Report: Ice Station Lurie

My treacherous slog to Ice Station Lurie was rewarded with a sloppy, yet somewhat entertaining, defeat of the San Francisco 49ers. Walking to the Linc, the sun slipped below the horizon, and immediately the Hawk was out. Mercy, it was cold, yet busy, in 204: dodging snowballs, rooting for the defense, shivering. Fortunately, I have a flask shaped like a cell phone- and enjoyed warming Woodford Reserve despite the Prohibition.

While there were no style points in this win for Philadelphia, it is perhaps a marker of how far they have come this past six weeks. The Eagles got a careless game from McNabb- but in the end it only meant the Eagles cruised by two scores, rather than smash San Francisco out of the building.

San Francisco isn’t that bad- the49ers have only one other loss by more than a touchdown. They were coming off a pretty impressive road win in Arizona. They were desperate- had a long shot play-off bid to play for. And they still trailed most of the game by two-scores by a bored Philadelphia outfit.

Conversely, the defense rebounded in a big way. The 49ers put out there nifty tight end Vernon Davis- and the Eagles have struggled with that linebacker coverage assignment all year. With the return of nickel back Joselio Hanson from suspension, the Eagles tried something different.

I will begin by saying I love two things in pro-football: punting (always punt the ball) and the “nickel” defense (look for excuses to get the extra defensive back out there). And that is what the Eagles did Sunday. The pretty much substituted Hanson in for the third linebacker regardless of down and distance- and put him right over Davis.

A great truism in the NFL is that you can run on the other team’s nickel- and the 49ers did all day. Frank Gore was north of 100 yards on 16 carries. But big rushing days in the NFL just don’t translate in 24+ points unless you can throw effectively. With the Eagles quality corners clamping down on the wideouts, Hanson regular subtraction of Vernon Davis (three catches), and a poor day from 49ers’ quarterback Alex Smith- there was no 49ers formula to score.

One more thing on that. In the NFL, third-and-two is a nickel down (outside the red zone). Why? You gotta figure it is easier to run for two yards than throw it? 70% of rush attempts in the NFL go for two or more yards- probably even more when the nickel is out there rather than the base defense. Ain’t no one completing 70% of third and short passes- not to mention you're more inclined to turn it over/take a sack on any pass play.

But, in the League, third-and-two is like second-and-short and first down; it is a big play down. In a League where teams need to consistently generate 20+ yard plays to win, third-and-two is now a chance to go up top. Defenses are looking to jam receivers, safeties are in- there are chances to slip guys downfield one-on-one and still time check down to safety valves if the big play does not materialize. McNabb takes a couple shots deep each game third-and-short, including one to Jackson that worked. Teams see third-and-short as a big pass play down, and get the defenders out accordingly.

The only real disappointment was watching one-time Eagle prospect Michael Lewis really struggle. Once Lewis was yet another in an endless stream of quality defensive backs drafted by Philadelphia: 2nd round out of Colorado in 2002. Now, he is visibly slow, cheating in coverage- hobbled by leg injuries, one pick on the entire year. He did have eight tackles- but that was because the Eagles were just attacking him at every opportunity.

As Minnesota and New Orleans slide back weekly, the Eagles seem increasingly in the NFC mix. While it would probably be a mild upset for the Giants or Cowboys to win a play-off game at the Linc, it doesn’t seem much more of a stretch for the Eagles to win at New Orleans.

An Unsatisifying Appetizer

In a frankly boring exhibition, the Eagles routed the hapless Redskins last night 27-17- a thoroughly unsatisifying World Series appetizer. Yes, one can’t go too crazy on a football team after the total domination a division opponent on the road- leading by seventeen the entire second half until garbage time. But man… apparently the terrible loss to the Raiders did not exactly cause the Eagles to refrain from looking past this Washington outfit: a zillion penalties, that old offensive ennui we associate with a bad McNabb day, a second half devoid of offensive aggressiveness.

Still, after adding in the fourth starting MLB of the campaign, the defense seems back to fine- holding five of their six opponents to 17 points or less. Only the Saints have managed to humiliate them. Seems like the Eagles should be able to keep the offensively struggling Giants to something manageable this Sunday.

But, a pair of giant plays to DeSean Jackson aside, the Eagles did nothing on offense all night. McNabb's TD pass to Jackson came on a third-and-22 play- how can that happen? His sixty-yard plus TD run was helped in large part when two Redskins both couldn’t get off blocks by WR Maclin.

While not the biggest problem, the bloom is quickly coming off the rose for rookie RB Shady McCoy. He can’t block the pass at all (arguably worse than Ryan Moats right now) and 14-for-38 ain’t gonna cut it at the tailback position. He has got to do better- unfortunately for the Eagles, there are no viable candidates to absorb those touches.

The contributing second tailback position, a must with a Brian Westbrook roster presence, has been a problem forever around here. And it looks like Brain is out at least a month with conscussion symptoms. At my most ornery, I’ve never been a huge Westbrook fan- a guy paid like a franchise back who simply never could handle a weekly load of fifteen-twenty touches. That unreal strain on the roster made guys like Buckhalter and Reno Mahe key contributors at the worst times. Coupled with his blah play and ridiculous cap number, I can confidently predict Westbrook won’t be back in 2010. I don’t think the Eagles will miss his occasional contribution(s).

