everyone, other than a disinterested UCF, goes for at least high 20's- so MSU can get a requisite total to cover this number.

Tulane can win this game- it is a hazardous pick cause the favorite probably isn’t very good. But it feels to me a little like last year, in the sense that getting routed- and looking bad- against LSU counts for nothing here. Tulane looked bad against Houston in 2005- but it meant nothing in the context of the MSU game simply because Houston was just a bad match-up for the defense. Same thing here- the Bulldogs’ one dimensional offense was just a bad match-up for the dialed in, swift LSU defense. It says little about what the Bulldogs can do this week.

Frankly, if Croom doesn’t have their full attention this week- coming off both a bad loss to LSU and a loss to the Green Wave last year- when will he? Tulane ain’t sneakin’ up on anyone here- and, in thoroughbred parlance, MSU figures to move up with a race under its belt coupled with a drop in class.

You know, even if you have Tulane at something like 7-8 wins, this is one you probably are carrying in the “probable loss” bucket. It is a hard spot for Tulane- one that I would feel better about in November. So I am going to officially take Mississippi State -6 over Tulane- but it is chancy enough that I don’t feel you’re wasting time going to the Dome rooting for an upset.