Super Bowl Pick

After the tone and nature of this week’s Super Bowl coverage, I almost feel like I need to couch my Super Bowl pick in terms of a mental problem. Like, “Hi. I’m Frank- and I like Seattle plus four.” On a related note, the Wheelhouse has a laugh-out-loud post up about the chore the Super Bowl has become.

This isn’t like last year’s pick- where I thought Philadelphia was a lay up with the points. You can make a very cognizant argument for Pittsburgh here. But I lean toward Seattle for a few reasons.

A lot of it is that I have a lot of anti-Pittsburgh karma going. I doubt the Steelers- and doubt leads to fear.

First, I think there is a lot of bias toward the AFC: the AFC is better than the NFC, the top three/four teams in the AFC would win every division in the NFC. Maybe. Definitely in 2004. And probably early in 2005. But our League is not like college. Teams move around “ability-wise” quite readily. A college team in the top echelon half way through a season is usually there at the end. In the NFL, the top echelon seems more fluid- even month to month.

For instance, it is hard to argue that the Steelers are not one of the top five teams in the NFL. Conversely, it was probably equally impossible at Thanksgiving to argue they were a potentially great team. The Steelers have had a super run here- but I wonder how much of it is they played well at the right time- when Indianapolis and Denver and New England did not? And that the reason the Steelers are here is they stayed righted, while the top teams in the AFC regressed a bit. Or, to put it another way, at Thanksgiving it looked like it would take a great team to knock off the great Colts. But in January, it looked like a bunch of 10-win, 11-win teams sorting themselves out?

Consequently, I sort of think the Steelers are a good team playing well- rather than the great AFC team we thought would emerge. Can they ring the bell yet again amidst the circus of the Supe? I know I’d rather be Seattle- having played twice in Seattle in the past month (a similar analogy is a huge part of why the Eagles hung around with the Patriots last year)- rather than the grueling circuitous trip the Steelers have managed. Fresh is big.

I was reading the Wildcat in the paper yesterday- who is picking against the Steelers because he doubts they can duplicate their success “playing against type as a pass-first, run second entity”. I sort of agree- but I am less afraid they can’t, rather than they won’t.

To me, it is no surprise the Steelers got good on offense when they noticeably moved away from the running game. Once Roethlisberger demonstrated competence, it only left points on the board to make Willie Parker (I mean, good player, but come on) and Bettis (I think he is obviously not the player he was) the focal point. I am not going to rehash my bias against rushing the football- but the Steelers became elite right around the minute they became a passing team. Hmm…

I don’t know if the Steelers have internalized that- and would not be surprised if they wasted a few first half possessions “trying to establish the run”. This wouldn’t be the first time Cowher has mis-prepared in a big spot. I know Holmgren won’t. He’ll have Hasselbeck and that real nice collection of receivers torturing Pittsburgh indifferent corners from the get-go. Alexander will keep their nickel off the field and move the clock- shortening the game a little- keeping this contest in one-score territory.

Lastly, a good rule of thumb in handicapping is that if you would not be surprised if a team won- and you are getting a score-plus, take the points. So I am. I’ll take Seattle- and the four points.