I just get a feeling the Eagles are trying to hold on until the offensive line completes its restoration to health- slowly, slowly, now three starters back- and then plays a few games together. Guard Todd Herremans was able to restore more order to the chaotic interior (until he wore down badly late)- as Haynesworth was not a complete terror. I think as the other guard and tackle come back, the inconsistency in rushing the football and pass rush pressure will ease. The skins are missing left tackle Chris Samuels and right guard Randy Thomas- look at the mess they are on offense. JC and Portis used to be able to play in spurts, right? Also, is there a more tired act in sports than those Washington fans dressed as Hogs?

I would like to make it official, I have had it with the Eagles punter. Let’s get some guys in here please.

In the end, it is hard to figure out where the Eagles are. They stand at 4-2. And that is a bad 0-1 against great team, and 4-1 versus some lousy ones (I don’t mark’em down that much for the Raiders- this is a hard game to expect perfection). So they are better than lousy and a clear step below great. That is a big gap- you could put them anywhere between real mediocre and good. Beats me. I started at 10-6, something like 4-2 in the division, still feel good about it.

Lastly, Ralph Vacchiano writes about the Giants today:

Are they a power running team? A passing team? A team led by a blitzing defense? What’s their true identity? And why does it seem to change week to week?

At least, we don’t have that problem: the Eagles are a throw it and throw it some more team!

The Blind Side

In The Blind Side, Michael Lewis sorts through the numbers to inform us that left tackle is probably the second most important position in the NFL offense- at least as measured by pay check, and to the extent pay measures simple capacity and not scarcity.

This probably explains why the Eagles- the NFL’s most arrogant franchise- is in flux at that position. By the way, I tend to believe all the left tackle hype- at least anecdotally. To wit, a few years back I once drove by and stopped into the Rams’ camp in Macomb, Illinois. Tony Banks was executing the two minute drill in a sort of seven-on-seven exercise- and he did not miss a throw, went up and down the field. But the minute they introduced the pass rush, even wearing the red jersey, Tony began to miss- and miss a lot. Pressure and danger people- organziations pay and players play up for safety.

Consequently, I am going to put my forecasting hat on- and try to figure out just what in heck the Eagles are doing vis-à-vis the left tackle position:

Shawn Andrews: Obviously, the Eagles secret fantasy when they selected this guy sixteenth overall in 2004 was to anoint him the left tackle for the next decade. They wavered in this assignment for reasons good (William Thomas’ prolonged solid play, the fact Andrews developed into the best offensive guard I’ve ever seen in Philadelphia) and bad (many hurts, mental illness).

Look, Andrews is going to get a look- he is a brilliant physical talent. But in the end, the move is probably too risky organizationally. Moving Shawn to tackle definitely weakens the interior of the line dramatically. Who takes his place? Do you want to move the best guard here in Philadelphia in a generation to generate perhaps an average tackle? One move could downgrade two positions. So unless he just looks awesome and healthy, I imagine he’s going to play next to his brother.

Todd Herremans: Obviously, the Eagles secret fantasy when they selected this guy in the fourth round was to anoint him the right tackle for the next decade. Like Andrews, he’s remained marooned at guard for a similar mixture of good, bad and the prolonged play of the incumbent. Two years ago, he had a bad season- which made them fearful to promote him. Last year, he was probably their best lineman- which would put him in line for “promotion” to tackle. In fact, had the opening the Eagles have been on the right side, I think Herremans would be penciled in.

Herremans probably has more utility as a tackle- he isn’t a true road grader type that lends itself to guard. He is very athletic- and has played serviceable tackle in emergencies. Frankly, that is what he is- a servicable guard or tackle who had an up, healthy, in his prime year last year. But, in the end, you can get by with "serviceable" a lot easier at guard than left tackle. Even though he might be better as a tacle, I'm not sure the Eagles want to be yoked to a guy for half-a-decade who aspires to "mediocre". Thus, he’ll stay in the interior- and be the chief back-up at the tackle position.

Thus, I think the Eagles are going to draft a tackle and play him right away. Which makes a lot of their off-season posturing make sense: the unreal accumulation of twelve(!) draft picks in a seven round draft, the retention of Lito Sheppard, the stashing of cap mad money versus giving it to the incumbent tackles.

Obviously, the success of such a strategy is ultimately part and parcel of picking the "right" guy. But it isn't without a certain inteligence. Fact: it is a whole lot easier to trade up now. Bad teams that populate the first half dozen picks have made a determination it is a waste of cap space to give big guaranteed numbers to guys who, for the most part, need some seasoning. Further, most share a view you get better faster giving up your pick for multiple later selections. And while the draft is a cap shoot, left tackle seems to be- within the context of a crapshoot- one of the easier positions to grade out and top guys can play right away.

So that is my prediction- the Eagles have identified one of these guys as ready to play- and will trade up to get him. Should this fail, I also would absolutely not be shocked if they select Andre Smith either- as they have a semi-credible back-up plan a left tackle should he blow up, and the guy is both an awesome player and awesomely crazy. Between Shawn Andrews and Andre Smith, one of them might be un-crazy enough to make sixteen starts.

I Wasn't All That Encouraged

The media is agog at the admittedly entertaining shoot-out the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys played last night. But honestly, I wasn’t all that encouraged.

