Monday, January 25, 2010

A Triumph For My World View

The AFC Championship game this weekend was a triumph for the world view of Frank Helps You Think It All out. At this blog, we eschew running the football, and embrace a world view of pass, pass, pass. And mercy, do the Colts eschew running the football.

Look at these embarrassing numbers: 1294 total yards rushing, 3.5 yards/carry, dead last in rushing. All terrible- yet eerily similar to the recent Patriots’ dynasty. The Patriots didn't care to run it a lick either.

Sure, everyone knows winning is easier with a franchise quarterback. But not every team is willing to make the strategic commitment to it. You get two chances in the League to throw downfield against the base defense- on first down and third and short. Accordingly, you should be throwing like crazy on these two “traditional” run oriented downs. Show me a team running more on first down than throwing, and I’ll show you a team struggling to score.

You want to know how the Eagles won eleven games with a not so good defense and offensive line? Throwing the football on first down! Throwing the football on every down!

Accordingly, I don’t think you can bet enough on Indianapolis. I’m not exactly sure when the Saints peaked this year (late November?)- but it ain’t right now. Amidst the euphoria in the Dome, one might gently point out the Vikings played both stupidly and horribly- a zillion crippling turnovers and penalties. There were some shaky official calls. I have no idea what the record of NFL teams is when coughing up five turnovers-but it has to be something like zero for one thousand. And it was still a desperate affair at the end.

The Saints just aren’t great on offense anymore. Right now, Brees is not a guy who is going to rescue you with a 300+ yard explosion. None of the New Orleans’ backs scare me- and even mediocre offenses move the ball on the Saints defense. You need to be great on either offense or defense to be great, right?

There is no spread in my morning paper- but I’d be inclined to take the Colts by more than a score in a prop-style bet. I look at New Orleans- right now, post-November- and see a ten-ish win team that rode a good (obviously earned) draw: beating a ten-ish win teams at home off a bye and catching a Vikings team that was a mess and still went for 28 points and overtime.

The Saints step up big in class now, away from home... I think they are in trouble.