2006 Tulane- a Rough Road To Glory

Some good news spiraled out of the deep American south this weekend- and I am not simply talking about Jeff Gordon wrecking out of the Budweiser Shootout due to his own negligence. I am talking college football- as the Tulane Green Wave announced its brutal schedule for 2006:

Sept. 9 @ Houston
Sept. 16 @ Mississippi State
Sept. 23 @ Louisiana State
Sept. 30 SMU
Oct. 7 Rice
Oct. 14 @ UTEP
Oct. 21 @ Auburn
Oct. 28 Army
Nov. 4 @ Marshall
Nov. 11 Southern Miss
Nov. 18 Central Florida
Nov. 25 @ Tulsa

Clearly, the out of conference slate, featuring three road SEC games, is beyond difficult for a program like Tulane. The Tulane community realized that playing road games against big programs like Auburn for checks was in the post-Katrina future. Unfortunately, Tulane owed Mississippi State a road date as well- and this is the year Tulane travels to Tiger Stadium in the home and home arrangement.

But, in a sense, Tulane actually catches kind of break with this SEC set-up. The Wave isn’t beating Auburn or Louisiana State anywhere- and if we’ve learned anything the past two years, Mississippi State is a clear step better than Tulane. And even if the Wave is in a position to steal it, I am not sure Tulane gets all that much playing the Bulldogs in the Dome (lots of Mississippi State fans) versus the road (not exactly the prototypical SEC intimidation-style facility).

Now, the Wave opens on the road- in order to give them one more month to get the Louisiana Superdome in some kind of order. It is kind of a tough break- probably means the Green Wave opens with three games they are a score-plus ‘dog- before they get home with a more manageable game. But, again, while the first two are very hard- they are not impossible- and feature opponents that have little reason to be “up” for Tulane. Steal one- and they could be .500 heading into the tricky second half.

To me, the salvation of the schedule is that it sort of innoculates the Wave against utter disaster- a gut-wrenching one-two win campaign. Getting Rice, SMU and Army to New Orleans- three teams that categorically do not win on the road much- well, it is hard to imagine the Wave cannot get two. I doubt Tulane will be good enough to sweep them- but I also cannot see the Wave being bad enough to lose two at home to that mess.

You can’t tell until spring of course, but it feels like three-four wins to me. The two above- plus a few chances to steal a game here and there. I really can’t see how you can put the Wave near six unless they can get one of the first two road games- and that seems problematic to me.