First of all, the defense could not stop anyone. And Brian Dawkins was flat-out bad. You can’t play safety in the League if you cannot run with tight ends. He was chasing a lot of guys last night- and the Cowboys hit numerous big plays over the middle: how about that awful field goal drive to end the first half that gave the Cowboys not three free points, but made it a one score game again?

Paul Domowitch doesn’t want to pin the loss on McNabb. I don’t either. But still, how good was McNabb really? Again, very little offense, and nothing sustained, in the red zone. 281 yards passing in 37 attempts isn’t very good- and take out the "pretend" TD strike to DeSean Jackson – and McNabb is real close to pretty mediocre: 220-ish yards in 36 attempts, a fourth quarter turnover that defined brutal and game-changing. A veteran player simply cannot put the ball on the ground there. Throw in some sacks… I dunno- I thought the quarterback was a “C+” player last night.

Pus, the Eagles got a zillion breaks last night vis-à-vis scoring the football last night. They scored four touchdowns: one on defense, one on a nifty bubbly screen to Westbrook, and two were the referee put the ball on the one-yard line and gave’em four cracks to bust it in. They kicked a lot of field goals. Philadelphia was very effective moving the ball between the twenties for long stretches- but not so good in the red zone. Again. And it won’t get better- because Westbrook is the only player with any capacity to hurt opposing defenses in tight quarters. You wonder how many gift touchdowns the Eagles would have need to actually win this game? Four? Five?

And Philadelphia also couldn’t run it a lick or rush the passer.

Ultimately, the game was probably a free one. Unless you have the Eagles winning an insane 13-14 games, you are probably carrying this outing as a “loss”. But honestly, I saw nothing that moved me off my ten win forecast. They had a ton of fortune to stay with a team that was better than them- but not enough to win. And Westbrook, coupled with a merely good McNabb, is not enough to score touchdowns against quality defenses.

Back Up The Truck

The Eagles backed up the truck and handed $20M in “guaranteed” monies to corner Asante Samuel.

Guaranteed money is the most pertinent measuring stick in NFL contracts. I don’t worry too much about the year to year salary number. NFL teams are always free to dump guys who aren’t performing up to their cap number- subject to the fine associated with guaranteed portion of the contract. The Eagles probably are on hook here for four years- which means Samuel will only be 30 before both sides will be looking at the sensibilities of the deal. To me, the surest road to ruin in pro sports is throwing big money at thirty-something free agents; the Eagles seem to have mitigated the risk some.

I am also not kidding myself. Teams don’t open the vault like this except out of weakness. The existing talent (who figures to be gone, right? they ain’t paying that kind of money to have Lito play nickel? Especially if they can get a high first day pick for him)- Lito Sheppard cost half as much, with half the commitment. In a perfect world, he would continue to play at a pro-Bowl level and not be sidelined a third of the time- leaving the team a portion of $20 million guaranteed to overpay say that offensive guard and second tailback they so desperately need. But, the current corner ain’t working out- and to fix the problem the Eagles need to double the money and commitment- with the noted off-set of said pending trade.

Also, if you are continually economizing at linebacker and safety and interior o-line and wide receiver, you are forced to spend heavy where you don’t continually bargain hunt. With talent challenged bargains at many positions (I love JR Reed and Mikell as cost/reward ratios- but they also mean the other guys better actually be “good”) the Eagles ain’t in a position to be too cute. Samuel's contact isn’t the intelligent, savvy one we associate with Philadelphia; it is an expensive, risky one. By definition, they are valuing Samuel higher than anyone else in the League. Further, they are forced into that valuation. When you are forced into a personnel NFL move, it is evidence again of weakness, not strength.

I dunno; it seems like a wash. I guess maybe a slight plus because again, Samuel won't be 35 for half the deal and they ought to get a good pick for Lito. Otherwise it is a wash: one healthy very good corner for one semi-healthy, malcontent very good corner- at the price of double the money and comitment.

Still, in December the Eagles were at the level of "marginal wild card" team; they are still a marginal wild card team. Any hope for exponential success, both before and now, hangs on McNabb recovering his old form. Yes, Samuel figures to be both better and on the field more than Lito has been- at that aforementioned cost of two-three extra years of commitment and $4 million/year more. The on-field performance risk is less; the financial cap risk heightened.

It feels like a fair price for the performance boost. And in a capped League- if you pay a fair price per performance gained, you ain’t making up ground organizationally- just treading water.

Whither AJ

Under Andy Reid, the Philadelphia Eagles have had their faults. For one thing, they utterly define hubris. But they’ve won a lot of games too- and they’ve played this kind of quality entertaining road game against better teams through most of the era.

The Eagles show up and play pretty smart. The back-ups pressed into service are almost always credible and seem to know where to stand. They don’t turn it over. They make their kicks. On defense, the quality defensive secondary clamps down on your team's fave downfield threat. On offense, they understand that, in the pro game, to score 24+ on good defenses you have to throw the ball and throw it a lot- which they do- giving themselves at least a chance to score enough to win. They make you play well to beat them- execute your own football plays a dozen times without error, protect the ball, make your own kicks.

As a result, they get into a lot of games with teams, particularly on the road, that don’t necessarily come down to who is a better team, but rather who is more stupid or unlucky in the last ten minutes. Which, when Philadelphia is not the better outfit, is a better success scenario by definition. Unfortunately, last night, while the Eagles got into their “don’t be stupid” one-score game late, their quarterback was not up to the task.

That game, in a microcosm, is why AJ Feeley can’t stick in this League. He can make most of the throws, he can mange a game- but his risk-reward ratio just isn’t good (for one thing, more career picks than TDs). Frankly, I am not going crazy for AJ. Turnovers are the biggest non-talent factor in the NFL- and he generated and just dodged a bushel. He has skills to allow you to survive with him for a month or two- but a football season is ultimately about the numbers- and with Feeley mistakes add up.

Consequently, I’m really not into this talk about starting AJ Feeley this week. The quarterback situation is pretty clear. There are three quarterback roles in football: franchise starter, credible back-up, heir apparent. They've drafted Kolb. He's the heir. Feeley played a nice game- but you can't say great with all the turnovers. He fills the "credible" back-up role. But this season is not about 2007; it is about 2008 now. Philadelphia gas got to find out if McNabb can play the franchise role. So he's got to play- they can’t let this question hang- even if it costs games now.

As to the Patriots, Madden kept saying the Eagles threw a “blueprint” out there. I dunno- it is hard to write this when Philadelphia has just been torched for 400 yards of offense and thirty-something points- but I sort of think the Eagles matched up well defensively with the Patriots. Like the Eagles, New England is sort of impatient on offense- particularly vis-à-vis rushing the football. The Pats know that very frequent success throwing is the key to scoring in this League- and can get to very frequent throwing real quick.

And the Eagles can defend that elite receiver better than most. They can put a pro-bowl corner (Sheppard) on Randy Moss- and roll that Hall of Fame safety to provide help- and still have another quality corner on the other side. Of course, that means your nickel corner and other defensive backs sans help are going to get torched all night- but it is sort of survivable in the absence of Randy Moss going bezerk and a lack of fear that a quality tailback will gouge your team all night.

So I’m not sure how many other teams can duplicate that sort of scheme- for the Eagles’ faults. they present you with depth and quality in the defensive backfield. Maybe Pittsburgh?

Bigger picture: After starting 1-3, the Eagles held a gauntlet of three more losses over their head: Dallas twice- and this game. Making the play-offs was always largely a function of having to steal one of those games- or to concoct a further scenario where Philadelphia could get in at 9-7, maybe 8-8. Well, they’re about out of opportunities to steal games. The next two games are tough (Seattle and the Giants)- but they’re at home and they matter- which at 1-3 was not a certainty. That is hard stuff. I'd be a lot more into the moral victory angle yesterday if the Eagles weren't tied with, say, Washington.

Two of next three is the fair goal- get square at 7-7- and try to back in with wins at New Orleans and home for Buffalo.

Chicken

Gosh, the Eagles win yesterday seems to have brought cynics out everywhere. The PDN writes: you know that game last week between the Patriots and the Colts, that everybody said was like a midseason Super Bowl? This wasn't like that.

But not for Frank! People, it is still whipping the stupid Redskins. It NEVER gets old. As much as I want to dial off the V-Chip of hate and caring on this 2007 Eagles’ campaign, I never tire of defeating loathsome NFC Rivals. Oh, I detest Gibbs and their churlish, unattractive fans. Doesn't Coach look fey throwing the challenge flag above? Ending the Redskins season’s larger relevance- for most intents and purposes- makes me happy, lifts the gloom. I mean, for one afternoon, it is like “Yo Giants! You’re next.”

For a further example, the malfunctioning V-Chip is my head makes me enjoy this sort of reporting:

A Washington blitz had created an opportunity; there were three defenders in on McNabb, all of them suddenly irrelevant when the quarterback wristed a toss over their heads. Redskins linebacker Rocky McIntosh had an angle on Westbrook as the ramble began, but center Jamaal Jackson saw McIntosh coming and yelled the name of right guard Shawn Andrews. Andrews later explained that he knows to look back inside if he hears Jackson call his name. Andrews looked back, and McIntosh was vaporized.

"I pinned back and gave him what we call 'chicken,' " Andrews said. " 'Chicken' is when you thump a guy, real good."

The old maxim certainly rings true: winning always helps. Winning means that McNabb limped a little more forward- generated some big plays late, keeps that old risk-reward thing (4 TD passes versus one turnover) going. Postgame, McNabb and Reid proclaimed they “love” each other; locker room crises are defused for another week- buying time for the regime. Losing meant cries for Kolb and organizational chaos. I know what I vote for.

But I am a realist. Other than McNabb’s halting progress, no immediate 2007 concerns seem fixed. Still, if the season is now largely about finding out if McNabb can move forward- and resume both his role as franchise quarterback and trusted executor of Reid’s vision- then you can’t mark this sort of win down. As to the more immediate 2007 impact, well, Philadelphia is an okay team. Washington is probably okay too- but a loss to Dallas might move them back to doormat status right quick. But more likely, Philadelphia and Washington are both seven-eight win teams; they split. Seems fair.

Following up on the thought above, if you can’t mark the win down, you can’t mark it up too much either. I am not losing perspective; one thing I have learned about the NFC East is that as long as Joe Gibbs is in charge on the other sideline, you have more than a fighting chance. Unfortunately, some in Washington are coming to the same conclusion. But we can hope Gibbs will be back next year with no tangible advances in his medication.

Something always seems to work against the Redskins late: too many men on the field penalties, willfully taking the ball out of the hands of your most effective player in the red zone over and over again, poor time out management. You endlessly get this sort of horrid karma: the one time to safely take the delay penalty, save a time out, is when you botch the on field personnel for a chip shot field goal. Move it back five yards. Who cares? But the Redskins can’t even commit lucky delay penalties correctly.

Anyway, the Eagles have a chance to make their resurgence from September “bad” to November “sort mediocre” official this Sunday. Beat Miami as an eleven point colossus- and they present a pretty respectable 5-3 mark for an ersatz half a season. That is something positive before the schedule goes from hard to ridiculous in December. A semi-disappointing 8-8 with a solid story at quarterback is a whole lot better than a 5-11 Kolb-time meltdown- and this win was a step in that direction.

The Death Star

A joyous mob- well, joyous after we got our booing of McNabb out of our system and the touchdowns started raining down- got to imagine a raspy voiced Andy Reid intoning the magic words: Now witness the power of this fully operational battle station!

Well, that was encouraging people! Consequently, this will be a short post because, after all, what was there to complain about. Like what can I write after that: how to achieve more style points?

I mean, yes, sometimes the head coach- bless him- needs to be firmly reminded he has one of the two, three best offensive lines in professional football. And surely kudos must go to the beleaguered quarterback: McNabb went 21-for-26 for 381 yards with four touchdowns- completing eighteen balls in a row at one point.

But a lot of credit has to go the creation and execution of a scheme that allowed the offensive line to really get after people. The game was made “easy to play” for them: running on first down, pass blocking out of play-action sets that weren’t total frauds due to throwing every play, getting the more mobile members out on screens and stretch runs to the perimeter- lots of change of pace, style and tendencies. For example, they actually ran like five plays for the fullback in short yardage situations! The guys up front responded to playing downhill- and add big days from McNabb and Westbrook- and the situation for the Lions quickly got out of hand.

The Loins did get a ton of yards- generated some big plays in the passing game. I don’t know. The Eagles were missing both Dawkins and Sheppard, the Lions do have skilled wide outs and I don’t know how to maintain the requisite intensity up four scores most of the time. And the Lions did keep Kitna out there pitching until the absolute bitter end. Still a lot of mysteries on that side of the ball- but in this sort of rout I am not sure if there are relevant lessons- short of “Watch out New England!”

Still, no matter how impressive the win, I wrote last week that it means little if they can’t carry it over to beat a Giants’ team that is one step better than, say, a “mess”. But more accurately, they probably need to get two of the next three: Giants (A), Jets (A), Bears (H)- to feel like they’ve righted themselves. Even with Dallas increasingly looking like a real danger to flirt with eleven win territory, they probably could lose one of those three and still be in the divisional mix- but they’d be looking at having to complete an outright, and problematic, Dallas sweep.

Cursing Wildly At The Television

In Patton, George C. Scott bemoans a predicament of his own making, opining on how terrible consequences can from so small an oversight- the loss of an entire command for yelling at and manhandling a coward.

Andy Reid ought to take a moment and internalize that. We sit here and kvetch about pro football players and innate talent- but you know, like seven games in ten come down to turnovers and who plays “better” (or even less stupid).

By any measure, the Eagles are a successful NFL franchise with a good on-field product. But all the weaknesses of their approach- their contemptuous attitude toward the pre-season, their refusal to admit the talent mistakes they do make, the amazing correlation between situational importance and the likelihood someone bad (Tomas Tapeh or Greg Lewis) or mis-cast (Mr. Reed) will be handling the ball- were all on display Sunday.

Speaking of organizational weaknesses, Greg Lewis has got to go. This guy has now parlayed three decent-to-good games like three years ago into an NFL career seemingly without end. Somehow he’s become the most irreplaceable fourth wide-out in history. Also, it appears Reno Mahe is back- turning me into a liar. Someone get garlic and a stake, I can’t watch that character anymore. It isn’t so much he’s bad- he has just worn out his welcome with me. And it gives Reid another guy to scheme odd 4th-and-2 calls for.

It is so disappointing because the Eagles rarely lose games like this- games where they fumble punts repeatedly, fumble punts with a minute to go, general idiocy. Other teams do that playing them. Philadelphia is usually smart, heady- particularly in the waning moments of close games. I doubt they had the most talent in NFC East last year- but there is no doubt which was the smartest team in the division.

I mean, we have seen this script in Philadelphia for like years now. They get outplayed (1st quarter), or some breaks go against them (fumble a punt featuring an iffy uncalled interference call)- but they don’t do anything egregious. They hang around- turn the game into a one score, fourth quarter, who makes a mistake first kind of thing. Anyone who has watched the Eagles knew that Green Bay, with that flailing offense, was simply not going to generate big first downs on the defense. They got their late stop(s)- and now the script kicks in: the Eagles were going to generate mistake free offense for two first downs, Akers makes the kick like he always does and we all go home.

There is solace. The worrisome defense was, well, pretty great all day. Four brutal turnovers, plus a bad day from the quarterback- and the Packers still needed a miracle to rally for the win at home. The Eagles can go a long way to getting this behind them by whomping on the two weak sisters coming to the Linc and, of course, catching some punts.

Your 2007 NFC East Champions!

Sitting here, pondering- no deep feelings appear. Frankly? The Philadelphia Eagles just don’t feel like any sort of great mystery this year. The facts are straightforward. Late last season during the play-off stretch drive, Philadelphia played all three division opponents on the road- and defeated each in increasingly capable performances. Moreover, they defeated the Giants in a tough overtime play-off game. Taken together, it seems compelling evidence that the rebuilding project, off the 2005 disappointment, continues apace.

The play-off loss in New Orleans- on the road, six day week, with the back-up quarterback- was encouraging as well. Honestly, I am not sure if New Orleans or Chicago would have been favored in a play-off game in Philadelphia. Was there ultimately much difference between the top teams in the NFC last year?

And to be frank, I’m pretty sure that is true again this year. With the return of McNabb, I will take a lot of convincing to believe that any of the NFC East teams have closed the gap. The Eagles would likely be favored to win this division even if Feeley was the quarterback. I imagine the Eagles are square in the mix with what passes for an NFC power these days- and still a clear step behind the AFC elite.

But past that, essentially a sort of repeat of 2006- resounding division championship, in the NFC mix- I am less confident. Looking back at my post mortem for the 2005 campaign, I was struck at just how big the rebuilding job was. And it simply isn’t finished yet. Of the major areas of concern: defensive front, linebacker, wide receiver, kick returners and interior offensive line- only the offensive needs seems addressed in total (particularly the offensive line).

The defensive front is short a few productive bodies. Worse, some of the existing bodies are either injury prone or young and unproven. It probably is a bad unit. The linebackers are certainly better than 2005- but lack seasoning and are counting on some “hope” in both the injury and experience department- and are probably short a body here too. Add questions about Considine- particularly in the problematic run-stuffing effort- and it is hard to see the defense being a good unit. Teams won’t be able to generate big plays in the passing game regularly against the secondary- which will mitigate any real bad tendencies. But the defense’s upside is merely “okay-plus”- and more likely will be exposed some Sundays.

I just can’t shake the feeling that this merely is year two of the two year reconstruction- that this team is pointed toward runs in 2008 and 2009. I know certainty is an impossible thing is professional sports. But I also know that Reid is all about the plan- and Andy is quite capable of convincing himself and acting accordingly (perhaps correctly) that the “best” window is still a year or two ahead. The turnover in key nucleus talent only has had but one campaign in which to be evaluated and tweaked. Maybe this is a year to further establish the young corps at wide receiver, offensive line, figure exactly which of these guys on the defensive front seven can play- and who needs to be replaced by the impact free agent. The quarterback can still make one more run- let’s get to 2008 before we push all the chips, make the big signing.

I went into camp thinking 11-12 wins- but as Rich Hoffman says, August has not been too kind and special teams questions at punter, long snapper and the return game will cost them one, even two games, this season. So now, I am square on nine, maybe ten wins. Don’t get me wrong. The NFC isn’t strong- so the Eagles very real professional competence makes them a player in the conference picture- particularly if they get thirty starts from Westbrook and McNabb combined. But there isn’t enough here to dominate NFC or anything past that.

Axe-Man

Jeremiah Trotter, warrior and class act, was one of my favorite Philadelphia Eagles.

His outright release is being commerated like someone died on the Eagles’ website. But, there was an awful lot to like about the guy from a fans standpoint. He carried our flag. He had that motor. He went to Washington, ripped that team and fans as indolent, and returned to Philadelphia chastened and full of love for us.

But he had to turn 30- which is a no-no on Reid’s roster. He was making a ton of bucks- and his replacement, I imagine Omar Gaither, was younger and, while not maybe “better”, certainly not four million dollars worse. And that is what the modern NFL is about- you cultivate the young guy until he’s within a hair’s breadth of the veteran- and make the switch. The Eagles got “younger” and “cheaper”- which is part and parcel of success in the League now, right along with “better”.

With a cap, you can’t normally keep multi-million dollar players for depth (outside of quarterback) either. Plus, as a ‘backer, Trotter was going to have to play special teams- and his increasing lack of mobility made that problematic.

The Eagles, in the past, could survive that foible because they could afford to have Trotter sell out completely to stop the run with their plethora of quality DBs. But some of their worst match-up problems last season were TEs and pass-catching backs. There are obviously some good ones in the NFC East, repeatedly tormenting Trotter in bad down and distance situations: 1st and 10, 2nd and 5, etc. The Eagles were forced to use a lot more nickel than made sense normally- just to get Trotter out of there.

That is not to say Trotter was a bad player- just one you had to find a specific, limited role for. If he could play straight ahead, down hill, he was still a pretty good player (not a Pro-Bowl one though anymore). But the Eagles have a second year, first day draft pick, who played pretty well for the most part, on the roster. Omar figures to improve. If you aren’t going to play him- then why draft him? And if he plays close to Trotter’s level, well, Jeremiah has to go elsewhere.

Trial

Jeff Garcia is back in the papers today- playing golf or something- but since he was doing it with McNabb it is what passes for news. I guess because the story came out before the Flyers decided they’d rather compete next seasons as Nashville. Yo Flyers' guys- we still have too many Finns!

Now, I am sympathetic to Jeff Garcia here- up to a point. He had a great year, played out a great story, for half a year in Philadelphia. Press and fans were sure Jeff deserved a term as caddy to Donovan McNabb in Philadelphia. And leaving such a great situation- really tailored for Garcia- had to distress him some.

But I never for a moment thought he’d be coming back- and it was pretty obvious the Eagles from Day One thought that too. I am not going to re-hash all the reasons- see the post- but quickly:

We know Andy Reid thinks AJ Feeley can play and serve as a very effective back-up. Heck, he’s already won in that role under Reid here before. Throw in the fact AJ’s younger and cheaper, and Garcia’s retention was always unlikely. Also, from the moment the season ended, the Eagles clearly were taking a first day quarterback in this draft- which means that guy was ticketed soon for a role on the active roster. With McNabb’s recent inability to finish a season, the Eagles were not entering 2007 without a back-up they think can play and a high round draft choice to develop. That is three qbs who aren't just roster filler, one making franchise wages and two making qb money (ie. higher than average for a non-starting roster spot), and tieing up even more money at the back up quarterback position for Garcia- at the expense of the cost effective AJ- becomes problematic.

You can’t feel too sorry for Garcia- who has gone from being washed up to making $5 million as the starting quarterback-to-be in Tampa. Both sides got what they wanted- and it is hard to argue the separation now isn’t in the interest of both parties.

Rolling the Dice with Andy

The Eagles- bless’em- threw the dice here. Man, quarterback is oh so tricky- and to spend your first pick of the day here...

For example, there are probably thirty guys in the NFL playing linebacker that are pluses most Sundays- and at least another thirty that won’t cost you games running them out there each week. But quarterback… well, by definition, if there are 32 starters, only sixteen are “above average”- and of that sixteen some will get hurt, and some won’t sustain their success for five years. Worse, that #16 QB is someone like David Carr. Or Tony Romo.

Right now, there really are only a dozen guys in the whole freakin’ League that have had either sustained success or can realistically expect it. Figuring a top quarterback plays a decade, then on average, only one guy a year entering the League that deserves the “franchise quarterback” tag. People kill Ramsey- but he’s certainly one of the Top 50 qbs on the planet. If he were a linebacker, that would be fine- he’s be the second best ‘backer on a decent team- but the cut for quality in qbs is so much higher.

Kolb could turn out to be the second best quarterback in the entire draft- then it follows around the 18th-20th best qb in the whole world- which is something like Joey Harrington, right? Conversely, the second best defensive tackle in the draft could be a pro-bowler for a generation. It’s hard to take that sort of gamble unless you really, really need to. And the Eagles don't.

Sigh. The vast, vast consensus was that Russell and Quinn were the 1 and 1A prospects in this draft- and Kolb, Beck and Stanton were the next tier. Yes, you can justify taking Kolb higher than “consensus”- ‘cause he wasn’t certainly, without a doubt, going to be on the board the next time around. And if he’s one of those special ten-twelve guys- no will care where you took him.

To me, that is the difference. You “miss a little” choosing a defensive lineman- and get a guy who is the fiftieth best player in the League at his position, you get a high quality starter. You “miss even a little less” choosing a quarterback, you get the 25th best qb in the League, and that guy gets booed out of the stadium. Normally, I tend to cut teams a break selecting quarterbacks- you need one, it is so darn hard that maybe you need to invest picks there.

Kolb has got as good a chance as any of his immediate peers (Stanton & Beck), he wasn’t going to be on the board much longer, they traded down a dozen spots to get him (picked up an extra 2, 3 and 5- round selection- maybe they could afford a flyer) so I’m okay- but just okay- with the selection. It is a gamble- and I hate to gamble if I don't need to. I get the rationale. And again, I really want to cut them a break cause it is a quarterback they're reaching for (not, say a safety)- just don't expect me to be happy about it.

To me, their best pick was Tony Hunt- from Penn State. He shouldn’t have been on the board that late, he should be able to contribute a dozen or so touches at a higher level than Correll Buckhalter, he is healthier than Buckhalter, and as a gifted power runner he complements Westbrook. Now, the team can get rid of two of this uninspiring trio: Ryan Moats, Buckhalter and Reno Mahe- which is cause for much rejoicing.

And the trade was a good one. Trading down in the new vogue in the NFL- and it makes sense to me- particularly since the Eagles, once the safety from Miami went off the board, clearly weren’t in love with anyone. Moving down a dozen or so spots for a three and five seems shrewd. The Eagles recent draft history suggests a certain quantity over quality strategy works best. But that end from Purdue must now never touch McNabb though.

The rest of the draft was unremarkable- the risk-reward trade-off seemed adequate- and the trade agasin reasonable, a plus. I feel ultimately nonplussed- nothing here to cost them dominance of NFC East, nothing here to close the gap on the League’s elite.

Clinton Portis Gets Some Bad News

Well, well, well... the Eagles moved, shall we say, aggressively, to shore up the linebacker situation. You know they really perceived a problem there- as they hate to spend money on ‘backers- and now they got two earning north of $4 million.

Certainly the Eagles got the singular better talent and the upside: Takeo Spikes is a great player when healthy. But Buffalo got rid of a lot of risk- a huge financial commitment to a guy who hasn’t played very much at the high level indicated by his contract for two years. So moving past who got the better of the deal- the more relevant question is “was it a good trade?” or “does it help?” I think it probably is and does.

First, Takeo Spikes can’t possible be worse than Dhani Jones- who was not only the worst linebacker in the NFC East playing regularly (for two years now!) but also the worst regular on the football team. Darwin Walker was a serviceable defensive tackle- a position where serviceable players are a premium. But the Eagles have depth, provided by young players with escalating contracts who need to play there to justify their financial commitment level- and the fact that Walker is a decent player at a premium position made him a chip that could be leveraged.

The money thing is a little less onerous than it looks on paper. Walker is scheduled to make $1.3 million this season (and realistically had to be traded or extended- so you have to count him really for more than that) and Dhani Jones something near that- plus a missing contract for the draft pick- probably absorbs two-thirds of what they are expecting to pay Spikes to jack up Portis and Eli.

Candidly? They dealt from strength to fill a problem- and consequently, the Eagles hand simply looks better at the ‘backer position. Every guy projected to be there: Trotter, Spikes, Omar Gaither, Chris Gocong, the certain to come first day draft pick- has issues- but now a whole lot less needs to “go right” to get an upgraded serviceable rotation out of that mix. And if Spikes plays like he did late in 2006 for a whole season, they might be darn good.

The Eagles could mess up their run in 2008 with the old mix of linebackers- and as importantly, the departure of Walker isn’t costing them a game one way or the other. Either Patterson, Bunkley, Reagor can play and contribute or can’t- Walker wasn’t going to tip the equation of quality defensive tackle play one way or the other.

Considine Will Be Back!

I’ve been meaning to get back and to finish fixing the Eagles. We did the “easy” part already- a minimal retooling of a Top 5 offense is a little easier than wrapping your hands around the defense. The Eagles' defense was a pretty maligned unit last year. They weren't bad exactly- you could move the ball on them between the 20s- but teams couldn't throw it at all in the red zone, which allowed the Eagles to stack the box against the run in tight, thus stop teams and keep "points against" in the top half of the League. Remove the Colts road disaster, and the numbers look even better.

On defense, a lot of decisions are sort of made for them- as opposed to having others decide for them on offense. For example, after the 2005 debacle, the Eagles knew they had immediate problems at linebacker and defensive tackle- and drafted accordingly. It is now showtime for those first day draft picks Broderick Bunkley and Chris Gocong. They still have trouble with the established players at those two positions, those two guys interniships are over, and they are the fixes. On paper, they have appropriate pedigrees- and they are the solutions that’ll be presented.

The Eagles ask only steady, unremarkable play from their linebackers- and boy, do they get unremarkable play in bunches from this group: they get no lift from the linebacker play, no big plays, no sacks, no turnovers. Dhani Jones is gone, no one in Philadelphia can deal with him anymore, he is just oh so tiring.

Unfortuately, there are problems elsewhere on defense with higher priority- so I think they are going to be content to try and survive with Gocong, Trotter and Gaither. That is one mystery player, one declining player and one young player who probably will be okay- not exactly a promising situation. It is the one position on the field where they might shock us all- and draft their terrific need here- get someone they think can start. I suppose it almost has to improve with the departure of Dhani Jones, the worst starter on the team by far. I dunno- it is the most vexing position they have, the one with the least good options.

Sheppard, Brown and Dawkins are mortal locks to return, Lewis and Hood gone. Oddly, the departure of Hood hurts more. Hood was a great nickel back, provided “starter level” play when called on to play a lot, at a very friendly cap number. They’ll miss him, which means a first day draft pick is gonna be spent at corner- as they need a cheap guy who can play today here. I like William James/Joselio Hanson fighting for the dime spot- the perfect veteran depth versus improving young player conundrum.

I railed about young Considine all year- but my attitude toward the young man has softened a little. He isn’t the first rookie to struggle when asked to play a whole lot of safety in big spots in the NFL. And when you struggle at safety, you can look real bad. But he wasn’t all that terrible, I am more than a little confident he might be a whole lot better with a whole year under his belt. He’s cheap, young, durable- things you love in a every down roster spot. I think they’ll be more than okay here. There was some talk about drafting a safety to replace Dawkins in a year or two- but Quintin Mikell quited down that talk with a superior, big hitting last month or so of the season.

The defensive line also presents some intractable problems: overpaid vets underperforming their contracts (Kearse and Howard), inconsistent veterans who might not deserve rotation time (Rayburn and Walker), mixing "nicely" with younger unproven players. Mike Patterson is the only sure thing going upfront. Part of the hard part here is that all these veterans have played well for stretches, then disappeared. I’m sure they are going to go with mostly a mixture of young players (Cole, Thomas, Patterson, Bunkley) they groomed this year- and hope they blossom- a strategy with merit. Add the vets they are sort of stuck with (Howard, Walker and Kearse)- and hope they stay healthy.

Bottom line, there were a ton of fixes identified after 2005- safety, outside inebacker, defensive line- and every position on that list has a young player assigned to it that was groomed in 2006 (Considine, Gocong, Gaither, Bunkley, etc.) that frankly needs to continue to evolve and to play better. There are no more immediate reinforcements.

They suffered some playing these guys, found some who couldn’t play (Matt McCoy). So if the offensive story is what decisions other teams make concerning our free agents, then the defensive story is the disaster of 2005 identified positions of need, the Eagles have auditioned and seasoned players in these roles, now they need to be young core veterans to stop being rookies and contribute for sixteen weeks.